DAMASCUS - Many in the Arab world are
blaming the Lebanese for being so disunited and
for not rallying en masse behind Hezbollah and its
secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. These
divisions are strange for those who do not know
Lebanon: there are in essence three Lebanons, each
with its own history, objectives, alliances and
leaders.
One friend from "Sunni Lebanon"
cursed Hezbollah tremendously, saying that the
Shi'ite militia had ruined her life, while another
from "Shi'ite Lebanon" (which makes up about 40%
of the population) said Hezbollah was the greatest
thing about the Arab world since emancipation from
the Ottomans in 1918. A third
friend, from "Christian
Lebanon", said Hezbollah was not the "Party of
God" as its name means in Arabic, but rather "The
Party of the Devil".
Still, there are many
crossovers in Lebanon, according to a recent poll
by the Beirut Center for Research and Information
to test the country's pulse on the war in Lebanon.
This was done before Israeli warplanes on Sunday
bombed the ill-fated village of Qana, killing more
than 51 people (including 22 children). This
single event strongly increased anti-Israeli
sentiment and a genuine desire for either revenge
or an immediate ceasefire.
The survey was
administered among the country's Shi'ites, Sunnis,
Druze and Maronite Christians. It surprisingly
showed that 70.9% of all Lebanese supported
Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers on
July 12 that sparked the Israeli retaliation.
Because of the loud criticism of Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah by Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt, only 40% of the Druze community voted in
favor of such operations. Christian support,
because of the backing General Michel Aoun has
given Nasrallah, was at 55%.
In all, the
survey showed that 87% of the Lebanese people
supported Hezbollah's retaliation against Israel,
attributed mainly to Hezbollah's celebrated
military performance to date. Meanwhile, 89.5%
said they did not see the US as an honest broker
in the Middle East conflict. Another 64.3% were
not satisfied by the performance of Prime Minister
Fouad al-Siniora. Within the Sunni community,
64.8% said they did not approve of Siniora as
premier.
Certainly, then, the poll shows
that many Sunni Muslims (and Maronite Christians
as well) support Nasrallah. All talk about him
having zero support in non-Shi'ite districts is
nonsense.
Nasrallah has outgrown his
Shi'ite identity and transformed himself into a
pan-Lebanese, pan-Arab and pan-Islamic leader. The
fact that he is a cleric, a Muslim and a Shi'ite
is actually of little importance at this stage of
his war with Israel.
Shi'ite
Lebanon One Lebanon, mostly in the south,
is that of Hezbollah, a Lebanon of Shi'ites and
the epicenter of anti-Israeli rhetoric and action.
This Lebanon is co-shared by the Amal movement of
Nabih Berri.
Not all inhabitants of this
Lebanon are members of Hezbollah, but all of them
respect and love Nasrallah. In the 1960s, this
Lebanon used to receive no more than 0.7% of the
state budget for public works and hospitalization,
while the other two Lebanons were being described
as the "Switzerland of the East".
This is
the no-alcohol Lebanon of veiled women, bearded
men, poverty-stricken districts and ubiquitous
posters of ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the late
leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.
This is the Lebanon we see on Hezbollah's
Al-Manar TV. This Lebanon is anti-American and
anti-Israeli to the bone. Many here, Nasrallah
included, speak fluent English, but prefer to
converse, think and write in Arabic. French
culture in this Lebanon is minimal.
A
friend of this correspondent lived in the Jnah
district of Beirut. When he wanted to move out and
sell his furniture, a member of Hezbollah visited
him, saying he would buy all of the furniture and
appliances and donate them, in the name of
Hezbollah, to needy families in the Shi'ite
community. And he did.
Another story of
Nasrallah's Lebanon is that of a poor woman from
the Shi'ite community. She was finding a hard time
making ends meet until a member of Hezbollah
visited her home in al-Dahiyyieh, a Shi'ite suburb
of Beirut. He presented her with a brand-new
sewing machine, telling her to work on it and
produce sweaters and scarves, promising that all
of her output would be bought by Hezbollah.
Many hundreds of families in Shi'ite
Lebanon live off monthly stipends delivered to
their homes at the start of every month, in a
sealed envelope, from the secretary general of
Hezbollah. The families of the wounded, the
arrested in Israeli jails and those who died in
combat receive free education and hospitalization,
at the expense of Hezbollah.
This is the
Lebanon that is being targeted by Israel. For the
reasons mentioned above, among others, it will be
difficult - if not impossible - to turn the tables
against Hezbollah and Nasrallah in their Lebanon.
Simply put, Nasrallah is king in his
Lebanon. Disarming him by force would be
impossible. The Shi'ites, who had suffered from
the status of an underclass in the 1950s and
1960s, reversed their fortunes through Iran,
wealth from the Shi'ite community in the diaspora,
and Nasrallah.
They will not disarm at
will because, in addition to being a shield
against Israel, they view the arms of Hezbollah as
a symbol of their strength and very existence.
They are strong because Hezbollah is armed. True,
other parts of Lebanon have been destroyed in the
latest war, but the areas to suffer the most are
the Shi'ite districts, in al-Dahiyyieh and south
Lebanon. They are paying the high price for
supporting Hezbollah, and nobody among the
Shi'ites seems to be complaining.
Sunni
Lebanon Another Lebanon is that of the
Sunni Muslims, headed for 13 years by the towering
influence of former prime minister Rafik Hariri,
who was assassinated in February 2005. It is now
under the command of his son, Saad, and Prime
Minister Siniora, two US-educated politicians who
value liberal economies, open society, and fine,
secular education.
This is the Lebanon
where both pan-Arab and Anglo-Saxon influence are
very strong. Its residents speak and understand
perfect English, and use it comfortably with
Arabic. It is the Lebanon of fine food, good wine,
beautiful women, shopping, beaches and pleasure.
