Middle East

Mar 7, 2007

Page 1 of 3
The Sadr movement 'will eventually triumph'

Dr Munthir al-Kewther was born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1965. He has studied Islamic and Western philosophy at various Western and Iraqi universities. Kewther completed his PhD in Islamic philosophy at Iraq's Kufa University in 1995.

Kewther is currently dean of the faculty of media and journalism at al-Huraa University in the Netherlands. He has an extensive background as a television presenter and broadcaster. From

2001-06 he was a newsreader and program presenter at Al-Mustaqillah TV in London. Kewther spoke with Mahan Abedin.

Mahan Abedin: Let's begin by discussing the so-called "surge" of American troops into Baghdad. What is the real American military objective behind this campaign?

Munthir al-Kewther: Maybe they are preparing the ground for a military campaign against Iran. They feel they have to sort out the mess in Iraq before they attack Iran. But I don't think they can solve the mess in Iraq.

MA: Do you think it is too much of a coincidence that the briefing on alleged Iranian meddling in Iraq - including allegations that the Iranians are indirectly involved in the killing of American soldiers - came just before the start of the new military campaign in Baghdad?

MK: The two are clearly linked. They have been preparing the ground for a war against Iran for a long time. But obviously they are accelerating the media, propaganda and psychological warfare campaign as the date for their campaign approaches.

MA: What is your assessment of how the surge started? The Americans were very keen to start it in as low-profile a way as possible.

MK: That tells you that the Americans and their allies in Iraq lack confidence. They don't really know what they are doing. They expect to fail, so they confuse things and try to blame others for their failures. But the [Nuri al-]Maliki government ends up getting most of the blame because its only role is to enforce American edicts in Iraq. The Americans use Maliki as a scapegoat.

MA: The Americans claim the surge is targeted equally at the mostly Sunni insurgents and the mostly Shi'ite militias. Do you believe them?

MK: The real objective is to weaken the Jaish al-Mehdi [Mehdi Army] because this is - by far - the largest and most popular resistance movement in Iraq. The Americans are also hoping to weaken the Sadrist movement as a whole. For the Americans there is no difference between Shi'ites and Sunnis. The Americans fight anyone that resists them, but they talk about Shi'ites and Sunnis in order to pretend the problem is among the Iraqis themselves, not between the American occupation army and the Iraqi resistance.

MA: Do you believe the Americans want a full-scale confrontation with the Mehdi Army? I say this in light of information that both sides are trying to avoid a full-scale confrontation.

MK: The Americans have started a low-profile assassination campaign against key Mehdi Army and Sadrist figures. In recent months they have assassinated some of the best and most moderate people in the Sadrist movement - the kind of people that were effective at helping the poor and oppressed.

The best example was the assassination last December of Sahib al-Ameri in front of his wife and children in his house in Najaf. Al-Ameri was the secretary general of the Shahidollah Institute, a charitable organization that helps poor and displaced people. He had no connections whatsoever to the Mehdi Army.

MA: How long is the surge likely to last in Baghdad?

MK: I doubt it will last long. It is not likely to succeed, and the Americans are the first people to know this. Baghdad is a city of 6 million people. Stability for Baghdad requires one soldier or policeman for every 50 people. Therefore, to restore stability to a city of 6 million people, the Americans need at least 120,000 troops.

The Americans cannot commit this number of troops. And even if they could, they would still probably not succeed, because the local population is utterly hostile to them. I am talking about the Iraqi people as a whole - Shi'ite and Sunni alike - they all despise the Americans and are bristling for revenge. No amount of troops can overcome this level of hatred and determination.

MA: It seems that the only certain outcome is a sharp increase in American casualties.

MK: Exactly. But the important thing for me is that a lot of innocent people are going to die as a result of this. Many more poor Iraqis will die at the hands of the American occupiers and their local puppets.

MA: There are reports that Muqtada al-Sadr has fled to Iran to escape the American crackdown. Is this true?

MK: This is a war, and these reports are part of the American propaganda and psychological-warfare campaign against the Sadr

Continued 1 2 3

Looking for a new home in Iraq (Mar 3, '07)

Dialogue among foes in Baghdad (Mar 3, '07)

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