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3 'The door we never opened
...' By M K Bhadrakumar
Relations between the
United States and Iran are as delicately poised as at any
time in their troubled history since the early 1950s.
Robert Fisk, the great chronicler of the Middle
East at The Independent, recently wrote that it
occurred to him that the final score in this
unique round of the Iraq war between the US and
the "forces of evil" is a "draw".
Yet one
cannot be sure. Is that the final score? There may
be "extra time" ahead, and if a conclusive win
still eludes, a "penalty
shootout" may ensue. The
trouble is, no one knows the rules of the game
anymore.
To be sure,
the Iranian leadership has closed ranks - as it always does
whenever the revolutionary heritage comes under US
siege. Even for reasons of intellectual
dilettantism, it becomes difficult to drive a
sheet of paper between the various noisy factions
and cliques and sub-cliques that usually inhabit
the labyrinthine corridors of power in Tehran.
Iran senses that the United Nations
Security Council resolution imposing limited
sanctions over its nuclear program contains many
"menacing" points, testifying to the fact that the
"enemies of the Islamic Republic have plans
against the country", to quote former president
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
There is
no inclination from any quarter of the
collective leadership to exploit the Security
Council resolution to score domestic political points,
let alone to embarrass President Mahmud
Ahmedinejad's government. There is a time for
everything. The hurly-burly of the recent
elections to the Expediency Council is done. No
one seems to care which faction won, which one
lost. Once again, the outside world's apocalyptic
predictions have been belied.
Former president Mohammad Khatami said: "I think Mr
[Ali] Larijani [Iran's chief negotiator on the
nuclear issue] and his assistants did their best
to proceed with the discussions logically."
Neither Rafsanjani nor Khatami showed any hesitation in
emphasizing that it was Iran's legitimate and
national right to pursue a nuclear program. Both
leaders pointed out that the Security Council
resolution was politically motivated and was at
the behest of the US.
And both Rafsanjani
and Khatami warned Western countries against
making any precipitate moves against Iran. Khatami
said the West should adopt the path of
"negotiation and consensus" rather than resort to
"swift and hasty decisions". Rafsanjani was
uncharacteristically blunt. He warned "arrogant
powers" (the US and Britain) against triggering a
new crisis in the Middle East.
"They are
creating problems for themselves and the region
that will not be confined to Iran. This is a fire
that could burn many others ... They are looking
for a pretext ... They should not enter stages
which could be dangerous for everyone. They had
better think and act wisely," Rafsanjani warned
the US.
The powerful Speaker
of the Iranian Majlis
(parliament), Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, expressed similar views. Senior
religious leaders have concurred. The influential
head of the Majlis National Security and Foreign
Policy Commission, Alaeddin Broujerdi, made it
clear right at the outset that Ahmedinejad's
government would have a free hand to handle the
delicate negotiations ahead and to safeguard
Iran's national interests.
Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei's message to hajj
pilgrims this year was also extraordinary for its
political content. Among other things, Khamenei made a
point of implicitly endorsing Ahmedinejad's
questioning of the Holocaust and Israel's
existence. Khamenei pointedly asked how such
questioning could become a "punishable offense"
when the pope and high-ranking Western officials
could indulge in "open defamation of Islam".
However, behind the rhetoric, Iran has
signaled flexibility and is showing restraint.
There has been no knee-jerk reaction to the
Security Council resolution that orders all
countries to stop supplying Iran with materials
and technology that could contribute to its
nuclear and missile programs. It also freezes the
assets of related Iranian companies and
individuals.
Iran has neither
quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
nor terminated its cooperation with the
International Atomic Energy Agency. At various levels,
the Iranian leadership has signaled that the door is
open for negotiations. (Larijani left for
Beijing on Thursday even as Javier Solana,
the European Union's point person on the Iran
nuclear issue, headed for Washington.) The Iranian
hope remains that the European powers do not want
an escalation of tensions, and that the US is in too
weak a position in Iraq to crack the whip at Iran.
Tehran sees some of the
most recent US decisions - dispatch of more
warships to the Persian Gulf and the announcement of a
test of the Selective Service System
that randomly chooses draftees by birth date -
as indicative of Washington hovering on the brink of
war with Iran. Tehran's consistent response
dating from its large-scale military exercises in
early November has been that Iran will not be
taken by surprise but, at the same time, Iran will
be careful not to give cause for provocation.
Iran's trump card in the coming weeks will
be its ability to mediate between the Iraqi
Shi'ite leaders Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada
al-Sadr and, more important, in intervening over
the Sadr
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