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2 A key summit and Russia's hour of
decision By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
While regional powers convene in Baghdad
to discuss Iraqi security on Saturday, one of the
key participants, Iran, finds itself at a critical
juncture with Russia over the completion and
fueling of the Bushehr nuclear power station. A
matter of keen importance to Iran, the coincidence
of timing of these two issues underscores the
complexity of its foreign policy and the
difficulties it will encounter if the talks with
Russia fail to bear fruit.
Ali Larijani,
the head of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security
Council and the chief nuclear
negotiator, has explicitly conveyed that his
country's "friendship" with Russia is now on the
line: there will be a serious setback in
Russia-Iranian relations if Russia fails to honor
its agreement to deliver the nuclear fuel this
month.
That could put paid to Russian
President Vladimir Putin's upbeat assessment of
the prospects for improving the Russia-Iran
relations he made just last month in his meeting
with the Supreme Leader's personal envoy, former
foreign minister Ali Akbar Valayti. Putin has also
expressed interest in inviting Iran to the Quartet
discussions on Middle East settlement, while
dismissing at the same time the US allegations of
Iran's missile threat to Europe.
Tehran's
sources indicate that Putin personally sanctioned
the timely delivery of the Tor-M1 air-defense
system to Iran recently, much to the chagrin of
some of his pro-American advisers. And just the
other day the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a
statement calling for the expansion of economic
and trade relations with Iran, including several
more nuclear reactors.
But with Iran's
patience running thin by the hour and Iranian
public opinion exerting serious pressure on the
politicians on this subject, even a temporary
delay by Russia would have serious consequences,
setting back Moscow-Tehran relations by a huge
margin.
From Russia's vantage, the issue
is Iran's delayed payment, a charge denied by
Iranian officials including Mohammad Saeedi, the
deputy director of Iran's Atomic Energy
Organization. He is negotiating with Russian
officials who now contend that the situation has
reached a "crisis" point, to quote Vladimir
Pavlov, the head of Bushehr project. "Iran has
fulfilled all its financial obligations and will
continue to do so," Saeedi has stated.
At
his latest press conference, Larijani echoed
Saeedi's position and claimed, "Russians want to
be paid ahead of the agreed timeline." But really,
who doubts that Russia is playing "politics with
Bushehr", to quote Reza Khazaneh, a former
official with the Iranian atomic agency?
Meanwhile, the Iranian press and a number
of Iranian political experts, unrestrained by
diplomatic niceties, are severely criticizing
Russia. Case in point: Professor Pirouz
Mojtahedzadeh, arguably the best-known
foreign-policy expert in Iran, has stated: "The
Russians have turned Bushehr into an instrument
for the exploitation of Iran."
Hence the
ball is entirely in Moscow's court, and it is
doubtful at this critical juncture, when Moscow is
increasingly incensed by Washington's geostrategic
moves, that Russia can afford to lose the
confidence and support of Iran.
Iran's
sources indicate that Saeedi's current trip to
Moscow will likely culminate in a new subsidiary
agreement regarding the completion of Bushehr and
the fuel delivery. According to last year's
agreement, the nuclear fuel should be delivered
six months prior to the operation of the Bushehr
plant, thus the importance of timely delivery from
Iran's point of view. It would preclude any more
costly delays of the much-delayed power plant.
According to Yevgeniya Neimenovetes, the
financial director of Atomstroiexport, the Russian
company building Bushehr, United Nations sanctions
have caused "delayed deliveries from third
countries". At the same time, Pavlov has injected
a small ray of hope by stating that Russian
technicians continue to work at the power plant,
and another "phase" in the march toward operation
has been completed.
Indeed, in light of
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's
statement that the plant is 95-96% complete, the
project has gone too far to be held hostage by the
nuclear row with the US
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