Page 2 of
2 Radical US approach for radical
leaders By Ehsan
Ahrari
wishes not only to
oust the US from Iraq, but also to establish the
permanent primacy of Islam in Iraq.
Muqtada may not be as friendly toward Iran
as Nasrallah, however, he has done little to
create any impression that he is anti-Iranian.
Unlike Nasrallah, Muqtada is perceived by a great
number of Iraqi Sunnis as their tormentor, since
his Mehdi Army
has been accused of leading
the sectarian war against them.
As Iraq
sinks deeper into civil war, Muqtada's political
clout rises. If the US is to stabilize Iraq, it
will have to convince Muqtada that its forces are
leaving the country - and soon. Bush, though, is
not interested in taking any measures that smacks
of retreat. That is the proverbial rub, because
Muqtada won't accept anything short of American
withdrawal as the price for creating even a
semblance of cooperation in stabilizing the
country.
These three Shi'ite leaders do
not follow Washington's political template. They
are playing political hardball in which they see
only one result - victory. In turn, the US
requires an unusual - indeed radical - approach
that would recognize the legitimacy of the leaders
and allow for their accommodation.
Such
accommodation would result in the US's quick
withdrawal from Iraq. It would mean comprehensive
dialogue with Iran, which in turn would help
stabilize Iraq in return for carrots, including
guarantees against regime change. That US
compromise would mean stopping calling Hezbollah a
"terrorist" organization, and then negotiating
with it directly about stabilizing Lebanon. Above
all, it would mean acceptance of a drastic
reduction in America's prestige and influence in
the Middle East.
One can imagine how
difficult all this would be for Washington, even
as Sunni autocrats are rethinking their blind
support of the United States. Yet the tide is
turning, and unless the US takes some of these
hard choices, the Middle East will be reshaped by
the likes of Ahmadinejad, Nasrallah and Muqtada.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO of
Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, Virginia-based
defense consultancy. He can be reached at
eahrari@cox.net or stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His
columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. His
website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
