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Middle East's cold war heats up
By Iason Athanasiadis
Sheikh Hamad bin Jabr al-Thani was in Tehran this week to call for a diplomatic
solution. "We should realize that the stability of the region is very important
and instead of using force, a solution should be found through talks," he said.
Last week, Iran asked Saudi Arabia to help ease tensions through a letter
delivered by Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani to Saudi King
Abdullah from Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. According
to an unnamed Saudi official, Iran would like key regional US ally Saudi Arabia
to "help bring opinions together".
But US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice passed through Riyadh in
confrontational form as she concluded a tour of US allies in the region. She
shot down Saudi attempts to intercede between the two antagonists by announcing
that "there is no need for mediation" between Iran and the United States and
demanded that "Iran needs to respond to the requirements of the international
community" as a whole.
"She [Rice] is a smart, attractive and articulate woman who exudes confidence
and integrity and is sent out by her bosses to lie, frighten, twist the truth
and exaggerate," said Charles W Naas, a retired American career diplomat who
was posted in Tehran shortly before the US Embassy and dozens of diplomats were
seized by a group of revolutionary students in 1979 and held for 444 days.
With tensions mounting as the US adds to its forces in the Persian Gulf, the
Iranian military is responding with a three-day military exercise testing its
Zalzal and Fajr-5 missiles in the desert southeast of Tehran. Last week, Russia
completed delivery of 29 advanced TOR-M1 surface-to-air missile defense systems
to Iran. They can strike airplanes, helicopters and incoming cruise missiles
and have been deployed around Iran's nuclear facilities in central Iran,
according to European diplomatic sources in Tehran.
"If the [US] administration does anything military with respect to Iran in the
context of its effort to assist its rather forlorn surge [in Iraq], it would
likely take the form of pinpricks - say, a quick jab at some target just over
the border, hot pursuit for a few kilometers into Iran - but nothing like the
contingency plans for massive, wide-ranging air strikes related to the ongoing
nuclear impasse," said Wayne White, a veteran State Department intelligence
analyst.
A US task force led by the aircraft carrier John C Stennis is on its way to the
Gulf, where it will join another carrier. Analysts point out that the two
carriers would have a combined capacity to launch around-the-clock bombing
raids. The Pentagon is reportedly considering hitting 24 targets to degrade
Iran's nuclear capability and potential for striking back, in case diplomacy
fails to resolve the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.
"An air campaign against Iran of this magnitude would almost certainly include
efforts to knock out potential Iranian retaliatory capabilities in the Gulf,
such as Iran's array of coastal anti-ship missiles," said White. "Perhaps one
new point of emphasis was how difficult such a confrontation could be to end
once initiated."
With tension mounting, the Iranian military shot down a US pilotless spy plane
last week, according to Seyed Nezam Mola Hoveyzeh, an Iranian lawmaker. The
parliamentarian gave no exact date of the incident and no further details, but
added that "the United States sends such spy-drones to the region every now and
then".
A source familiar with the security situation on Iran's borders added that the
downing of pilotless US spy-planes is common, but neither side is willing to
publicize it. The Pentagon carries out overflights to prompt the Iranians to
turn on their radars and expose their positions to electronic tracking.
"Most actions require extensive lead time, usually for unglamorous activity
like logistics," said James Spencer, a Middle East expert specializing in
defense and security issues. "Contingency plans usually therefore take the form
of identifying a vague concept of operations, and consequently troop numbers,
logistic requirements, timelines etc. When the politicians suddenly have their
brilliant idea, the file can be opened and the flesh put on the prepared bones
with more thoroughness than haste."
In an e-mail titled "Pieces in place for escalation against Iran", retired US
Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner listed the arrival of US military hardware to
the region and noted that "the pieces are moving. They'll be in place by the
end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations
against Iran."
Iason Athanasiadis is an Iran-based correspondent.
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