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2 The coming Sunni-Shi'ite
showdown By Jason Motlagh
WASHINGTON - After indications that Saudi
Arabia would be forced to step into Iraq in the
event of a US withdrawal to counter Iran-backed
Shi'ite militias, Saudi officials have been
silent. But the message is clear, despite a haze
of diplomatic intrigue in Washington: Arab Sunni
governments are rallying to stymie Tehran's
influence across the Middle East in what is
shaping up to be a showdown.
US failures
in Iraq have stretched the world's most
formidable
military and soured public
opinion both abroad and at home, as the Iraq Study
Group (ISG) report confirms. Observers say Iran
now has the initiative in its campaign to
establish itself as the anchor of a "Shi'ite
crescent" extending through Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon to the Mediterranean. These concerns are
heightened by the possibility Iran will develop
nuclear weapons in the coming years.
In
anticipation of ISG recommendations for a US troop
drawdown, Nawaf Obaid, then managing director of
the Saudi National Security Assessment in Riyadh,
wrote in a November 29 Washington Post op-ed that
if the US pulls out of Iraq, "one of the first
consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to
stop Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias from
butchering Iraqi Sunnis".
"To be sure,
Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it
could spark a regional war," he noted. "So be it:
the consequences of inaction are far worse."
Obaid, the Saudi government's senior
strategic adviser at the time, cited an array of
Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan and other Arab
Muslim countries that have lobbied Riyadh to
protect the minority Sunni community in Iraq and
thwart Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard is known to
have supported Shi'ite militias with arms, funding
and advisers.
The findings of the ISG
report, released one week later, cemented the
Saudis' worst fears: US public opinion has
consolidated against the Iraq war, making a phased
withdrawal almost certain to begin by 2008. Yet at
a time when solidarity within the Saudi government
and among its Sunni Arab allies is critical, there
appears to have been a break in the ranks.
In his article, Obaid quoted Saudi
Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Prince
Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month
that "since America came into Iraq uninvited, it
should not leave Iraq uninvited". Turki
subsequently fired Obaid from his post on the
op-ed's publication, before resigning and leaving
Washington himself.
According to Stratfor,
a private intelligence agency, "deep divisions"
exist between Prince Turki and King Abdullah over
the best strategies to protect Saudi interests in
light of US involvement in Iraq. Underpinning
their differences are clan rivalries within the
Saudi political structure; Turki is said to be in
line for the post of foreign minister held by his
ailing brother, Prince Saud al-Faisal.
Former ambassador Prince Bandar is also
said to be positioning himself for the foreign
minister's post, and if King Abdullah were to
choose him over Turki, the al-Faisal clan - one of
three top clans - would be ousted from the royal
hierarchy.
Regardless of how internal
succession politics play out, there is little
doubt the resonant op-ed reflects official Saudi
policy. Last month, Prince Turki was left out of a
snap meeting between King Abdullah and US Vice
President Dick Cheney in Riyadh in which the
monarch insisted that the consequences of a US
drawdown would be far worse than those of staying
the course. The Saudis are also said to have
pushed hard for a meeting between US President
George W Bush and Iraqi Vice President Tariq
al-Hashemi, a moderate Sunni cleric with close
ties to the Saudi regime.
That Saudi
Arabia would actively support the same Sunni
insurgents who have viciously fought and killed US
forces based in Iraq is not far-fetched. Sunni
Muslims in the Arabian Peninsula have strong
historical and communal ties with Iraqi Sunnis
currently threatened by Shi'ite militias and would
not stand by idle were wholesale killing to ensue.
Moreover, there is legitimate fear that a
Shi'ite-dominated Iraq under the influence of Iran
would pose a serious threat to Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait.
"The Saudis are wholly dependent
on the United States for their national security
and rely on US troops to block Iran from advancing
beyond Iraq and into the oil-rich Saudi deserts,"
according to Stratfor. "Without a buffer zone in
Iraq, Riyadh's need for US troops in Iraq soars."
The Saudis have been a faithful ally in
the Bush administration's "war on terror" and a
vital source of oil, all of which will not be
