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2 THE ROVING
EYE The 'axis of fear' is
born By Pepe Escobar
The Bush administration, in a sense, is
getting what it wants in the wider Middle East. To
battle a fictitious Shi'ite crescent (a construct
by Jordan's King Abdullah), it has emboldened even
more a reactionary Sunni crescent (Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the United Arab
Emirates), thus exacerbating to a paroxysm the
"strategy" it has already applied in Iraq:
sectarianism as the golden parameter of imperial
divide and rule. Historically, Sunnis and Shi'ites
have co-existed amid social
tensions. But never have
these tensions been so cynically exploited - by
Washington - as in post-invasion Iraq and the
wider Middle East.
The administration of
US President George W Bush was forced to
acknowledge that the monumental disaster of
occupied Iraq had to be blamed on a new scapegoat.
Thus the umpteenth twist in the "war on terror":
exit al-Qaeda, enter Iran.
The Sunni Arab
"axis of fear" is merrily playing along. King
Abdullah of Saudi Arabia even complained in a
Kuwaiti newspaper that Iran is trying to convert
Sunni Arabs to Shi'ism. Even Israel is now by all
means allied with Saudi Arabia against Iran -
Mecca/Jerusalem against Qom; Muslims and Jews
battling Muslims.
It's enlightening to
compare this development with how Iran's
ambassador to Syria, Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, sees
it - as nothing other than a replay of the British
Empire's divide-and-rule. Washington is once again
sowing the seeds of discord among Muslims: "Bush
and his allies are in favor of further unrest,
turmoil and crises so that they can justify
deployment of their troops in the region."
Shi'ites also happen to live in the midst
of the "axis of fear" - such as in Saudi Arabia
and the Persian Gulf monarchies. Beyond
sectarianism, Arab popular perception is alert
enough to identify this for what it is: a war of
the US - supported by dictatorial Arab regimes -
against Islam. And the target is not only Iran:
the Saudi/Israeli link is also anti-Hamas - an
obvious point as the House of Saud is little else
than an annex of Washington.
A recent
survey of Arab public opinion by the British
YouGov group revealed that Israel (88%) is the
"greatest threat to the security and future" of
the Middle East, followed by the US, al-Qaeda and
finally Iran (33%). This has not prevented the
bulk of Arab mainstream media from engaging in a
systematic anti-Iranian propaganda wave.
But as Iran strives to position itself in
practice as the key supporter of the Palestinian
national-liberation movement, it is bound to
solidify its pre-eminent popular role in the
Middle East. Washington, once again, will not be
amused.
Patriot games As even
the mineral kingdom is aware, the Bush
administration's war on Iran is already on.
Escalation and provocation are fast reaching fever
pitch. This includes:
The - bogus - White House claim that Iranian
"networks" are helping to target US troops in
Iraq.
An imminent Bush administration-peddled
dossier detailing alleged Iranian "subversion" in
Iraq, which is bound to include the surrealistic
notion of Iranian "agents" collaborating with the
Sunni Arab muqawama (resistance) in an
anti-American orgy.
US Special Forces destabilizing Iran on the
ground (especially in Khuzestan and
Sistan-Balochistan provinces).
United Nations sanctions.
The blacklisting of Iranian state-owned Bank
Sepah.
The deployment to Israel and Gulf states of
defensive Patriot missiles (theoretically to shoot
down any retaliatory, incoming Iranian Shihab-3
missiles).
The deployment toward the Gulf of the USS John
C Stennis nuclear strike force plus the USS
Eisenhower nuclear strike force - in practice two
huge floating airports accompanied by
guided-missile cruisers, frigates, destroyers, and
submarine escorts and loaded with a deluge of
missiles and helicopters. In the event the Nimitz
strike force - currently in San Diego - also heads
to the Middle East, the attack on Iran will be a
certainty.
And there is the non-stop
disinformation avalanche. As in 2002, pre-shock
and awe, where the focus was shifted from Osama
bin Laden to Saddam Hussein, in the 2007 remix
(with a nuclear twist) the focus is being moved
from the quagmire in Iraq to the Iranian "threat".
The London-based International Institute
of Strategic Studies has joined the fray,
insisting Iran "could" be only two years away from
building a nuclear bomb. This curiously ties with
Likud supremo Benjamin Netanyahu claiming that
Iran is "1,000 days away" from going nuclear. CNN
and Fox News are mercilessly slugging it out to
get prime Pentagon handouts - the best ringside
view to watch the next war.
Meanwhile in
Tehran, everything hinges on a crucial decision to
be made by the nationalist theocracy's leadership.
What path to choose: cooperation with the US, or
confrontation? President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and
his faction favor confrontation. Hashemi
Rafsanjani, in practice the regime's No 2, favors
cooperation (as does a crucial player, reformist
Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri). Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali al-Khamenei has taken steps to
isolate Ahmadinejad. But it may be too late:
whatever the path chosen, the Bush administration
is already on a war footing. Options abound.
As under the new White House-defined rules
the guerrillas in Iraq are now led by Iran and not
al-Qaeda, Iran can be attacked with no further
authorization. The crucial missing piece is how to
fabricate the new (Persian) Gulf of Tonkin
incident, as in 1964
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