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2 SPEAKING
FREELY Iran being hit in the
pocket By Amandeep Sandhu
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
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The Kuwait-based
Arab Times has reported on a recent meeting among
US administration officials to decide on a plan of
action against Iran. [1] It quotes "reliable
sources" dating the attack to April, a month
before British Prime Minister Tony Blair leaves
office. Whether or not the
suggested date is right, or even if the attack
does not come, there is something afoot.
Oil prices have fallen 17% over the past
few months, now heading toward US$50 a barrel.
Surprisingly, the Saudis are not interested in
stemming the price drop. Ibrahim al-Naimi, the
Saudi oil minister, during a recent trip to India
said oil prices were headed in the "right
direction". A close US ally, Nigeria, has
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
chairmanship, and even though Venezuela and Iran
have requested an early OPEC meeting, the Arab
states of the Persian Gulf have all refused to
schedule one to discuss oil prices.
This
is in line with the Saudi plan laid out by Nawaf
Obaid - a former special adviser to the Saudi
ambassador in Washington - in the Washington Post
a few months back in which Obaid outlined Saudi
Arabia's course of action in the face of the
growing conflict in Iraq and the probable US
withdrawal from that country. The Saudis, Obaid
stated, would act to lower global oil prices to
weaken Iran and intervene in Iraq by supporting
Sunni tribes.
The idea is to weaken Iran
financially, because 85% of Iran's export income
comes from oil and 40% of gasoline used in Iran is
imported (even though it is the fourth-largest
producer of crude oil) because of a lack of local
refining capacity.
Financial-futures
analyst Gary Dorsch reports that, contrary to
analysis in the press that holds warm weather as
the cause of falling oil prices, the real reason
is that an excess of 700,000 barrels of oil is
being produced by OPEC countries. [2] Only Saudi
Arabia has the spare capacity to bring market
prices down.
Add to that the growing hue
and cry about the rising "Iran threat" that one
hears in the Gulf Arab states. The Saudi
government, elites and Muslim scholars are issuing
increasingly dire predictions about the growth of
Iranian power; they are manufacturing hysteria
about an "Iran threat". Even Yusuf Qaradawi, the
famous Egyptian preacher with a slot on
Al-Jazeera, is criticizing Iran for allegedly
spreading sectarian strife in Iraq. [3]
During the final stop in US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice's recent trip to the Middle
East, in Kuwait City, where Robert Gates, the
defense secretary, joined her, Arab foreign
ministers from Egypt, Jordan and the six members
of the Gulf Cooperation Council stood together to
produce a united front against Iran.
Within the past two weeks, stories of the
kind that were planted to shape public opinion in
support of the invasion of Iraq have begun
appearing. On January 7, the London-based
Independent led with an editorial warning: "The
cycle of leak followed by denial should fool no
one." [4] The editorial was in response to a
claimed scoop in The Sunday Times on January 7
that two Israeli Air Force squadrons were
practicing bombing runs on Iranian targets using
low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters". [5]
The same reading of the situation comes
out in US Senator Jay Rockefeller's recent
complaint that the pre-Iraq script is now being
played on Iran. [6] But since Rockefeller,
chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee,
wants to challenge the shaped intelligence of the
kind used during the invasion of Iraq, it is
unlikely that the US will attack Iraq
straightforwardly.
The attack could very
well be made by Israel. But the Israelis have a
problem: Iranian targets - as opposed to the Iraqi
reactor, Osirak, which they bombed in 1981 - are
spread all over Iran. This means that the
limited-range F-15s and F-16s will need to refuel.
The Israelis have airborne tankers for refueling,
but they will need to be based somewhere near the
attack site. Furthermore, access to Iranian
airspace is also tricky because any country
allowing Israelis such access would be considered
a party to the attack.
Since the US will
want and pretend to keep a distance initially
between itself and an Israeli attack, the attack
will not come via Iraqi airspace (which is
controlled by the US-UK combine, regardless of the
so-called sovereign government in Baghdad).
The attack might come via the Gulf
countries. Does this explain the recent secret
talks between the Israelis and the Saudis? The
Iranians realize that it might be the Gulf
countries that will allow passage of attack planes
through their airspace, and therefore the Iranians
are getting assurances from the "brotherly"
countries in the area that they will not allow the
use of their airspace for an attack.
Last
week, while Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan,
the United Arab Emirates' crown prince and deputy
defense minister, was in Iran, the Iranians asked
for assurances from him that the Emirates would
not let their facilities be used by any outside
force to attack Iran. In the end, it will be the
Saudis who lend their facilities for an attack. If
Israel is to attack Iran, the US will plead
innocence and will only "react" after the attack
once the Iranians block the Strait of Hormuz or
bomb oil terminals along the Gulf.
Even if
there is no open attack, a financial war on Iran
has already begun. The idea is to cause a social
revolution within the country. The Sunday edition
of French newspaper Le Monde has written of a
secret report prepared by the Foreign Affairs and
Defense Commission of the Iranian Parliament
analyzing the social, economic and political
consequences of extended sanctions on Iran. [7]
The 100-page report argues that full
sanctions will cause increased social and
political unrest in Iran, jeopardizing internal
stability. It says that if there is a full
embargo, Iran will be able to make do for only a
year. In face of this eventuality, the Iranian
government has announced the rationing of
gasoline.
The fear, however, is not
unwarranted because, as Newsweek's Michael Hirsch
puts it, US Treasury Under Secretary Stuart Levey
is leading a "financial crusade" against Iran. [8]
The main targets of pressure are Iranian banks.
Recently, the Treasury sanctioned Bank Sepah, the
fifth-biggest Iranian bank, by declaring it
off-limits because of its "suspicious
transactions" linked to the Iranian government. In
addition to going after Iranian banks, the
strategy involves pressuring banks in Europe, the
source of 40% of Iranian imports, and Asia.
Commerzbank AG, the second-largest German
bank, has announced that it will stop handling
dollar-currency transactions
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