DAMASCUS - What happened in Iraq
over the weekend was a neatly planned "white"
coup, carried out by the Americans, Kurds, secular
Shi'ites and Sunnis, on the United Iraqi Alliance
(UIA) and its candidate for the premiership,
Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
After much bickering, they
came out and asked Jaafari to step down, demanding
that the UIA nominate another Shi'ite politician
for the job. For its part, the UIA has insisted on
maintaining
Jaafari, but is bound to give
in to the mounting pressure practiced by
practically everybody in Iraq.
Jaafari's flaws apparently
outnumber his positive attributes. The coalition
wanting to bring him down complained that he had
failed, as the previous premier, to bring security
to Iraq, failed to combat unemployment, failed to
advance infrastructure, failed to crush the
insurgency, and failed to protect Sunnis and their
places of worship during the bloody events that
followed the terrorist attack on the Golden Mosque
in Samarra on February 22.
Jaafari, known
to be a democrat, a patriot and a wise man, now
has to decide whether to admit defeat and respect
the collective decision of Iraqi politicians by
stepping down and making room for someone whom
they believe to be more able and
qualified.
The Americans complain that
Jaafari's tenure in power has been a security
nightmare for the Iraqis and the 133,000 troops
stationed in the country. He has been unable to
disarm either the al-Qaeda militias of Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi or the Ba'athist renegades of Saddam
Hussein. In fact, far from being defeated, the
insurgency seem to be winning in Iraq.
Of
all the Shi'ite candidates for the job of premier,
Jaafari was the least allied to Iran, but the fact
that he was the product of an Islamic party
(Da'wa) raised eyebrows in the United States. Many
fear that he wants an Islamic democracy,
influenced by the theocracy in Iran, but not
necessarily dependent on it.
The UIA is a
Shi'ite coalition of Iran-backed politicians who
have articulated demands for carving up Iraq and
creating a Shi'ite region in the south, similar to
the Kurdish one in the north.
Jaafari
himself prefers to see Iraq united, never allowing
himself to utter such a demand (even if he
personally supports it) because it would destroy
his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist. Jaafari's
victory in the 2005 polls and the terrible
security situation in Iraq, along with the rising
death toll of US soldiers, has in turn damaged
President George W Bush's ratings at home, sending
his popularity to an all-time low.
Also
alarming to America was the fact that his victory
in securing the UIA's vote for the premiership in
February was only made possible through the ardent
backing of Muqtada al-Sadr, the young Shi'ite
rebel who has led two insurgencies against the US
Army since the fall of Saddam in 2003.
The
Jaafari-Muqtada alliance was frowned on by
Washington and its Iraqi ally, former prime
minister Iyad Allawi. The ex-premier, a secular
Shi'ite, accuses the UIA of making Iraq a
satellite to the Islamic Republic in Iran. Allawi
wants to destroy Jaafari because he had replaced
him as prime minister, and because Jaafari is
allied to Muqtada, who launched two rebellions
against Allawi's regime in 2004.
The Sunnis
complain that Jaafari turned a blind eye to grand
abuse carried out by former interior minister
Bayan Jabr, where the Shi'ite minister used the
ministry to settle old scores with Sunni
politicians. Many are arrested without warrant,
beaten and tortured in jail.
Jaafari has
condemned the abuse, but done nothing to punish
the culprits. Adding fuel to Sunni anger was the
bloodbath that ensued after the bombing of the
Golden Mosque last week, one of the holiest
shrines in Shi'ite Islam. In five days of
violence, the death toll exceeded
1,300.
Without any evidence as to the
perpetrators of the mosque attack, Shi'ites
retaliated by attacking Sunni clerics, and burned
Sunni mosques throughout Iraq. The Sunnis cried
foul play, accusing Jaafari of failing to protect
them and their places of worship.
These
attacks, the Sunnis claim, were orchestrated by
the Badr Organization of the Supreme Council for
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the
militiamen of Muqtada, who is Jaafari's newfound
ally in Shi'ite politics.
Adnan al-Dulaimi,
a senior Sunni leader in the Iraqi Accordance
Front (IAF) who survived an assassination on March
2, has also sent a letter to Jaafari, asking him
to step down because of "failures in running the
country".
Recently added to Jaafari's
enemies is Kurdish President Jalal Talabani, who
said on March 4 that he had joined Sunnis, Kurds
and secular Shi'ites in wanting to bring down the
prime minister.
Since coming to power in
2005, the two men have quarreled politically,
although they remain friends. Talabani said, "With
all our respect to Dr al-Jaafari, we asked them
[the UIA] to choose another candidate who is
unanimously agreed upon by the Iraqis." Talabani
(a ceremonial president) and the Kurds have
conditioned that they will support Jaafari only if
serious amendments are made to the distribution of
power in Iraq, reducing the power of the Shi'ite
prime minister and increasing those of the Kurdish
president.
