Iraq's Shi'ites going their own
way By Mohammed A Salih
ARBIL, Iraq - Amid failed moves for a
peace deal between the Iraqi government and
insurgents through a national-reconciliation plan,
the Shi'ite majority is pushing ahead to create a
federal region for themselves in the country's
south.
The move is hugely sensitive in
light of the increasingly hard political positions
taken by Shi'ite Iran and the conflict in Lebanon
involving Hezbollah, the militant Shi'ite group.
"The prime minister's reconciliation
project has failed, and so far no major insurgency
group has endorsed it," Kurdish member of
parliament Abdullah Aliawayi said.
Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki had implicitly
acknowledged the failure of his plan at a meeting
with representatives of the major
political parties, he said.
The 24-point plan announced by Maliki in
June offered amnesty to insurgents other than
those who had targeted civilians. It also included
a plan to disarm militias. None of these things
has happened, and insurgents still call the shots
in Baghdad and other cities.
According to
some official sources, more than 14,000 Iraqis
were killed in just the first half of the year.
Outgoing British Ambassador to Iraq
William Patey has warned of civil war in Iraq and
a breakup of the country along sectarian lines.
General John Abizaid, top US commander in the
Middle East, has also warned of civil war if
sectarian violence is not halted.
Many
Iraqi politicians go further to say that the
country is in civil war already.
"Iraq is
now in a state of undeclared civil war," said
Aliawayi, who attended a failed meeting of Iraqi
factions in Cairo. "The visions of Sunnis and
Shi'ites for the future of Iraq are too far from
each other to be easily brought together in a
joint program."
As more and more signs of
the failure of the reconciliation plan surface,
Shi'ite groups are speeding up efforts to carve a
federal region for themselves.
Speaking at
a ceremony at the holy city of Najaf last week,
Iraqi Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a Shi'ite,
said Shi'ite politicians will raise the issue of
federalism in parliament.
"We suggest
continuing the establishment of regions," he said.
"We are going to submit the project to the
parliament in the coming two months." The
government has failed to provide basic services,
he said.
Shi'ite politicians claim that
the constitution, which the Sunnis reject, allows
them to create federal regions. Sunnis see the
creation of federal structures as a prelude to
partitioning of the country.
Many see a
link between the deteriorating security situation
in Iraq and the Shi'ite push for autonomy in the
south.
"Certainly the current complicated
political and security situation, in addition to
economic factors, has been a key reason in driving
Shi'ites towards demanding the establishment of
their federal regions in the south," said Najdat
Akreyi, national-security expert at Arbil's
college of political science.
If Iraq is
to avoid the looming civil war, it "cannot
continue the way it does now", Akreyi said. A
federal structure cannot spare the country from
violence, and Iraq needs a system that provides
for larger self-rule for the main ethnic and
sectarian groups, he said. This move would be a
step short of federalism.
"Iraq's
political map has to be reviewed and redrawn by
creating a system of confederations, which
devolves huge powers to separate Shi'ite, Sunni
and Kurdish entities to govern themselves," he
said. Since Sunnis control the source of the
rivers in southern Shi'ite Iraq, Shi'ites and
Sunnis can exchange water and oil, he said.
"To prevent further bloodshed we must not
be afraid to admit that Iraq is not a holy entity
and can be subject to revisions that can bring
stability to the region," he said. "That is what
necessitates confederation."
The
disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union
are good models for Iraq to follow, Akreyi said.
