Middle East

Jan 3, 2007

Page 3 of 3
More fuel on Iraq's spreading flames
By W Joseph Stroupe

exist, where the governments and their security forces are barely able to contain the sectarian rivalries to try to keep them from exploding.

Now the US and Britain wish to exploit those very rivalries to push back the steadily advancing Shi'ite axis. That will almost inevitably accelerate the region's already unstable sectarian hotspots into a series of full-blown explosions, from Saudi Arabia

all the way to Iraq and Iran. At every vortex across the region where the forces of Shi'ite-Sunni rivalry are swirled into close contact with each other both factions will come to the full realization of the impending endgame and will spare no effort, energy and risk to come out the winner.

The hurried execution of Saddam on an Islamic holy day held sacred by Sunnis and other sects across the region and the brutal Shi'ite behavior evident at the execution scene before and after the hanging are also likely to exacerbate greatly the region's sectarian rivalries as Shi'ites engage in triumphalism and Sunnis fear that the Baghdad regime is arising as a decidedly Shi'ite, Iran-friendly one that will soon be instrumental with partners Iran and Syria in overturning the longtime Sunni domination of its Shi'ite brethren.

The New York Times has revealed that top US officials advised the Iraqi government not to rush to execute Saddam, but the US was entirely overridden by the Shi'ite Nuri al-Maliki's government. In truth, Iraq has long since become a Shi'ite-dominated train the US can no longer control. The entire region's Shi'ite and Sunni factions are becoming ever more bold and determined to "pull out a win".

In the resulting chaos, which will most likely be anything but manageable, the oil-rich Sunni regimes will be at grave risk of collapse in the face of the storm waves of Shi'ite-Sunni sectarian rivalry crashing against them both from within and from without.

Every one of those Sunni regimes has a significant, mostly disaffected and increasingly restless Shi'ite population that poses a fundamental risk to the stability of the US-friendly oil-rich regimes. Those regimes, whose hold on power is already tenuous, will be forced to engage in more oppressive measures in an effort to subdue their domestic Shi'ite peoples. Such measures are most likely to fail as the Shi'ites are joined by others in their passion and outrage over the heavy-handed tactics that will increasingly be employed by the regimes' leadership to retain power.

As the endgame arrives prompted by destructive US/British policies and strategies, Iraq will almost inevitably break apart along sectarian lines as its factions vie for ascendancy. That will oblige the surrounding states of Iran, Turkey and Syria to intervene to secure their respective, and conflicting, interests. Additionally, the Sunni Arab states will also intervene on behalf of their Sunni brethren in Iraq.

As the US and Britain work to instigate the return to a regional balance of power by implementing their last-ditch strategies and policies, they will instead bring on the full-blown arrival of the Middle East endgame in which something other than the regionwide stalemate they envisage will be the result. One of the region's sectarian factions will win the game, thereby rising to ascendancy across the region.

Not a restoration of a balance of power, but rather a further chaotic tipping of the balance toward one faction will be the most likely result of the implementation of their strategies. The Bush and Blair administrations are not known for their ability to conceive truly brilliant strategies and wisely implement them on the ground - hence the impending exhibition of their latest foreign-policy "talents" in the Middle East should be more than sufficient cause for alarm.

W Joseph Stroupe is author of the new book Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of the West and editor of Global Events Magazine online at www.GeoStrategyMap.com.

(Copyright 2004-2007 GeoStrategyMap.com and W Joseph Stroupe.)

1 2 3 Back

New delhi Hotels

Maldives Hotels

Sri lanka Hotels

Manila Hotels

Bali Hotels

Korea Hotels

Head Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong Kong
Thailand Bureau: 11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110