Middle East

Dec 15, 2006

Page 2 of 2
The elusive winning strategy for Iraq
By Ehsan Ahrari

Iraq has precipitously weakened. That was one (unstated) reason Bush invited Hakim and Hashemi for consultations in Washington.

There is also speculation in Washington that the US government might be busy preparing plans to find a replacement for Maliki, especially in view of his refusal to break off his political ties with

Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Finally, Bush's new strategy will not make any allowance for diplomatic engagement with Iran or Syria. Iran is constantly muddying the diplomatic water by mindlessly focusing on the Holocaust issue. Besides, Washington does not appear to be in any mood to offer concessions to Iran on the nuclear issue, unless it abandons its uranium-enrichment program. Syria has yet to show any evidence that it is willing to back off from destabilizing Lebanon, or so think US officials.

The uncertain aspect of Bush's new strategy is that no one knows what his version of an exit strategy from Iraq will look like. All indications are that he has decided once and for all that Iraq will be his last stand. Either he will come out as a "victor" or he will let his successor sort out the mess in 2009.

As much as the ISG and Tony Blair have insisted on a linkage between stabilizing Iraq and seeking a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem, there is not likely to be a fresh US resolve toward that end. The chief reason is that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is politically too weak and the Palestinians are too divided to make any deals. In the meantime, there is a high likelihood that Palestine will conclusively emerge as a "failed state" (as if it has not already become one).

Finally, on the issue of the rising tide of Sunni-Shi'ite conflict that might even go beyond Iraqi borders, Bush's new strategy is not likely to involve any direct measures that will minimize it. That is an issue that should be dealt with quite independently of the measures taken to stabilize Iraq.

At present, there is no Arab collective fear of a "nuclear Iran". Iran's neighbors are more concerned about the possibilities of a US-Iran or Iran-Israel war than the emergence of an Iran equipped with nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia might be concerned about the rising power of the Shi'ites in Iraq, but it has not expressed any alarm over it. In fact, the recent rhetoric of King Abdullah on this issue has been devoid of any alarm.

King Abdullah of Jordan, in a palpable attempt to appease his US interlocutors, has made some contentious statements on the "Shi'ite crescent" in the past. However, he seems to have either calmed down on the subject on his own, or has been advised by the Saudis and Egyptians to take a back seat.

America's options in Iraq are limited. It has to lower its aspirations and drastically alter its objectives and think seriously about getting out within the next two to three years. Such a goal does not have to be announced, but it could be used as a target for planning purposes. All other preparations have to be done to meet that goal.

If the US was worried about an unstable Middle East in the past, there is no reason to believe that the potential instability and turbulence in that region are going to be lessened in the coming years.

Ehsan Ahrari can be reached at eahrari@cox.net. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.

(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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