Page 1 of 2 Lebanon: Shadow of civil war looms again
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Strikes are legitimate in a democracy. Vandalism is not. This is one
of the basics of political life that everybody in Lebanon knows. It was through
strikes that the Lebanese managed to topple the regime of former presidents
Bshara al-Khury and Camille Chamoun in the 1950s, and the government of Omar
Karameh twice, in 1992 and 2005.
The same politicians who toppled Karameh twice are the ones criticizing the
measures of Hezbollah today, prime among them being Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt, whose father spearheaded the
demonstrations against both Khury and Chamoun in the 1950s.
Members of the ruling March 14 Coalition have harshly criticized the massive
strike that was carried out in Lebanon on Tuesday, headed by Hezbollah and the
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of General Michel Aoun, and its repercussions on
Thursday at the campus of Beirut Arab University and the offices of the Syrian
Social Nationalist Party.
General Aoun, along with the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and Hezbollah
leader Hasan Nasrallah want to change the pro-Western government of Prime
Minister Fouad al-Siniora. March 14 says that the government is legitimate and
that a change of cabinet can only be accomplished when the pro-Syrian President
Emile Lahoud leaves office, or through dialogue between all parties, and a
package deal that includes the disarming of Hezbollah.
This claim is echoed in Washington, Paris and Riyadh. The opposition says it is
too late for dialogue, demanding early parliamentary elections to oust March 14
from parliament. Among other things, they accuse the pro-Western group of being
corrupt, totalitarian, armed (as shown in the latest hostilities) and, in some
cases, agents of the West because some figures turned a blind eye to the latest
Israeli war on Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah.
Had Siniora stepped down, they argue, because these strikes have been ongoing
since December 1, there would have been no need for political escalation. The
opposition claims that the government, and armed groups loyal to parliamentary
majority leader Saad al-Hariri, ordered sabotage in the streets of Lebanon, to
give the opposition a bad image. Aoun added that the Lebanese Forces (LF) of
his Christian opponent Samir Gegegea (also a member of March 14) were armed in
the streets of Beirut, stationed as snipers on rooftops, attacking members of
Hezbollah and the FPM.
"We did not attack people or property," Aoun said, adding, "unlike Lebanese
Forces militiamen who came down armed with guns and looking for blood." The
general, who looked clearly satisfied at commanding the demonstrations, accused
the LF of trying to establish "militia rule" in Lebanon. He asked: "What kind
of a government condemns the burning of tires but not the deadly attacks by
armed men?" He also called the Siniora cabinet "a criminal government".
The first day of chaos led to the killing of three and the wounding of 340 from
all parties. The demonstrations ended in 24 hours but Aoun signed off with a
warning: "You cannot imagine what we have in store." Siniora still refused to
resign, insisting that he was legitimate and the demonstrators were outlaws,
and headed off to France to attend the international donors conference, called
Paris III.
Coinciding with the halting of hostilities was a meeting between Prince Bandar,
the former Saudi ambassador to Washington, and Ali al-Larijani, the head of the
Supreme National Security Council in Iran. One week earlier, Larijani had met
with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Also
there was a telephone conversation between Saudi Foreign Minister Saud
al-Faisal and his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki, both of whom
emphasized the need to "continue the consultations to resolve the Lebanese
crisis and achieve a just settlement that would be satisfactory to both
parties".
While Aoun and Nasrallah attributed the end of hostilities to their own
initiatives, the reality may be that a halt to violence was dictated on both
parties by Tehran and Riyadh, two regional superpowers that are fighting a war
by proxy in Lebanon. Saad al-Hariri is Saudi Arabia's No 1 ally in Lebanon, and
both Nasrallah and Berri are firm allies of Iran. Nasrallah never denies it,
but always insists (including his last speech on Wednesday) that he does not
take orders from Iran.
During that speech, Nasrallah said: "Any understanding between any two states
in the world are not binding to the Lebanese, who should search for an
understanding" themselves. There is much talk coming out of Beirut saying that
Saudi Arabia and Iran are negotiating a deal that would lead to the formation
of a cabinet of national unity, headed by March 14, that appeases Hezbollah and
responds to Shi'ite grievances in Lebanon.
It would also result in an understanding on the United Nations-backed
international court trying suspects in the murder of Lebanon's slain former
prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri. Speaking from Paris, Acting Foreign Minister
Tarek Mitri said that both Iran and Saudi Arabia were trying to push for the
Arab initiative of Amr Mousa, the secretary general of the Arab League who
traveled to Lebanon last month to serve as a mediator in the political crisis.
The Mousa package was known as "19+10+1".
It called for the creation of an expanded government with 19 posts given to the
parliamentary majority that is headed by March 14. Ten posts would go to the
opposition, mainly Hezbollah and Aoun, and one post would go to an independent.
This would prevent the March 14 majority from imposing its power through a
two-thirds vote, while also denying it veto power. March 14 accepted the
proposal, since it was much better than early elections, but Hezbollah refused,
demanding all or nothing.
Iran is not interested in a clash with the Sunnis of Lebanon, who already have
started to portray the crisis as a Sunni vs Shi'ite confrontation. When
supporters of Hezbollah surrounded the Sunni capital of Lebanon, they cried
foul, claiming that the Shi'ites were blockading Sunni Beirut and must be
stopped. Much talk is being heard in the pro-Hariri media about Iranian
influence in Lebanon, and some March 14 supporters are claiming this is what
Hezbollah was founded to achieve in the 1980s: an Iran-style theocracy in
Beirut.
Nasrallah pointed to this in his latest speech, saying they were 100% wrong and
that the entire crisis had nothing to do with sectarianism. His Al-Manar TV has
been trying very hard to change the image of a Sunni vs Shi'ite confrontation,
shedding light on Sunni politicians in the opposition, such as former prime
ministers Salim al-Hoss and Omar Karameh. Al-Manar footage
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