When weapons of mass destruction were not
found in Iraq, "spreading democracy to the Middle
East" became one of the chief objectives of the
Iraq war. In the worsening pace of civil war, the
explanation from Washington was there was no civil
war, just violence getting out of control.
Recently, we were told that the US was not going
to pull out of Iraq. "We don't cut and run," was
the favorite line of top Bush officials.
Now, the new operative phrase is
"flexibility", which sounds as
though all options are
being considered, including withdrawal. In
other words, defeat by any
other name is anything but defeat. This is how the
ultimate truth is being spun from Washington.
One of innumerable tragedies of the Iraq
war is that America's top decision-makers never
leveled with the American voters. What went right
from the perspectives of President George W Bush
and his top aides, including his super-secretive
Vice President Dick Cheney, is that the September
11, 2001, terrorist attacks scared the daylights
out of US citizens. The age-old notion of
America's invulnerability to such attacks went out
of the window. Consequently, the "Joe
Lunchbuckets" and "soccer moms" of America readily
accepted the fear rhetoric of the congressional
elections of 2002 and the presidential election of
2004 as "facts".
But the moment of truth
has finally arrived. The American people now know,
first, that the Iraq war has entered a phase of no
return. In other words, they have no trouble
admitting that it is not winnable. Second, they
also know that the old explanation that US troops
would "stand down" from Iraq when the Iraqi
security forces "stood up" is a hollow and
unachievable slogan. Third, the American people
also know that their men and women in uniform are
not only being targeted by insurgents (the former
"dead-enders" of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld
and General Tommy Franks, the predecessor of
Central Command's General John Abizaid), but also
by other militias.
And fourth, voters are
becoming aware that the long-evolving sectarian
war has developed a new wrinkle. Now inter-Shi'ite
violence is taking its toll in the previously
relatively quiet sections of southern Iraq.
Finally, the so-called national-unity government
in Iraq might be on its last days, since Bush
officials are already giving Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki ultimatums from behind the scenes.
In other words, the moment is edging close
when the US might oust the Maliki government and
bring back an effective prime minister. If that
were to happen, then all prospects of the
emergence of democracy in Iraq will be lost
permanently. It is an irony of the proportion of a
great Greek tragedy that, in post-Saddam Hussein
Iraq, the US might be forced to find another
strongman to stabilize the country.
Even
that highly pragmatic dealmaker, James Baker - who
served as secretary of state under president
George H W Bush - is hard-pressed to suggest
alternatives to a straightforward withdrawal of US
troops, which the president continues to reject.
Still, Bush refuses to face the facts and
find either a winning strategy - which may not
exist - or look for alternatives to US force
withdrawal. For his Manichaean frame of reference,
he cannot lose in Iraq because he is fighting the
"evildoers". He was due to have a meeting with his
top military commanders and his ambassador to
Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, in search of yet another
"new strategy". Then we were told that the
president was not looking for a new strategy, he
was merely going to discuss new tactics with his
aides. It appeared that even the mention of the
phrase "new strategy" smacked of an admission of
defeat. Finally, the White House settled on the
proposition that "staying the course" should not
be the operative phrase, since it has become too
tarnished by accusations that Bush aides are
indulging in ostrich-like behavior by insisting
that no major changes in strategy are needed. What
is needed is flexibility, which will pass for a
tactic.
But what does that mean? White
House Press Secretary Tony Snow, a former
spinmaster of Fox News, said that because the
current administration was being "flexible" about
how to achieve its goal of setting Iraq up to
govern itself and quell sectarian strife, Bush was
no longer talking about sticking to one approach.
So "stay the course" is out, and being flexible is
in.
Flexibility is defined by another
White House aide, counselor Dan Bartlett, thus:
"Strategically, we think it's very important that
we stay in Iraq and we win in Iraq." Another
popular phrase is "winning", which is defined in a
White House memo as "helping the Iraqis achieve
stability and security and doing it as quickly and
effectively as possible in order to bring our
troops home".
The White House knows that
within the next two weeks before the mid-term
elections, the most significant message that
should be sent out from Pocatello, Idaho, to
Peoria, Illinois, is that the US is not going to
stay in Iraq for long. American voters are pretty
shaken up by the fact that at least 81 military
personnel have been killed in action this month,
the highest total since November 2004. So "staying
the course" has become a new "four-letter" word of
the US political lexicon related to Iraq.
Bush brought about regime change in Iraq
through a military campaign of "shock and awe". If
the November elections were to take one or both
chambers of the Congress out of the control of the
Republican Party, Iraq would be creating its own
versions of "shock and awe" and regime change
inside the US. The next Congress, if dominated by
the Democrats, is likely to preside over the
withdrawal of US forces by hovering over the
shoulders of Bush and his vice president, and by
constantly demanding an exit strategy.
Iraqi insurgents knew all along about
America's points of vulnerability and its
Achilles' heel. And they, along with the Shi'ite
militias, seem to be intensifying their pressure
on those points. The word is out in their midst:
the United States is looking to get out of Iraq.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO of
Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, Virginia-based
defense consultancy. He can be reached ateahrari@cox.netorstratparadigms@yahoo.com.
His columns appear regularly in Asia Times
Online. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
(Copyright 2006
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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