Talabani said that the Sunnis
and Kurds "want to be real partners in the coming
government and not ministers without opinions.
They want Iraq to be ruled through a partnership
where everyone participates." He continued, "I
want to be clear. It is not against Dr al-Jaafari
as a person. He has been my friend for 25 years.
What we want is consensus."
The Kurds are
also angry because they accuse Jaafari of
preventing them from annexing Kirkuk, an oilfield,
to Iraqi Kurdistan. Another reason for Kurdish
anger is a recent visit made by Jaafari to Turkey,
without informing Talabani or Foreign Minister
Hoshyar Zebari. Mahmud Othman, a Kurdish member of
parliament, commented, "The visit to Turkey showed
that he [Jaafari] makes decisions without
consulting anybody. This has ignited a new
dissatisfaction." He described it as "infuriating
and a blunder".
It has been reported in
Iraq that Jaafari promised the Turks he firmly
opposed the strengthening of the Kurds by giving
them Kirkuk. He also promised to strengthen the
Iraqi Turkmen at the expense of the Kurds in
Kirkuk.
The Turks fear that greater
autonomy for Iraqi Kurds will encourage Turkish
Kurds to make similar demands. It is also believed
that the Turks promised Jaafari to speak in his
favor with the Americans and change the image
cemented in Washington that portrays him as a
Shi'ite nationalist rather than an Iraqi
nationalist who wants to obstruct Iranian meddling
in Iraqi affairs.
As the chances of
Jaafari's collapse are heightened, ambitious
candidates are once again setting their hopes on
the premiership. The most likely candidate is Adel
Abdul-Mehdi, the current vice president who was
defeated by one vote in the internal UIA elections
in February.
Although he is well connected
to Iran, much more than Jaafari, he is a
strong-minded politician reported to be
politically able and financially honest. It is
doubtful, however, if other parties will accept
him as prime minister, precisely because of his
Iranian connection.
He is very loyal to the
Iranians and belongs to SCIRI, the group created
and funded by the mullahs of Tehran since the
1980s. His immediate asset is that he is an
opponent of Muqtada, which scores him immediate
points with the Americans. Muqtada, after all, is
challenging SCIRI and its leaders, Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim and Adel Abdul-Mehdi, for leadership of
the Shi'ite community.
Muqtada is unhappy
with the degree of Iranian meddling in Iraqi
affairs, promoted by SCIRI. He is also opposed to
their desire to create an autonomous Shi'ite
region. The Americans find themselves in a
dilemma. Although they do not want an Iran-backed
politician like Abdul-Mehdi running Iraq, they
also do not want one manipulated or backed by
Muqtada, as Jaafari would be.
They would
have preferred someone secular like Allawi, but he
is not in the UIA and although he would be backed
by the Sunnis and Kurds, the religious Shi'ite
politicians would veto his candidacy.
The
Iraqis have no choice but to choose their new
prime minister from within the UIA, or with its
blessing, as it is the only party, due to its
numeric superiority in the National Assembly, with
the power and authority to do so. Nevertheless, it
still needs its candidate approved by other
parties, as the UIA does not have the two-third
majority that would allow it to pick its own
candidate without worrying what other parties
wanted.
With Jaafari almost down and
Abdul-Mehdi crossed off due to his Iranian
connection, two other names would automatically
resurface. One is the scientist Husayn
Shahristani, the other is Nadim al-Jabiri, of the
Muqtada-backed al-Fadila al-Islamiyya
Party.
Both would be compromised candidates
and both were suggested names for the job before
it was given to Jaafari. But both are weak, and do
not have a powerbase in the Shi'ite community.
Likewise, both would be vetoed by the Kurds,
Sunnis, secular Shi'ites and Americans, for their
Iranian connection.
The solution,
therefore, to this stalemate would be to bring
someone in from outside the UIA, but backed by the
UIA. This would downplay US fears and appease all
disgruntled groups in the political arena,
including Iran and the Americans.
It would
mean a political independent having the will to
throw in his lot with the UIA and walk a tightrope
between the rival parties in Iraq.
The best
person would be none other than Allawi, who is
acceptable to the Sunnis, Kurds, Americans and
Arab community surrounding Iraq. He is
experienced, having worked in politics since the
1970s. He is well connected to the Arabs and the
West. He is secular. He is opposed to the carving
up of Iraq. He has the will to crush the
insurgency of Zarqawi and the former
Ba'athists.
All he needs is the backing of
his Shi'ite community, and to secure some kind of
alliance with the UIA and Muqtada. The game is
just beginning.
Sami Moubayed is
a Syrian political analyst.
(Copyright
2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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