Page 2 of 2 A blueprint for chaos in
Iraq By W Joseph Stroupe
Shi'ite
neighbors will become fully engulfed in that
struggle.
Hence,
the newly assertive and
pointedly more aggressive US should be careful
what its wishes for when it talks of Iraqi
"unity".
Repercussions beyond Iraq
Outside Iraq's borders, as a unified
insurrection takes hold within Iraq, both moderate
and radical Shi'ite and Sunni governments,
entities and factions across the Middle East
region will step
forward.
They
will have several reasons: insensitivity to, and
in many cases outright opposition to, US policies
and interests in Iraq and the region, and in
strident support of their respective factions.
Importantly, the oil-rich Sunni Arab
regimes won't lend support to bolster Iraq's
Shi'ite-dominated government as they believe that
both Iran and Iraq's Shi'ites have already
advanced too far.
The provision of aid,
support and reinforcements by the wider region's
Shi'ite and Sunni entities will dramatically
polarize the entire region along sectarian lines.
Sunni Arab regimes will not be prepared to stand
idly by as their brethren inside Iraq are weakened
further. The Saudis are already on record in this
respect.
The region beyond Iraq will be
leveraged by the worsening crisis inside Iraq to
become much more stridently sectarian and anti-US
(this trend is already evident).
The Middle
East is already like a sectarian tinderbox waiting
for a spark to ignite its multiple civil wars-in-waiting.
The United States' additional 21,500 new
troops will be like a desperate roving band of
flamethrowers let loose on the entire region, from
Saudi Arabia to Iran.
And then there's
Iran ... Kuwaiti media reports in the Arab
Times on January 14, written by the Times'
editor-in-chief Ahmed al-Jarallah and based on a
"reliable source", relay that the US/British naval
buildup underway in and around the Persian Gulf is
designed, not merely to "send Iran a signal", but
to put in place all assets necessary for a massive
air strike on Iran, likely by April.
And
according to reports from the Chinese news agency
Xinhua, the US and Britain "believe that attacking
Iran will create a new power balance in the
region, calming down the situation in Iraq and
paving the way for their democratic project".
Obviously, the US and Britain wish to roll
back Iran's regional advances and restore the
rough balance of power that existed between Iran
and the region's Sunni regimes prior to the 2003
invasion of Iraq.
The West has had no
success in using United Nations sanctions and
diplomatic/political means to contain or constrain
Iran. Therefore, the military options are rapidly
coming to the fore. The US hopes to insulate the
oil-rich Sunni regimes from Iranian missile
retaliation by putting in place Patriot
anti-missile batteries. And US and British ships
will be used to keep Iran from stopping the flow
of oil through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
One has to ask, though: are their
preparations, plans and strategies any better than
the ones they put in place in 2003 before they
invaded Iraq? Is it possible that an attack on
Iran could become the great equalizer, restoring
the balance of power in the region? Or will the US
and Britain achieve an early but short-lived
victory over Iran, only to massively lose the
longer war, just as happened in Iraq?
Iran's ability, and that of its regional
proxies, to retaliate and plunge the region into
chaos that will threaten the very existence of the
oil-rich Sunni regimes in the Gulf, is not limited
to missile strikes.
The US can do little
to prevent Iran and its proxies from inflaming the
region, all the way from Iraq to Saudi Arabia,
including Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
Added to the mix is the fact that Shi'ites
and Shi'ite-sympathetic entities exist in
significant numbers throughout the region,
including within the domain of each of the
oil-rich Sunni regimes. The US and Britain
seriously risk the instigation of significant
Islamic outrage and unity in opposition to the US
and to the US-friendly Sunni regimes. Thus the
toppling of, or else the forced radicalization of,
the oil-rich Sunni regimes in the direct aftermath
of a strike on Iran is probable.
Iran's
quick recovery from any attacks, with the help of
Russia, China and other key energy-exporting and
consuming regimes around the globe, is assured.
So a strike on Iraq would not create a new
balance of power in the region, it would further
tip the balance in Iran's favor. Pitted against
one another would be Iran's many deeply entrenched
and potent power bases and the ever-more
precariously perched oil-rich Sunni regimes that
are seen as puppets of the US.
Western
interests harmed By unintentionally shoving the
entire oil-and-gas-rich Middle East on to a
fast track to chaos, the US will empower Russia as
the immovable global energy kingpin. Already,
Europe and Asia are being forced to reconsider
placing too much reliance on the region for energy
imports, opening the way for Russia.
Africa and Latin America come a distant
second for the simple reasons of their strategic
instability and long distances to their resources,
respectively.
Also, Iran is on good terms
with Russia and China, and the three powers could
form a global energy axis that is distinctly
opposed to US power.
W Joseph
Stroupe is author of the new book entitled
Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of the West
and editor of Global Events Magazine online at
www.GeoStrategyMap.com.
(Copyright
2004-2007 GeoStrategyMap.com & W Joseph
Stroupe.)
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