Page 2 of
2 THE ROVING EYE A massacre and a new civil
war By Pepe Escobar
checkpoint
police screamed to their commanders in Baghdad
over the phone that they were being attacked by
"al-Qaeda". The US cavalry arrived like clockwork,
raising the appropriate hell.
So the
pilgrims may have been killed by US air fire. But
that does not explain the officially sanctioned
released photos. Eerily, there are no signs of
blood, bullet wounds or burning in these bodies.
Scream 'al-Qaeda!' and run for cover
Both the Hawatim and Khazaali tribes are
fiercely Iraqi Arab
nationalist. They are
fiercely against both the SCIRI and Da'wa - that
is, the governments of Najaf and Baghdad, which
for them are puppets of Iran. The Mahdawiya for
its part was based in Zarga. They could have
easily been set up as the fall guys in the
massacre. Nothing could be more convenient than
blaming it all on a fanatical, anti-government
Shi'ite cult. But a consensus emerging among
southern Iraqi tribes is that the massacre was a
Baghdad-concocted operation designed to torpedo an
increasingly popular, non-sectarian Sunni and
Shi'ite Iraqi nationalist alliance (anti-US and
anti-Iran).
The modus operandi was clear:
Shi'ites supported by Iran (the current Iraqi
government) screaming "al-Qaeda!" and used the
Pentagon to kill Arab nationalist Shi'ites. In
this scenario, everything in Iraq that is not
SCIRI or Da'wa is bundled into the "terrorist"
bag. This pattern is bound to be replicated
before, during and after the US surge.
The
strategy of the Maliki government perfectly fits
Bush's directive to kill Iranian "agents" in Iraq.
Further massacres of Iranian pilgrims going to
Najaf will be a logical consequence. If Maliki is
taking Bush for a ride, Bush is taking US and
global public opinion for a ride.
Politically, the complex, explosive Iraqi
Shi'ite situation is now polarized beyond
redemption. On one side there is a de facto
alliance of the "Iranians" - Maliki, the SCIRI's
Abdul Haziz al-Hakim and Sistani. On the other
side there are the powerful Arab Shi'ite tribes
scattered around central and southern Iraq. The
key question: Where does Shi'ite cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr stand in all this?
Muqtada wanted
to be the "middle way". But the Sadrists are now
back in government after a brief boycott. His main
rally call - US occupation over and out, now - has
been overshadowed by multiple attacks by his Mehdi
Army against Sunni Arabs. This could be fatal for
Muqtada. In central and southern Iraq, Iraqi
nationalism - and Muqtada is a fierce nationalist
- is much more powerful than any Sunni/Shi'ite
divide.
What is certain is that the
Maliki-Hakim alliance will continue to deploy its
US-trained Iraqi army and police in further
massacres, advised by the dreaded Scorpion
commando squad, which is funded by US dollars, and
responding to the head of Iraqi intelligence. In
this sense, the Najaf massacre is also a classic
case of the "Salvador option" in its Iraqified
version: or how the lessons of Latin America in
the 1970s and 1980s are useful for the "New Middle
East".
Furthermore, the massacre also
signals that the Pentagon is now linked to killing
Arab Shi'ite tribes. If this is true, it is a big
mistake. Sistani does not control them anymore.
This means more and more revengeful, nationalist
Arab Shi'ites will be amplifying another
anti-US/Baghdad guerrilla front.
Take the
example of the Beni Tamim, a mixed Sunni and
Shi'ite tribe. Their sheikh, 70-year-old Hamid
al-Suhail, was killed one month ago in Baghdad by
a death squad. Revenge is inevitable. Anti-US and
anti-Baghdad guerrillas in southern Iraq have been
spreading like wildfire since November.
The model is to be found in modern
history: the Shi'ite resistance that from the
1920s to the 1930s fought and kicked out the
British. Southern Shi'ite tribal chiefs are going
for a united, Sunni and Shi'ite muqawama
(resistance). The Bush administration is reaping
the kind of Iraqi chaos it craves: yet one more
civil war - of (Arab) Shi'ites against ("Persian")
Shi'ites.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
