WASHINGTON - Iran responded on Tuesday to
an international proposal on Tehran's disputed
nuclear program by saying it is ready for "serious
talks".
Iranian Supreme National Security
Council Secretary Ali Larijani gave
representatives from China, Russia, Britain,
France, Germany and Switzerland (representing US
interests) a 23-page written response to an
international incentives package at a meeting in
Tehran. The proposal is aimed at persuading the
Islamic Republic to abandon
its controversial uranium-enrichment program and
other sensitive activities.
Details have
not yet emerged of the statement that Larijani,
Iran's top nuclear negotiator, gave to diplomats.
However, the Iranian request for a "new formula"
in any future talks is believed to include a
proposal that temporary suspension of uranium
enrichment could at that stage (not now) be open
for negotiations. This is likely to be rejected by
the United States.
US Ambassador to the
United Nations John Bolton was reported to have
said that his country would study the response
"carefully ... We will see whether they are now
prepared to abide by their obligations under the
nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT] and
convince the world that their intentions are
peaceful, as they claim. But if it doesn't meet
with the terms set by the Security Council, we
will proceed to economic sanctions."
Mohammad Saidi, a top official in the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, also provided
strong hints of the nature of the response. Saidi
said the international proposal had "fundamental
and serious ambiguities". He added that although
suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment was no
longer an appropriate precondition, Tehran was
willing to hold talks, Mehr News Agency reported.
Saidi also criticized aspects of the proposal that
emphasize deterrence and ignore nuclear
cooperation.
Iran has also rejected the
possibility of suspending uranium enrichment, Fars
News Agency reported. Iranian officials have been
saying the same thing for months. Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi gave a strong hint at
the Iranian stance in a press conference on
Sunday, when he said Iran was not considering
suspension of its enrichment activities.
Larijani also reiterated that Tehran saw
moves to take its case to the UN Security Council
as "illegal".
Consistent
line The offer from the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council (China, France,
Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States)
plus Germany was followed late last month by
Security Council Resolution 1696, which calls on
Iran to halt sensitive nuclear activities by the
end of August or face the possibility of economic
and political sanctions.
Iran thus finds
itself in a position that it has avoided for years
through a combination of diplomacy and deception.
This situation can be attributed to the hardline
ideology of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's
administration and the support it is receiving
from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The hardline sentiments were strengthened
when Ahmadinejad announced on April 11 that
Iranians had "enriched uranium to the enrichment
level required by nuclear power plants", state
television reported.
More recently,
Khamenei said on Monday that "arrogant powers, led
by America", feared Islamic countries' progress
and were trying to block Iran's scientific and
technological development, state television
reported. Therefore, he continued, Iran would
continue its nuclear pursuits.
What was
offered Javier Solana, the European
Union's high representative for common foreign and
security policy, gave the 5+1 proposal to Iranian
officials in Tehran on June 6. The proposal called
on Iran to cooperate fully with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), "suspend all
enrichment-related and reprocessing activities"
and "resume implementation of the Additional
Protocol" of the NPT.
In exchange, the six
countries would suspend Security Council talks on
the Iranian nuclear program. Moreover, they would
back Iran's right to have a peaceful nuclear
program that conformed with its NPT obligations.
Construction of light-water reactors in Iran,
furthermore, would be backed.
Future
cooperation would include a nuclear-cooperation
agreement between Iran and Euratom (the European
Atomic Energy Community), cooperation on the
management of spent nuclear fuel and radioactive
waste, and assistance in nuclear-related research
and development. Other issues included assurances
on the provision of nuclear fuel, including
enrichment at a joint facility in Russia.
The June proposal mentioned political and
economic incentives, too. There would be a
regional security conference. Iran would be fully
integrated into the international economy -
including membership in the World Trade
Organization - and there would be a trade and
cooperation agreement with the EU.
Restrictions would be lifted on the sale
of European and US-manufactured parts for civilian
aircraft. A long-term Iran-EU energy partnership
would be created, and restrictions on the use of
US telecommunications equipment in Iran might be
eliminated. There would be cooperation in the
high-technology and agriculture sectors, too.
Where to now? If Iran continues
its uranium-enrichment activities and does not
comply with Resolution 1696, the Security Council
could impose commercial or diplomatic sanctions -
per Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. The overseas
travel of Iranian officials could be restricted
and their assets frozen; there could be
restrictions on Iranian sports teams'
participation in international competitions; and
there could be major economic embargoes.