This is a Lebanon historically allied to
Syria. Its leaders in the 1930s and 1940s saw
themselves as closer to Damascus and their
co-religionists in Syria than they were to the
Christians of Mount Lebanon. They originally
wanted to reunite with Syria, the motherland, but
by the late 1930s had abandoned this idea in favor
of being part of Greater Lebanon, on the condition
that they be treated as equal to the Christians.
This Lebanon broke with Syria after
Hariri's assassination. Its leaders, onetime
allies of Damascus, turned against Syria when it
became unpopular to be pro-Syrian, accusing the
Syrians of murdering Hariri.
Unlike
Nasrallah's united Lebanon, however, this Lebanon
is sharply divided. One side is headed by Saad
Hariri. It is anti-Syrian, pro-Saudi Arabian and
pro-West. The other is headed by former
traditional Sunni notables (especially Beiruti)
who were sidelined by the rise of Rafik Hariri in
1992 and continue to lurk in the shadows under
Saad. They are pro-Syrian.
Leaders of this
Lebanon are former prime ministers Salim al-Hoss
and Omar Karameh, along with politicians such as
Tammam Salam. They believe that Syrian influence
has been traded for that of the United States.
The Americans promised the post-Syria
leaders of Lebanon democracy, prosperity and
stability. Instead, they have given them war and
bombs, tolerating and then fanning the current war
in order to break Hezbollah. Naturally, this group
is still allied to Syria and praises Nasrallah as
a pan-Islamic and pan-Arab leader.
Hariri's Lebanon - the one we see on
Future TV (Hariri's station) - dreads the spread
of Iranian influence in the Arab world. An
anti-Hariri team does exist, but it has terrible
public relations managers and is almost unheard or
unseen in the international and local media.
Christian Lebanon This the
third Lebanon. It is the Lebanon that was once
dominant, from the post-Ottoman era until the end
of the civil war in 1990. This is the Lebanon that
has preserved the sophistication and democracy of
Lebanon. It opposed Muslim hegemony in the 1950s
and 1960s, refusing to make Lebanon a
revolutionary nation inspired by the
rebelliousness, socialism and anti-Westernism of
Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser.
This Lebanon is influenced tremendously by
France. Some of its residents are more comfortable
with French than Arabic. Some refuse to learn
English to preserve their Franco-Lebanese culture.
It is a norm in this Lebanon to wake up every
morning and drink coffee while reading
French-language newspapers.
This Lebanon
is currently headed by the ex-warlord Samir
Gagegea, who was recently released from jail, and
the former army commander, Michel Aoun. When Aoun
allied himself to Nasrallah - sending shock waves
throughout Christian Lebanon - many said this was
political suicide and would ruin him within the
Maronite community. He was labeled a turncoat. It
would end his dreams at becoming president of
Lebanon, they said.
Aoun, however,
understood that Lebanon had changed, knowing
perfectly well that Christian support alone was no
longer enough to secure a seat for him at the
Baabda presidential palace.
To understand
the wonders Aoun has done for Hezbollah, one must
understand how faithful his supporters have been
in backing him. When he wanted them to fight the
Syrians, they were anti-Syrian to the bone. When
he allied to Hezbollah, they became convincing and
eloquent defenders of Hezbollah. Aoun's people
support everything he tells them. It's that
simple. And now he is telling them to stand firm
behind Hezbollah and Nasrallah.
Israel is
trying to turn the tables in Lebanon against the
Shi'ites. It wants the Christians to suffer from
the Israeli war, and blame Nasrallah for having
dragged Lebanon into this confrontation. That is
why it has landed bombs in Christian Lebanon. But
the Christians are not turning yet against
Nasrallah. On the contrary, they are helping with
the relief processes, through charity groups,
non-governmental organizations, churches and
monasteries. This is due to Michel Aoun.
The anti-Hezbollah factions from Christian
and Sunni Lebanon say Nasrallah does not have the
right to dictate the fate of Lebanon as a country
destined to be at war with Israel. This is said by
Hariri's and Gagegea's Lebanon. They argue that
Nasrallah did not have the right to capture the
two Israeli soldiers, in total disregard for the
Lebanese government and the people who have
subsequently suffered.
They say Nasrallah
is a creation of Iran and Syria, fighting their
proxy war with Israel through Lebanon at the
expense of the Lebanese. This war, they argue, has
cost Lebanon a staggering sum of US$9 billion to
date.
Nasrallah says that (unlike other
prominent Lebanese politicians currently in the
anti-Syrian camp) he did not use his connections
in Damascus to live an extravagant lifestyle,
travel to Europe or stash money in foreign banks.
He used his connections with the Syrians to buy
arms and wage war against Israel - and he is very
proud of it. Nasrallah, after all, does not enjoy
the luxuries of life.
How he sees Lebanon
is very different from how the Sunnis or
Christians see it. He certainly has never been to
tourist attractions in the Lebanese mountains or
beach, nor has he imagined the Beirut nightlife.
He lives a monastic life surrounded by his family,
and drives around in a Mercedes-Benz 500 (1990
model).
He could not care less for a
thriving Lebanese economy, like Siniora or Hariri,
and tourism to him - which has been ruined by this
war - means nothing. The point is: Nasrallah
probably does not suffer when he sees Beirut in
blackout and in a grinding economic standstill.
To most Lebanese, the image of downtown
Beirut transformed from a city abuzz with life and
spirit into a ghost city spells misery and
disaster. To Nasrallah, it just means the normal
and expected task of combating the Israelis is
under way.
As much as Israel, these three
Lebanons will decide the fate of the country.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
(Copyright 2006
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