Page 2 of 2 A key summit and Russia's
hour of decision By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
much longer, no matter how
intensely Washington is lobbying Russia to put it
on hold until Iran complies with the UN's demand
to halt its uranium-enrichment activities.
Regarding the latter, Russia's envoy to
the UN, Vitaly Churkin, has urged Iran to give a
"positive response" to the UN's demands, and
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Lavrov has stated
that Russia "relies on the International Atomic
Energy Agency's professional judgment". This week,
the IAEA's governing board opted to cut aid
to
23 Iranian nuclear projects, doubtless a
significant blow to Iran's nuclear program.
But Russia's refusal to deliver the
promised nuclear fuel may turn out to be the straw
that breaks the camel's back, leaving no doubt
whatsoever in Iran that the price of its present
intransigent posture in nuclear negotiations is
turning out to be simply too high.
Simultaneously, such a setback serves the
interests of Iran's hardliners, who can point out
the absolute necessity of nuclear-fuel
self-reliance in light of the unreliability of
foreign sources. The question, of course, is
whether or not Iran has the capacity to achieve
nuclear-fuel self-sufficiency, given its technical
deficiencies and lack of natural uranium.
Another question is: How will the UN
Security Council, whose permanent members are also
participating at the Baghdad meeting, along with
the Arab League, react to Iran's continued
defiance at a time when the international
community is soliciting Iran's cooperation on
Iraq? The answer depends to some extent on the
result of the impending discussions at the meeting
and on its sidelines.
Iran and the
Baghdad meeting In his press conference
before departing to Baghdad, Deputy Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi, an astute diplomat with
whom this author shared experience at a number of
round-table discussions at European think-tanks in
2005, stated that Iran participates at the meeting
"with the goal of supporting the Iraqi government,
particularly in the economic and security
dimensions".
High on Tehran's agenda is
the issue of five Iranian diplomats kidnapped by
the US in Kurdistan. Araghchi stated that they are
"in Baghdad, held by the Americans, and the Red
Cross has assured us of their physical health". As
a sign of US goodwill, one of those hostages has
been allowed to contact his family and report
about their good health, according to the latest
reports by the Iranian news agencies.
According to Araghchi, "We will know at
this meeting if the US is after resolving the Iraq
crisis or adventurism."
Meanwhile, in a
clear signal of their united front at the meeting,
Syria and Iran have once again emphasized the
"continuation of the strategic relations" between
the two countries, to quote a joint statement by
the vice presidents of Iran and Syria in Damascus.
For its part, the Iraqi government has set
its own high expectations, reflected in the
statement of Iraq's former oil minister, Ibrahim
Bahr al-Oloom, that Iraq favors Iran's involvement
for "guaranteeing the stability of Persian Gulf".
This raises the prospect of a future security
conference in Tehran whereby Iran can push more
vigorously for a common Gulf security
infrastructure, inclusive of all the littoral
states.
Doubtless, a great deal of
confidence-building among Iran, Iraq and the oil
sheikhdoms of the Gulf Cooperation Council,
including on the thorny issue of Iran's nuclear
program, is required before this long-standing
Iranian objective for Persian Gulf security can
see the light of reality.
Yet in light of
the recent meeting of Iran's president with the
king of Saudi Arabia and the positive mood for
greater cooperation set by the multilateral
meeting in Baghdad, the stage for the Tehran
conference is already set, and that is one small
dose of positive news in an otherwise dark
regional climate.
Kaveh L
Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After
Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy
(Westview Press) and co-author of "Negotiating
Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World
Affairs, Volume XII, Issue 2, Summer 2005, with
Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping Iran's
nuclear potential latent", Harvard International
Review, and is author of Iran's Nuclear
Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction.
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