It is unlikely that there will be much
enthusiasm on the Security Council for any serious
sanctions. Resistance will come primarily from
Moscow and Beijing - in part due to their
geopolitical competition with the US. China,
furthermore, gets much of its energy from Iran.
European powers get oil from Iran, and the country
is a significant market for European goods.
There is concern that Iran would respond
to sanctions by restricting oil exports. Indeed,
Iran accounts for some 10% of global oil reserves
and is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries' second-largest producer. Yet Iran is
heavily reliant on its oil revenues, which account
for 40-50% of the state budget and 80-90% of total
export earnings. Petroleum Minister Kazem
Vaziri-Hamaneh has dismissed use of the so-called
oil weapon, although other officials have
mentioned it.
Iranian withdrawal from the
NPT is another possible response by Tehran.
Ahmadinejad hinted at this possibility in
February, and doing so now would conform to his
confrontational foreign-policy style. Alaedin
Borujerdi, chairman of the legislature's National
Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on
Monday that NPT compliance would no longer apply
if pressure on Iran continued, the Islamic
Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.
Military action against the Iranian
nuclear program is a remote possibility. Tehran
has responded to this risk with a new doctrine of
asymmetric warfare. Iran also reportedly has links
with Iraqi insurgents who could act against
coalition forces. Additionally, Tehran believes US
forces are already overstretched with Iraq and
Afghanistan and cannot commit to another military
confrontation.
Iran also has engaged in
saber-rattling, although this may be intended to
reassure a domestic audience rather than frighten
a foreign one. Iran displayed the new Fajr-3
missile, torpedoes and other weapons during war
games in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and
Sea of Oman in late March and early April. These
exercises allowed Iran to show its naval forces'
area-denial capabilities. Iran is currently
holding five-week-long military exercises in 16
provinces.
Where did things go
wrong? The Iranian nuclear program got
under way even before the Islamic Revolution of
1979, and it has taken a long time for it to reach
the stage of a UN Security Council resolution.
It was not until August 2002 that an
opposition group revealed the existence of a
uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a
heavy-water plant at Arak; it was not until June
2003 that the IAEA said Iran was not in compliance
with the NPT. Yet in the following years, Iran
continued to negotiate with Europe and avoid
referral to the Security Council.
No
international consensus on the gravity of the
situation emerged until last September, when the
IAEA confirmed that Iran had resumed uranium
conversion at Isfahan.
The current
situation can be attributed to the newfound
emphasis on ideology in foreign policy, according
to Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani. Rohani is currently
the supreme leader's representative on the Supreme
National Security Council, and for 16 years he was
the council's secretary. In that position, he was
Iran's lead nuclear negotiator from October 2003
until his replacement last August.
Rohani
said late last month that the country was paying a
heavy price at the moment, and he spoke out
against critics of the diplomatic process who
failed to understand the value of the concessions
Iran was receiving from Europe, the newspaper
Etemad reported on July 23.
Rohani met
with president-elect Ahmadinejad for the first
time shortly after the 2005 election. Asked later
if there were any differences between the incoming
administration and that of president Mohammad
Khatami, Rohani conceded that there might be "some
differences of opinion" regarding the suspension
of uranium enrichment, Sharq newspaper reported on
July 14, 2005. Nobody opposes talks with Europe,
he continued, "but there may be some differences
of opinion ... with some other issues".
In
the 2005 interview with Sharq, Rohani stressed
that Iran must avoid worrying other countries and
isolating itself. "We have to interact with the
world for the sake of our country's development,"
he said. "If what we envisaged for the next 20
years is to see a developed Iran ranking first in
the region from the scientific, technological, and
economic aspects, can we achieve this objective
without interaction with the industrial world?"
Rohani went on to note the significance of
Europe, Russia, Japan, China and other
industrialized states, and he emphasized the
importance to Iran of diplomacy and the danger of
isolation.
By now, it is obvious that
Rohani's advice was ignored, and he is not
impressed. Several months ago, Rohani referred to
"upstarts that have no experience and track
record", Etemad reported on June 15.
How
the Ahmadinejad team reacts next will color Iran's
relations with the world for years to come.
Bill Samii is a regional
analysis coordinator with RFE/RL Online and editor
of the RFE/RL Iran Report. He earned his PhD at
the University of Cambridge.
Copyright 2006 RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington, DC 20036.
