Page 2 of 2 THE ROVING
EYE Iran's crocodile
rocked By Pepe Escobar
work for the arrival of the Mahdi. Yazdi
is on record as saying that he could convert all
of America to Shi'ism. But some in Tehran accuse
him of claiming a direct link to the Mahdi, which
in the Shi'ite tradition would qualify him as a
false prophet.
Even facing a relative
defeat at the polls, the Ahmadinejad faction
-
known as Isaargaraan ("the
Self-Sacrificers") - maintains a huge, countrywide
popular base in the military-security
establishment, in the tens of millions, ranging
from the Pasdaran - the Revolutionary Guard - to
the Bassijis, the hardcore paramilitary, also
known as "the army of 20 million", and expanding
to the pious, apolitical, downtrodden masses,
mostly rural but also urban (in sprawling south
Tehran, for instance). But the defeat at the
Council of Experts signals their efforts for an
all-out power grab have certainly been thwarted.
It's important to remember that
Ahmadinejad, more than a politician, is
fundamentally a believer in the Mahdi. Ahmadinejad
even has his own roadmap for the return of the
Mahdi; he drew it himself. According to Shi'ite
tradition, the Mahdi will rise in Mecca - not in
Qom - where he will preach to his close followers
(Jesus Christ puts on a guest appearance), draw up
the armies of Islam and finally settle down in
Kufa, Iraq.
I'm supreme The
only crucial policy the Council of Experts has
implemented since the beginning of the Islamic
Revolution in 1979 has been to appoint Khamenei as
Khomeini's successor and new supreme leader, in
1989. It was in fact a white coup - because
according to the constitution at the time the
supreme leader had to be a marja (source of
imitation and top religious leader). Khamenei was
not up to standards. Khomeini died while the
constitution was being revised; so Khamenei was in
fact appointed by a law ratified only after he was
already installed as supreme leader.
Yazdi
has been trying a different strategy - to take
over the Council of Experts from the inside and
then overwhelm Khamenei. It's fair to argue that
Khamenei has played a very deft hand. He firmly
supported Yazdi before the 2005 presidential
election, but lately has rallied his followers -
and the full machinery of the system - to keep
Yazdi and his protege, Ahmadinejad, under control.
"Hashemi" may have been a winner - but
most of all it's the supreme leader who seems to
be as much in control as he ever was. Khamenei has
been politicizing the religious system non-stop,
to the point of the Islamic Republic nowadays
being neither a democracy nor a theocracy: rather,
it's a clerical autocracy.
Neo-conservatives and the Washington
establishment should not jump to hasty
conclusions. There won't be regime change in
Tehran any time soon. This year there has been a
serious crackdown on the reformist press, the
Internet, personal weblogs, satellite dishes and
academia - where more than 50 reformist professors
have been targeted.
What is happening now
is the moderate/pragmatists reaching a more solid
position allied with the reformists - with the
extreme right held in check by a supreme leader
more supreme than ever. The crocodile may have
been rocked. But the Islamic Republic's fierce
internal power play is far from over.
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