Iran keeps Syria on side - for
now By Iason Athanasiadis
DAMASCUS - Syria and Iran are forging an
ever-closer alliance to countenance the gathering
regional and international isolation in which they
find themselves. Their improved ties include
military and intelligence cooperation, according
to Syrian officials and analysts.
"It's
strategic relations free of charge," said Ibrahim
Hamidi, the Damascus bureau head of the pan-Arab
Al-Hayat newspaper. "The Iranians are giving full
support, full protection, full financial
and
technical assistance to Syria without expecting
anything in return."
Such has been the bloom in
ties in recent months that two or three Iranian
delegations reportedly pass through Damascus
weekly. So common have they become that
the Syrian state media have largely ceased to
report their comings and goings.
"Syria
and Iran are two friendly countries which are
brought together by Muslim aspects and common
interests, not forgetting the common confrontation
over the Greater Middle East," Syrian Minister of
Information Mohsen Bilal told Asia Times Online.
"There are many relationships that bring us
together. But before anything else, Syria and Iran
don't have any aggressive intentions."
The
increase in warmth is not a new development but
the continuation of a quarter-century alliance
held up by international relations experts as a
triumph of realism over ideology.
In its
prime, during the 1980s, the alliance saw a brisk
trade in arms and oil between the two countries.
Syria was the only Arab country to stand up for
Iran after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran.
Damascus cut off the pipeline terminating in
Lattakia that exported Iraq's oil to the West,
funneled Soviet and other weapons to Tehran,
pledged to supply weapons to Kurdish leader Jalal
Talabani, allegedly blew up the Iraqi Embassy in
Beirut, and amassed its army against Iraq's
western border.
In the days following the
assassination of Lebanon's prime minister, Rafik
Hariri, in February 2005, the two allies announced
the formation of a united front to face down
common threats. A high-level Syrian delegation
signed the agreement in Tehran, prompting warnings
of a Tehran-Damascus axis stretching from Iran and
the Persian Gulf across Iraq to Syria and the
Mediterranean.
"Syria turned towards Iran
because Europe closed towards Syria, there was no
other option but Iran," said one respected Syrian
economist. "It's more an alliance of necessity
rather than a strategic choice. Syria will not
sell itself to Iran. It'll ally with it for common
interests, but in the end her nationalistic
interests are its primary concern."
Ties
have grown closer since the election of President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad and the acceleration of the
confrontation between Tehran and the West. At the
same time, the assassination of Hariri and Syria's
suspected role in it further put Damascus under
the spotlight of reform.
The former chief
of Iran's Republican Guards, Mahmoud Rezaei,
declared in April that Iran "will not be neutral
if the US attacks Syria". Iranian diplomats
claimed that Iran could not extend anything but
diplomatic action to a beleaguered Damascus, but
with Iran's power structure as fractured as it is,
analysts believe that the Revolutionary Guards
would nonetheless mount a covert resupply of the
Syrian army, similar to the one they reportedly
have applied on Hezbollah.
"The main goal
of the agreement is to bolster Syria's arsenal
with Iranian weapons, which have been improving in
terms of technology," said Meir Javendafar, an
Iranian-born Israeli analyst. "Unlike the
Russians, Iran offers much better payment terms,
and its weapons are not as expensive. Furthermore,
in contrast to Russia's case, Iran's military
supplies to Syria would not be susceptible to
pressure from the West."
It has not always
been plain sailing between Tehran and Damascus. In
the 1980s, a reluctant Syria allowed a contingent
of 300-500 Revolutionary Guards to establish
themselves in Lebanon's Baalbek, where they set
about founding Hezbollah. But Damascus insisted
that the Revolutionary Guards come via Syria, and
this was a condition that applies until today, as
a way of exerting some control over Iranian
activity in Syria's strategic back yard.
Even today, Iranian arms to Hezbollah
continue to enter through Syria. Despite this,
Iran established itself more successfully in
southern Lebanon, where posters of Iranian
ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei are
ubiquitous, while pictures of Hafez al-Assad or
his son Bashar, the president, are non-existent.
In the aftermath of Hezbollah's war with
Israel, oil-rich Iran provided a large part of the
millions of dollars of rent and furniture money
that Hezbollah is distributing among those made
destitute by the Israeli bombardments, while
Syria's political elite watched from the
sidelines, worried that their influence was being
sidelined in Lebanon.
"Both sides have
come to the realization that they need to increase
their outward portrayal of unity in the face of
increasing threats," said Ali Ghezelbash, a Middle
East analyst with a European oil company. "It is
unlikely that Damascus would give up the chance to
have fully normalized relations with Washington
for the sake of Tehran, or that Tehran would
jeopardize ultimate peace and security to
intervene on Syria's behalf in case of an imminent
Israeli or US threat."
Last year, Jane's
Intelligence Digest reported that Iranian
intelligence was planning to use assets it had
cultivated within Syria's Mukhabarat (intelligence
service) to unseat Assad in the event that he
continued following pro-Western policies that did
not suit Tehran's regional strategies.
"Syrian officials say these relations will
not be hurtful to Syrian interests," said Hamidi,
the bureau chief. "I hope that they're right, I
hope that the Iranians will be committed to their
promises to the Syrian government, I hope Syria
will not be sacrificed in any possible deal
between Iran and the West."
The biographer
of Hafez Assad, Patrick Seale, describes how
Iran's then-foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati
came to Damascus on New Year's Eve 1981 in
preparation for close ties. In his hotel room that
night, he was shocked to observe that Syrian
television took its viewers on a tour of the
city's floor shows, celebrating with suitable
revelry the end of one year and the beginning of
another.
The next morning, Velayati opened
official proceedings with a tirade against the
flimsily clad dancers he had seen on television.
Although it was an early lesson in the
susceptibilities of their new ally, the Syrians
knew even then that their alliance had progressed
to such an extent that a little scandal would not
rupture it.
"Even if a deal is made with
the West, Syria's position will still be safe,"
opined Javendafar, the Middle East analyst. "Iran
sees Syria as an important strategic ally, as
Damascus provides Iran with a secure foothold in
the Mediterranean region."
Iason
Athanasiadis is an Iran-based
correspondent.
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weekly. So common have they become that
the Syrian state media have largely ceased to
report their comings and goings. 
