Iraq's downward spiral toward
partition By Ehsan Ahrari
There are no magnanimous winners in the
Middle East. The Iraqi Shi'ites are only proving
that point by demanding the partition of that
country, now that they constitute the dominant
ruling group.
If such a demand comes close
to reality, the world will witness a disaster of
wider magnitude than that which is occurring now.
A number of regional players would be involved,
especially if US forces were to leave before Iraq
is really partitioned.
In the midst of the
continuing sectarian violence in Iraq, the
Shi'ites have revived their discussion of
"remaking" that country through partition. That
aspiration lay dormant from the beginning of
post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. At first, the chief
proponents were the Iraqi Kurds, who envisaged the
notion of autonomy in northern Iraq as a precursor
for an independent state. Saddam was only
too
aware of those Kurdish aspirations. That was just
another reason that he singled out that group for
his brutal treatment.
The Shi'ites were
intrigued about the possibility of autonomy
beginning in 2005, when there were some public
discussions about such an option. One can fully
understand why the Shi'ites were attracted to the
idea by looking at the distribution of oil
reserves in that country. The northern and
southern parts of Iraq contain most of its oil
reserves, whereas the Sunni-dominated central
region is nearly devoid of that natural resource.
Of course, the Kurds were more open about
their desire not only for autonomy, but also for
controlling the sale of oil from the northern
Iraqi reserves. In the chaotic election-related
environment in 2005, the Shi'ites and the Kurds
both openly discussed the notion of federalism,
which was envisaged as a tool for making the two
groups owners of oil revenues in their respective
regions.
The Sunni groups were fully aware
of the real aspirations of the Kurds, even during
Saddam's rule, but they became even more convinced
of the intentions of the Shi'ites in the
post-Saddam era. That is precisely why the Sunnis
continued to manifest their utter disgust over any
suggestions for federalism.
They knew that
it would leave them at the mercy of the Shi'ites
and the Kurds. However, the principle "majority
rule" enabled the Shi'ites and the Kurds to
include in the Iraqi constitution the option of
devolution, despite the fact that Sunnis uniformly
opposed it.
The leader of the Supreme
Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),
Abdel Aziz Hakim, is proposing the creation of an
entity comprising nine southern provinces of Iraq,
which also contain 60% of that country's oil
reserves. Even though this plan is not being
overtly presented as a part of partitioning Iraq,
the Sunni groups envisage it as a covert endeavor
of the dominant Shi'ite groups eventually to
achieve just that.
At least for now, the
Shi'ite leaders are basing their demands for
federalism and partition on the fact that the
ever-escalating bloodshed stemming from the
sectarian violence has made it virtually
impossible for the Shi'ites and the Sunnis to live
together in peace. Whether that is true or not, it
is being promoted, at least by most Shi'ites, as a
justification to think publicly about an option
that they have been thinking and talking about
among their own ranks for quite a while.
The Kurds are being coy on the subject for
the time being. Even though it has remained
undeclared, the Kurdish strategy seems to go along
the following lines: They would let the Shi'ite
leaders do all the noisy and dirty work in
popularizing that objective among their followers.
Once it edged toward reality, the Kurds would jump
on the "partition bandwagon" to fulfill their own
aspiration of having an independent Kurdistan.
The Kurdish leaders know how sensitive -
indeed, paranoiac - the Turkish government has
been about any prospect of Kurdish independence
because it would trigger similar demands among the
Kurds living inside Turkey. However, if the
potential partition of Iraq were to come from
Shi'ite demands, the Kurds hope that the partition
would become more palatable to the Turks.
An important question at this point is
whether the Shi'ites are using the threat of
partition as a tactic for scaring the Sunnis into
de-escalating the level of sectarian violence, or
are they serious about it?
In all
likelihood, the Shi'ites might be making public
their real intentions. They know they have to
institutionalize their political gains and power
of the post-Saddam era while the United States
remains in Iraq. Once it gets out, the Shi'ites
may be thinking that their gains might be reversed
or unraveled.
However, a potential
partition of Iraq might create a domino effect in
the region. Whether such a scenario would
materialize or not is not important. The fact that
a number of actors in the region think it might
materialize is.
The administration of US
President George W Bush would not support the
partitioning of Iraq. However, Democratic Senator
Joseph Biden, who is also a ranking member of the
Senate Committee of Foreign Relations, has
publicly advocated that option. Consequently,
there is likelihood that, as the presidential
election of 2008 approaches, the Biden suggestion
might become part of the official platform of the
Democratic Party. Biden is also considered a
potential candidate to run for president in 2008.
From the vantage point of the domestic
politics of Iraq, it would only lead to even
further violence and mayhem. The Sunni groups -
especially those who are now participating in the
national-unity government - might decide that
their best strategy is to support the insurgency.
However, a brutal reality about Iraq is
that anything other than the continuance of
government under the national-unity government,
with Iraq as a unified country, would be
disastrous. Even though the national-unity
government is currently facing a huge amount of
hardship, there is always that hope that, as an
elected body, it will eventually succeed in making
Iraq a peaceful and stable place with its current
borders remaining intact.
Ehsan
Ahrari is the CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an
Alexandria, Virginia-based defense consultancy. He
can be reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online. His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
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