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3 Tehran falling into a
US psy-ops trap By Mahan Abedin
games in 16 of the country's
provinces. These latest military maneuvers follow
numerous others during which the IRGC showcases
new indigenous weaponry and boasts of its
impressive missile capabilities.
Moreover,
the Revolutionary Guards have unveiled a new
pilotless drone that they claim can be used to
crash into US warships in the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, the IRGC claims that it recently
managed to place its standard
(logo) on the side of a US warship in the Gulf.
[3]
These activities were reinforced by
the latest warning from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
the Islamic Republic's spiritual leader, that in
the event of US aggression, Iran would target US
interests throughout the world. This is not an
empty threat. While the Americans are not overly
concerned about Iran's conventional military
capabilities (which are modest, IRGC boasting and
ceaseless maneuvers notwithstanding), they cannot
so easily dismiss the capabilities of the Islamic
Republic's intelligence services and special
forces, which are widely believed to be among the
best in the world.
The Quds Force
But are Ahmadinejad loyalists correct in
their assumption that US saber-rattling does not
go beyond psychological warfare?
Two
developments in particular shed some light on this
issue. The first is recent US allegations that
elements of the Quds Force (the ultra-secretive
special-operations arm of the IRGC) has been
providing specialized technology - namely
explosively formed penetrators or EFPs - to
Shi'ite militias and insurgents in Iraq.
While an exhaustive analysis of the US
claims is beyond the scope of this article, it is
important to point out that the allegations
relating specifically to the technology have been
met by widespread skepticism. Even before the
allegations were made public, an article in Jane's
Intelligence Review last month by Michael Knights,
chief of analysis for the Olive Group, a private
security-consulting firm, reported that British
military intelligence had uncovered an entirely
Iraqi network that arranged for the purchase and
delivery of imported EFPs. Apparently this network
was centered in the heart of the Basra Police, and
included members of the Police Intelligence Unit,
the Internal Affairs Directorate and the Major
Crimes Unit. [4]
Moreover, the central
contention of the original US allegations - namely
that the highest levels of the Iranian government
were complicit in the killing of American soldiers
- was so controversial that the US administration
had to backtrack immediately, claiming that it was
"not sure" if the Tehran government was involved.
This position is ludicrous given the status of the
Quds Force, a highly disciplined unit within the
IRGC, which is in turn tightly controlled by the
highest levels of the Islamic regime.
Established in the early 1980s, and known
inside the IRGC as the "2nd Quds Corps", the Quds
Force is in charge of extraterritorial special
operations. It has operated in Afghanistan, Iraq,
Lebanon, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Sudan. In the
early to mid-1990s, the Quds Force was in charge
of a large-scale operation supplying arms and
training to the Bosnian Muslims. Interestingly,
this operation had the tacit approval of US
officials who only moved against the Quds Force in
Bosnia once the Dayton Peace Agreement had been
signed in late November 1995.
In
post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, the Quds Force -
alongside other Iranian intelligence agencies - is
active in widening and deepening Iranian
influence, especially inside the new Iraqi
security structures. It is highly unlikely that
the Quds Force would directly counter US power in
Iraq, for this would not only endanger its
operations (much of which the Americans have
tolerated) but would also violate the core
principles of Iranian policy in Iraq, which is to
avoid confrontation with the United States.
Seen in this context, the recent US
operations against Iranian interests (namely the
assault on Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's compound in late
December and the raid on the Iranian Consulate in
Irbil in early January) reinforce wider US
psychological warfare against Iran and are
designed to force its leadership to rethink some
of its policies in the Middle East and compromise
on the nuclear issue.
Saudi Arabia: Old
pawn or new kingmaker? In recent months,
Saudi Arabia has shifted from its long-established
role as a low-profile, behind-the-scenes regional
player to pursue a more active foreign policy.
This has been particularly evident in Lebanon and
the Palestinian territories.
In Lebanon,
the Saudis have played a major role in easing
tensions between the government of Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora and the Saad Hariri camp on one side
and the Hezbollah-led opposition on the other. The
Saudis have only been successful because of
Iranian cooperation. Both sides thrashed out a
deal during Ali Larijani's recent visit to Riyadh.
Apparently Larijani - the secretary of Iran's
Supreme National Security Council (and the
country's chief nuclear negotiator) - had
submitted a letter to King Abdullah that was
signed by both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. The
letter stated Iran's willingness to work with
Saudi Arabia to reduce sectarian and political
tensions in the Middle East.
In the case
of Palestine, the Saudis have almost
single-handedly brokered a truce between warring
Hamas and Fatah factions and engineered the
creation of a national-unity government. While
Iran cannot be happy about this Saudi success,
apparently the
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