WASHINGTON - Large majorities of Iraqis
believe that the United States has no intention of
ever withdrawing all its military forces from
their country and that Washington's reconstruction
efforts have been incompetent at best, according
to a survey released here on Tuesday.
At
the same time, however, only 35% of Iraqis - most
of them Sunni Arabs - believe coalition forces
should withdraw within six
months, although if they did
so, a majority said it would have a beneficial
impact, as many prominent Democrats and other war
critics in the US have argued.
Skepticism
about US plans in Iraq is particularly pronounced
among the country's Sunni population, who were far
more negative about virtually every aspect of
post-invasion Iraq than their counterparts in the
Shi'ite and Kurdish communities, which together
are believed to account for 75-80% of the
country's population.
Indeed, despite the
strong Sunni Arab participation in December's
parliamentary elections, a whopping 88% of the
community approves of "attacks on US-led forces"
in Iraq, with 77% voicing "strong approval" - a
level of hostility that presents a serious
challenge for US officials now negotiating with
Sunni insurgent leaders, as reported in the
February 6 issue of Newsweek magazine.
By
comparison, 41% of Shi'ites said they approved of
such attacks, while 16% of Kurds agreed, by far
the most pro-US of the three groups.
The
survey, the latest in a series that has probed
Iraqi opinion since the March 2003 US-led
invasion, was designed by the Program on
International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the
University of Maryland for WorldPublicOpinion.org
and conducted through face-to-face interviews of
1,150 randomly selected Iraqi adults in all 18
Iraqi provinces in early January, three weeks
after the December elections.
While Sunni
Arabs were over-represented in the sample, the
data were weighted according to each group's
actual estimated share of the total Iraqi
population: Shi'ite Arab, 55%; Sunni Arab, 22%;
Kurd, 18%; and other groups, 5%.
The
survey results, which come amid intensified
jockeying in Baghdad over the constitution of a
new government, are a mixed bag for the
administration of President George W Bush.
His approval ratings in the US have fallen
dangerously over the past year, in substantial
part because of the perception that he lacks a
viable plan for "success" in Iraq, even as he
rejects pressure by Democrats and prominent
members of the foreign-policy establishment to
announce a timetable for the withdrawal of the
140,000 US troops there.
The survey found
considerable skepticism about Bush's frequent
promises not to maintain US military forces in
Iraq "a day longer" than is necessary for ensuring
its stability.
Eighty percent of
respondents said they believe the US intends to
maintain permanent military bases in Iraq,
including 79% of Shi'ite Arabs, 92% of Sunnis and
66% of Kurds, some of whose leaders have quietly
suggested that Washington would be welcome to
establish bases in Kurdistan in northern Iraq.
More than three of four respondents (76%)
said Washington would also reject a request by any
Iraqi government that emerges from last month's
elections to withdraw its forces within six
months. Two-thirds of Shi'ites said Bush would
refuse to do so; 77% of Kurds; and a nearly
unanimous 94% of Sunni Arabs.
The survey
also found broad support for the conclusions of an
all-party November conference convened by the Arab
League, which, with the apparent encouragement of
US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, has tried
to mediate among the various Iraqi communities in
order to prevent the country from disintegrating
and hasten an eventual withdrawal.
The
conclusions on which all parties agreed included a
rejection of terrorist methods, particularly
against civilians; the inclusion of all groups in
the political process; and the establishment of a
timetable for US withdrawal.
Despite the
approval, particularly in the Sunni community, of
attacks against US-led forces in Iraq, the survey
found nearly 99% rejection of terrorist methods
and 97% approval for an inclusive political
process. It also found 87% support for
establishing a timetable for withdrawal, although
Kurds were substantially less supportive of the
idea than the other two groups.
Among
those who support a timetable, however, opinion
was evenly split at 35% favoring a withdrawal
deadline of six months and the same percentage
preferring a "gradual" withdrawal over two years.
The finding was consistent with a November BBC
poll that found that two-thirds of Iraqis opposed
"the presence of coalition forces in Iraq",
although that poll did not ask how long they
wanted the forces to remain.
The shorter
period was most popular among Sunnis, 83% of whom
opted for the six-month option. By contrast, only
22% of Shi'ite respondents favored the six-month
plan, while 49% preferred the two-year period. A
majority of 57% of Kurds said foreign forces
should leave only when the situation improves.
Ironically, 41% of respondents who approve
of attacks against US-led forces said they did not
prefer the shorter timetable.
"One
possible explanation is that the attacks are not
prompted by a desire to bring about an immediate
withdrawal, but to put pressure on the US so that
it will eventually leave," said PIPA director
Steven Kull, who pointed to the prevailing
skepticism over Bush's promise to withdraw US
troops as soon as Iraqi forces can take their
place.
He said 90% of those who approve of
attacks against US-led forces believe Washington
wants to have permanent bases in Iraq.
At
the same time, a majority of Iraqis said they
believed that certain key conditions that fuel
insecurity and fears of civil war would improve.
Two-thirds said the day-to-day security of
ordinary citizens would increase. Sixty-one
percent said inter-ethnic violence and the
presence of foreign fighters would decline.
Nearly three in four voiced confidence
that contending factions would be more likely to
cooperate, and two-thirds said key public services
would improve and crime would decline.
In
each case, Sunni Arabs were distinctly more
optimistic than the other two major groups. Kurds,
on the other hand, were most doubtful.
Differences between the three groups were
even more marked in their assessments of the
current political situation. While two-thirds of
all Iraqis said the December elections were free
and fair and the new parliament will be "the
legitimate representative of the Iraqi people",
more than nine out of every 10 Sunnis disagreed
with both propositions.
The survey found
Sunnis in general to be much more negative about
the future. While nearly two-thirds of the whole
sample said Iraq is headed in the "right
direction" - a sharp increase from the 49% who
said so in a pre-election survey by the
International Republican Institute in November -
93% of Sunnis said it was going in the wrong
direction.
