Iraqi visions on the road to Damascus
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - As Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr makes headlines in Damascus
visiting Syrian President Bashar Assad, the situation in Iraq remains tense,
with violence surging amid negotiations between all parties to find a new prime
minister.
On Wednesday, a car bomb nearly killed Education Minister Abdul-Falah Hassan,
while on Tuesday gunmen shot down Sheikh Kamal Nazzal, the head of the city
council in Fallujah.
Capturing the limelight amid these events is Muqtada, the rising star of Iraqi
politics who has emerged since 2003 as one of the
strongest men in the Shi'ite community, despite his age - 33.
Muqtada does not have the charm of a cleric like former Iranian president
Mohammed Khatami, the charisma of Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah, or the
wisdom or religious standing of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most
influential cleric in Iraq. But Muqtada does have a reputation for piety and
nationalism that has imposed him as a force to be reckoned with in
Iraqi politics.
Muqtada's visit to Syria has several objectives. One is that he wants to
promote himself as an Iraqi politician and not just a resistance leader in the
Shi'ite community. He wants to bolster his senior pan-Arab and pan-Islamic
contacts to empower himself among Shi'ites against opponents who are older and
better-connected, such as Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim of the Supreme Council of the Iraqi Revolution (SCIR).
Muqtada has already visited Saudi Arabia and Iran and has established himself
as a politician and not just a rebel, by having deputies from his electoral
list voted into the Iraqi National Assembly in December's elections.
Another reason for Muqtada's visit is that he wants to solicit the support of
Syria, which still commands influence over many Iraqis, including former Iraqi
Ba'athists, and Iraqis living in Syria.
This is to support the candidacy of Nadim al-Jabiri, head of the al-Fadila
al-Islamiyya Party and a disciple of Muqtada's slain father, to become the new
prime minister. Jabiri is backed by Muqtada against the better-established Adel
Abdul-Mehdi, who is supported by Muqtada's opponents in Shi'ite politics.
Muqtada's visit to Damascus comes shortly after his visit to Tehran last month,
where he met Ali Larijani, the chief negotiator on nuclear weapons under
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. From Syria, Muqtada declared: "I am at the
service of Syria and Iran. I will defend all Muslim countries with all means."
At first glance, Muqtada's honeymoon with Syria is not surprising for a man who
has led two rebellions against the Americans since 2003 and for a regime that
embraced his anti-American conduct. Both Muqtada and Damascus wish to see the
Americans out of Iraq. Both are Arab nationalists in rhetoric and belief. Both
want a united Iraq and both want to prevent the creation of a federation with
an autonomous Shi'ite state in southern Iraq. Neither one wants chaos or civil
war to prevail in Iraq.
A closer look, however, shows great differences between the Shi'ite rebel and
the secular regime in Damascus. The Syrians, although strongly allied to Iran,
have not been pleased by the rise of Islam-driven politicians in Iraq since the
downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Although many of these same politicians were allies and residents of Damascus
in the 1990s, Syria preferred dealing with them when they were in the
opposition, and not when they became leaders in Baghdad. Political Islam
strikes a raw nerve for authorities in Damascus, and all of the new
power-brokers in Iraq are products of Islamic parties.
Muqtada is no exception, having inherited authority from his father, ayatollah
Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr (killed by Saddam in 1999), and building an image for
himself as a religious leader, waging a holy war against the Americans.
Rather than see the clerics in power, Syria would have wanted a secular
politician like former prime minister Iyad Allawi, who had the will and way to
crush the Islamic insurgency in Iraq. The Syrians might support an
anti-American resistance that is not motivated by political Islam, but
they certainly are not pleased with Islamic fundamentalists running loose in
Baghdad.
If they fail in Iraq, these fundamentalists might come to Syria and threaten
the Syrians and the Syrian regime. Muqtada led the Shi'ite insurgency in 2003
and certainly has his connections in the Sunni insurgency, waged by former
Ba'athists loyal to Saddam and the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq, headed by Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi.
Muqtada, Syria and the Sunni fighters might disagree on a variety of issues,
but they have a common objective in wanting to drive the Americans out of Iraq.
Also, Muqtada wants a united Iraq, while Iran wants a Shi'ite district in the
south. Stuck in the middle is Syria, which supports Muqtada's calls for
centralization, yet finds itself in need of cozying up to Iran, because
of Tehran's support for Damascus since its increased isolation after the
murder last year of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri.
Syria simply cannot say "no" to Tehran. Muqtada is a traditional enemy of
Hakim, a man created by Iran in the 1980s along with his SCIR and his Badr
Organization. Both men compete for leadership of the Shi'ite community and
Muqtada dismisses Hakim as a Iranian stooge, with his supporters boasting that
unlike Hakim, their leader "was made in Iraq".
While Muqtada is popular among the poor Shi'ites living in the slums of
Baghdad, Hakim has a power base among the landowners and upper middle class in
the Shi'ite community. Hakim has more deputies in the newly elected assembly,
but clearly Muqtada controls the streets in Baghdad.
Shortly before his visit to Damascus, Muqtada rallied thousands of
demonstrators in the southern city of Kut to condemn Denmark and the publishing
of cartoons insulting Mohammed, the Prophet of Islam. A gunman, believed to be
a Muqtada loyalist, shot at Danish soldiers and a bomb was defused near their
military base in Qurnah, southeast of Baghdad. Muqtada's man, Salam al-Maliki,
the minister of transportation, froze all contacts between his ministry and
Danish companies operating in Iraq.
A US-sponsored poll in 2004 showed that 68% of Iraqis supported Muqtada in some
way. An impressive 32% "strongly supported" him and 36% "somewhat supported"
him. He ranked as the third-most popular figure in Iraq, behind Sistani and
Hakim, but way ahead Allawi, who was opposed by 61%.
Muqtada has made it very clear to the world that Syria is his friend - for now.
One message to the US was to decrease pressure on Syria, meaning also
decreasing pressure on Hezbollah, Syria's last ally in Lebanon. Another
message sent loud and clear by Muqtada from Damascus was that he was
committed to a new Iraq led by Shi'ites.
Lately, the Americans have realized that none of their objectives will
materialize in Iraq if the Shi'ite clergy rule from Baghdad. All they would
have done is replace a secular dictatorship with an Islamic one. That is why
they have started to push both the secular Shi'ites and the Sunnis into power,
to make it impossible for the clerics to create a new government on their own.
This has angered everybody, from Muqtada to Hakim. Muqtada wants to create a
theocracy in Iraq; an Iran-style regime in Baghdad, but without Iranian
intervention. He calls this an "Islamic democracy", something which the US will
never tolerate. In the long run, nor will the Syrians.
At this stage, however, Syria cannot stand up and openly oppose the rise of
clerical rule in Baghdad because this would upset the Iranians. Therefore, it
has objected to none of the four candidates for the job of prime minister,
although if it had its real say, Syria would veto them all.
At this stage, however, Syria is playing nice, and in private, its leaders
might have promised to support Muqtada in his political maneuvering inside
Iraq. On one front Damascus has to show solidarity with Iran and Muqtada, while
in secret it supports the US initiative to bring secular rule to Iraq. This is
the game that Syria has to play in the months to come, both to create a say for
itself in the new post-Saddam Iraq, and also to build bridges with the
Americans.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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