Muqtada: Here, there and
everywhere By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Valentine's Day is becoming
increasingly political in the Arab world. Two
years ago, there was a massacre in Beirut on
February 14 in which former Lebanese premier Rafik
al-Hariri was killed, among others.
This
year, the kingmaker of Iraq, Shi'ite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, disappears - or so say officials
- on Valentine's Day. Major-General William
Caldwell, the spokesmen for the US Army in Iraq,
said on Wednesday that Muqtada "is not in the
country" and that
"all
indications are in fact that he is in Iran".
News of 66 people killed in two car-bomb
explosions in Iraq and 20 bodies found in Baghdad
did not really matter anymore. All attention was
focused on Muqtada. The last time he was seen in
public was on January 3. Most reports speculate
that he fled Iraq fearing arrest, now that the
much-touted "Baghdad Security Plan" of Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki is formally under way. A
part of the plan calls for disarming militias,
which would include Muqtada's Mehdi Army. Others
claim that it is fear of the additional 21,500 US
troops who are scheduled to arrive in Baghdad by
May.
Muqtada, reports say, fled ahead of
the closure of Iraq's borders with Iran and Syria
as a move to combat violence in Iraq.
New
security measures were announced by 1991 Gulf War
veteran Lieutenant-General Abu Gambar (a Shi'ite),
who is charged with implementing the Baghdad plan,
which includes other measures that, if
implemented, would cause serious problems for
Muqtada. Homes confiscated by militias, something
that the Mehdi Army has done in mixed
Sunni-Shi'ite districts, have to be returned to
their rightful owners. Everybody in uniform,
including policemen and officers, have to submit
to checkpoint searches, since it is believed that
Muqtada's militias have infiltrated both the
security services and the police force, and carry
out their attacks dressed as government officials.
A new decree also authorizes house-to-house
searches, emergency detentions, spying and a ban
on weapons - even licensed ones used for
protection.
Such a clampdown will benefit
the people of Baghdad, but bring Muqtada into
direct conflict with Maliki. The two up to now
have supported each other.
Muqtada's
supporters have denied that he has left the
country, and it is possible that the whole episode
is a public relations stunt on the part of both
Maliki and Muqtada.
Muqtada is not the
kind of person to walk out on a battle. And Maliki
cannot survive without him. Maliki lacks the
charisma, the legitimacy, the religious standing,
the patronage system, the youth following and the
money.
It is unclear, however, whether the
United States is involved in a "Muqtada
disappearance" conspiracy. The US is clearly not
fond of the cleric, as he has led two insurgencies
against US forces and declares that his prime
objective is to drive them out of Iraq. The US,
however, wants Maliki in power. If the Americans
were involved, it would be to give Maliki some
credibility and to show the world that contrary to
what everybody says, he is not a puppet of the
Sadrists, nor is he dependent on Muqtada for
survival.
Muqtada and Maliki have become
dangerously too close, and while this might be
useful in domestic Iraqi politics, it harms Maliki
in the international community, and in the eyes of
Iraq's Sunni neighbors.
Muqtada's
disappearance - or distancing - from the scene
would bolster the image of the premier, showing
him as a serious man who has the ability to bring
even the strongest of men, like Muqtada, to his
knees: a "triumph" for Maliki and the Bush
administration.
Another argument says that
the US was not consulted over the Muqtada-Maliki
bluff and was led to believe that the young rebel
is in hiding. Again, this would reaffirm the
United States' confidence in Maliki.
Iranian disconnect One also has
to ask why Muqtada would go to Iran. He is not an
ally of the Iranians, nor is he fond of their
meddling in Iraqi affairs. His supporters stormed
the Iranian Consulate in Basra last summer,
downing the Iranian flag and replacing it with the
Iraqi one, showing just how distant Muqtada is
from Tehran.
Last year, Muqtada voted
against Adel Abdul-Mehdi, the Iran-backed
candidate for the premiership, during Shi'ite
elections, to prevent Iran from gaining more
influence in Iraqi affairs.
Muqtada and
his influential father before him were very proud
of never having fled Iraq, even during the
harshest years of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship.
They paid the price for refusing to leave:
Muqtada's father was killed on Saddam's orders in
1999. If they did not leave under Saddam, it is
very unlikely Muqtada would leave under the
Americans.
Muqtada has ridiculed
Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim for fleeing to Iran during the
Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and accepted shelter
from the Iranian regime, coloring him forever, in
his eyes, as an Iranian stooge. Muqtada has worked
hard to maintain his image as an independent and
surely it would be political suicide for him to
backtrack now.
Sami Moubayed is
a Syrian political analyst.
(Copyright
2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
