Defiance as sanctions begin to bite
By Kimia Sanati
TEHRAN - While Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has chosen to defy Western
plans to deepen sanctions against his country for its contentious nuclear
program, criticism is growing louder at home for exposing Iran to avoidable
risks and hardship.
Ahead of Monday's meeting in London of the five permanent members of the United
Nations Security Council plus Germany to consider punitive action against
Tehran for ignoring a UN ultimatum to halt uranium enrichment, Ahmadinejad was
quoted
by the Fars news agency as saying: "Iran's nuclear train is racing ahead, and
it does not have any brake or reverse gear, because we have uninstalled and
dropped them away."
"They [the West] claim that they support dialogue and logic, but when they are
about to lose the game they resort to military force. Yet they should know that
even their weapons are of no efficiency today," Ahmadinejad was quoted as
saying by the semi-official news agency.
Yet criticism in the local press and among observers of Ahmadinejad's
provocatively defiant stance that has led to the present situation surfaced
over the weekend - this despite the establishment's warnings that comment on
the nuclear policy could compromise the nation's security and would invite
penalty.
Ruling hardliners and conservatives starting with Ahmadinejad staunchly deny
that sanctions can cause irreparable damage to the nation, and the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has described "propaganda about existence of a
state of emergency in Iran" as false. Yet the impact of sanctions is beginning
to be felt by ordinary Iranians.
"What good is nuclear fuel for an unfinished nuclear plant [in Bushehr] going
to bring to us if our people have to go under sanctions and get poorer and
poorer every day?" the director of an importing enterprise said, asking to
remain anonymous. "Importing is already difficult, and several major
international banks have stopped dealings with Iran. We are dependent on
imports in many fields and many businesses can be greatly affected. Less
business would mean less employment and economic stagnation."
Iran is already under limited sanctions, with a December 23 UN resolution
banning the supply to Iran of materials and technology that could be used for
its nuclear or missile programs and freezing the assets of 10 top Iranian
companies and 12 entities.
"Even before existing financial sanctions are enforced, doing business with the
outside world has slowed down," an analyst in Tehran said, asking not to be
quoted by name. "Iran is seeking alternative methods to remedy this, like
earmarking a US$5 billion credit line to Turkey. This will allow Iran to make
imports from Western countries through Turkey, but the process will be more
costly for us and benefit the Turks."
Discussion of Iran's nuclear policies by political parties, individuals and the
press has long been banned by the Supreme National Security Council, the body
responsible for all nuclear policymaking and negotiations. But voices are
beginning to be heard.
"There is no doubt that nuclear energy is our inalienable right," the Rooz
portal quoted Shirin Ebadi, a Nobel peace laureate and rights activist, as
saying. "But we have other more important, more urgent inalienable rights like
the right to welfare, peace, health care and freedom. One right can't be
sacrificed to the other."
There is consensus among Iranian political parties on the nation's
"inalienable" right to possess and use nuclear technology for peaceful
purposes, but many, including the Islamic Revolution's Mujahideen Organization
(IRMO), are now questioning the current policies that have led the country to a
crisis. They are demanding a return to the course taken by Iran's former
nuclear negotiation team led by Hasan Rohani under the reformist regime of
former president Mohammad Khatami.
"There is a danger that by continuation of imprudence and adoption of an
irrational and sometimes adventurous course of action after expiry of the
two-month UN deadline, the crisis may find greater dimensions and endanger
national interests and the security of the system and the country," the IRMO, a
small but influential reformist political party, said in a statement released
just before the expiry of the UN deadline.
"Unfortunately, officials and fosterers of erroneous current policies are
preventing the discussion or explanation of the contents of the [UN] resolution
[1737] to the public. Continuation of this course under the pretext of the
enemy taking advantage [of domestic criticism] can cause serious challenge to
the national expediency and the nation's vital interests," the IRMO statement
said.
The IRMO demanded a stop to provoking the international community with threats
to make the world insecure if Iran is attacked, to exit the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, to attack neighboring countries and to sell enriched
uranium to Islamic countries.
An observer in Tehran said, requesting anonymity: "Concerns about the costs
imposed by the relentless pursuit of nuclear technology are rising among the
Iranian public who seem to be even more alarmed of prospects of a military
attack now than actual sanctions.
"With what happened in Iraq, they now know the US president is not so much
different from our own and is capable of making yet another wrong decision that
would be affecting us [Iran] this time," he said.
Reformist parties, hugely concerned about hardliners pushing the country to a
point of no return, are increasingly rallying around the influential Expediency
Council chairman, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a man called a kingmaker and a
grand lobbyist. Joined by Khatami and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karrubi,
he has been actively trying to ease tensions and bring hardliners and the West
alike to their senses.
The appropriate way to solve Iran's nuclear case is that big powers give up
their unreasonable preconditions (ie, suspension of enrichment before talks can
start) and negotiation, Rafsanjani told a Friday prayer congregation in Tehran.
"Using weapons of mass destruction is not part of our discourse. You say you
can't trust Iran not to use its nuclear achievements in its military
industries. We are prepared to offer you absolute assurance in this respect,"
he said.
The Etemad Melli, the mouthpiece of Karrubi's reformist Etemad Melli Party,
warned in an editorial on Saturday: "The nation is facing a threatening course
in the international scene.
"In spite of certain unfounded optimism about the role of China and Russia [in
postponing or reducing the intensity of a second Chapter 7 UN resolution
against Iran], one cannot really place too much hope in them," the editorial
said.
Russia and China, which have close economic, strategic and energy ties with
Tehran, moved to mitigate the December 23 sanctions, and these Security Council
members are expected once again to oppose overly harsh sanctions.
But the role Russia can play has come under criticism. Russia's refusal to
complete a nuclear plant it has been building in Bushehr since 1995 and to
deliver the fuel required for the operation of the plant has caused suspicions
about its real intentions.
Accusing Russia of playing a dual game and taking advantage of Iran's nuclear
situation to acquire concessions from Western powers, Aftab-e-Yazd, a reformist
daily associated with an elite clerical party of which Khatami is secretary
general, called on Iran's nuclear negotiators to give up hopes of Russian
support.
"Time has come to stop insisting on some tactics, especially those related to
[the] Russians' [role] and while stressing our nuclear strategy, to change
certain means [toward its achievement]. Costs can be reduced to a minimum even
if it seems too late to have ultimate achievements," an Aftab-e-Yazd editorial
said in its Saturday edition.
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