Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
unavailability to meet with Pope Benedict XVI
during his three-day visit starting on Tuesday is
another twist in the controversy surrounding the
papal visit to that country.
Pope
Benedict's hastily planned trip to Istanbul is
ostensibly to meet with Patriarch Bartholomew, the
leader of the Eastern Orthodox Church. However, it
has been plagued with controversy
from
the start, with Turks being largely unreceptive to
a visit they see as an attempt to atone for the
pope's ill-advised comments on Islam in September.
Both sides have been playing down
Erdogan's decision not to meet with the pope.
Ankara says Erdogan will be at a North Atlantic
Treaty Organization meeting in Latvia for the
first two days of the trip, and has other
important meetings in Turkey after that. A Turkish
official told Reuters that "if there was a
possibility for a meeting, the prime minister
would have met him". The Vatican says it was aware
all along that a meeting between the prime
minister and the pope was unlikely.
However, the diplomatic niceties aside,
Erdogan's decision cannot but represent a slap in
the face for Pope Benedict. World leaders normally
bend over backwards to accommodate him; it seems
very unlikely that Erdogan's meetings are so
unavoidable as to make an audience impossible. It
feels like an excuse, and media in both Italy and
Turkey are treating it as such. La Stampa of Turin
accused Erdogan of "bad manners", while Turkey's
morning daily Sabah claimed that Erdogan was
"escaping the pope".
The question is, why?
On the surface, it would seem that Erdogan
has a lot to gain from the meeting. Aside from
furthering cultural understanding, and perhaps
easing tensions in Turkey over the pope's
comments, there could be practical benefits from
the meeting. Before he became pope, the then
cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was an outspoken
opponent of Turkey's long-held ambition of joining
the European Union. His opinions are unlikely to
have changed significantly, but a gesture of
goodwill on the part of Erdogan could go a long
way. Not that Erdogan has nothing to trade: he
could have offered to calm the growing antagonism
toward the pope in Turkey and the Muslim world,
perhaps in return for the Vatican's blessing of
Turkey's EU dreams.
But he didn't. Perhaps
it was a personal thing - the invitation was
formally extended by President Ahmed Necdet Sezer,
and relations between the two are very strained
(it didn't help when Sezer barred Erdogan's wife
from all presidential functions because she wore a
veil). But this seems unlikely. Erdogan is a very
skilled and shrewd political operator, and he has
shown this time and time again, particularly after
his election as prime minister in 2002.
Erdogan and his Justice and Development
Party have their main support base in the populous
rural areas, but Istanbul and Ankara are where the
true seat of Turkish power lies. The urban
population, and particularly Turkey's secular
elite, were very skeptical of Erdogan's Islamist
past - particularly, they were afraid he wished to
alter the secular nature of the Turkish state,
which is the bedrock of Turkish identity. By
pursuing cautious and moderate policies (and by
continuing to pursue EU membership), he has
converted much of the urban areas, and enjoys wide
popular support.
However, an old dog
doesn't change its spots, and recently Erdogan has
let his guard slip a little, pushing for fewer
restrictions on headscarves as well as diluting
the power of the military by placing civilians on
the extremely powerful National Security Council.
Erdogan still has to be very cautious. His
decisions cannot be seen to be made on the basis
of his Islamist leanings, but rather must enjoy
the support of the whole country, including the
secular urban areas.
For that reason, the
pope's faux pas in Germany was a godsend,
stirring up popular religious sentiment and
allowing religion to enter mainstream debate. For
a supposedly secular country, Turkey had one of
the strongest reactions to the pope's comments,
and it is surely in Erdogan's interests to fan
those flames. The more Turks begin to feel
persecuted for Islam, the more they might allow
Erdogan to express that Islam in the policies of
his government. Thus by snubbing Benedict, Erdogan
makes it clear that the pope is not absolved for
his comments, and thus keeps the righteous anger
going a little bit longer.
It is also
useful to link the relationship between Turkey and
Europe on the one hand, and between Islam and
Christianity, as represented by the pope, on the
other. While Erdogan's government has been
continuing the process of EU accession talks,
Erdogan himself has not always been supportive of
Turkey's bid to join. However, he could never have
had a successful government without keeping the
talks going - there is too much popular support
for it in Turkey.
This situation, however,
may in the long run provide Erdogan with a way
out. First, by alienating Pope Benedict he is
likely creating (or perpetuating) opposition to
Turkey's bid from within Europe; moreover, he can
play on the collapsing relationship between Islam
and Christianity to show that Turkey does not
really belong and is not really wanted by a
Christian, anti-Muslim and xenophobic Europe. And
this can all be presented as being completely out
of Erdogan's hands, sparing him the wrath of those
determined to see Turkey in the EU.
In the
modern world, a lot is made of weapons and power,
but this shows that the game of diplomacy is alive
and well, and that Erdogan plays it significantly
better than the pope.
Simon
Allison, an observer of international affairs,
lived in Turkey.
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