Page 2 of
2 Iran stands its
ground By M K Bhadrakumar
intelligence they had at the
beginning. We hope they don't repeat their
previous mistakes."
The Iranian
pronouncements revealed their thinking. First,
Iran is making the question of US troop withdrawal
from Iraq a major issue - arguably, the core
issue. Araghchi said, "What happens in Iraq
amounts to a vicious circle: the presence of
occupiers encourages more terrorist events and
violence and the occupiers
refer to escalation of
tension for their continued presence there. A
timetable needs to be presented soon so as to end
the presence of the occupiers."
Strong
words, no doubt. Clearly, if the Bush
administration expected Tehran to tread softly on
its raw nerves, that's not the way things are
unfolding. Tehran has no intentions to assist
salvaging the US reputation in the Middle East or
mitigating US defeat in Iraq.
Tehran has
assessed that the political mood in the US has
changed dramatically against the Bush
administration's policy toward Iran and,
furthermore, that the withdrawal of US troops from
Iraq is now a matter of time and detail. In an
article featured by the Washington Post on Sunday,
Senator Edward Kennedy wrote, "The [Bush]
administration has finally heeded the call of many
of us in the Congress and agreed to talk to Iran
and Syria ... the fact that a Democratic Congress
will not rubber-stamp a decision to invade Iran is
already serving as an important - and
constitutionally mandated - check on the
president."
Kennedy stressed, "More
important, there is broad consensus on the
Democratic side of the aisle that our combat
troops [in Iraq] should be redeployed by 2008. We
will work to make that goal a reality."
Second, starting from the above, Tehran
insists that the Iraq conference is all about
augmenting the autonomy of decision-making and
enhancing the legitimacy of the government headed
by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Iran is backing
the Maliki government, and disfavors any US
attempt to replace Maliki with a new setup headed
by Iyad Allawi, formerly interim prime minister,
who is closely allied to the US security
establishment.
Third, Tehran opposes any
idea of annulment of Iraq's existing constitution,
parliament or political structures in the name of
accommodating Sunni forces, especially
ex-Ba'athists, with a view to placating
pro-American Arab states. Iraq's security,
stability and unity remain of great importance to
Iran. But Tehran opposes the US witch-hunting of
Shi'ite militias. Araghchi spoke of Iran's support
for Iraq's "oppressed nation" (read Shi'ite
empowerment).
Fourth, Tehran visualizes
that countries of the region are the primary
participants in the endeavor to stabilize Iraq.
The "five non-neighboring countries" (the United
States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and
China) are mere "observers". An Iranian Foreign
Ministry spokesman announced on Sunday that in the
near future, the heads of states of a number of
countries bordering the Persian Gulf are expected
to visit Tehran.
Finally, Iran has reason
to be satisfied with the outcome of the
conference. Principally, Iran's regional role in
stabilizing the Iraq situation has been
internationally recognized. The futility of
isolating Tehran is more apparent today than ever.
Tehran will now carefully watch US
behavior until early next month for a proposed
ministerial-level conference. It will remain
flexible and willing to negotiate. Meanwhile,
progress at the UN Security Council on the Iran
nuclear issue will certainly have a bearing. The
Iranian Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday that
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will take part in the
Security Council session in New York.
Again, Iran will closely monitor
US-Israeli muscle-flexing. It won't lower its
guard. From the low-key Israeli stance over the
holding of the Iraq conference, it is apparent
that Washington is coordinating with Jerusalem. US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is likely to
visit Israel prior to the ministerial-level
meeting on Iraq next month.
Significantly,
Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the
Jerusalem Post in an interview on Thursday before
setting out on a visit to the US, "This is the
critical year to stop Iran [nuclear program], and
the US can play a key role in escalating financial
pressure. [This] is the critical year to stop Iran
[nuclear program] diplomatically. We need
to demand that the world step up the financial
closure on Iran, since I think that the pressure
on the flow of money to Iran is important pressure
that can stop Iran's race to obtain nuclear
weapons" (emphasis added).
Interestingly,
he had no use for military threats against Iran.
Tehran's cooperation will also depend on
US willingness to abandon the disastrous course of
putting together a phalanx of pro-American Sunni
Arab states and Israel and pitting them against
Tehran. At any rate, that is a misguided US
policy. As Dobbins said in a speech last
September, "In a search for moral clarity, the
[Bush] administration has tried to divide the
Middle East into good guys and bad guys. America
tends to treat Middle East diplomacy as a win/lose
or zero-sum game in which Syrian, Iranian,
Hezbollah or Hamas gains are by definition
American losses and vice versa.
"The
result, of course, is the United States always
loses, because if you insist that the population
of the region choose between Syria, Iran,
Hezbollah and Hamas on the one hand, or the United
States and Israel on the other, they are going to
choose the other side every time."
For the
same reason, Anglo-American manipulation of the
Shi'ite-Sunni sectarian divide for discrediting
and isolating Iran in the Islamic world has
infuriated Iran's religious leadership at the
highest level.
On Sunday, Rafsanjani
lashed out at the US once again, spoiling
Khalilzad's party mood. Rafsanjani said, "Enemies
carried out practical measures. On the one hand,
they occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, established
bases in the north of Iran [Azerbaijan] and
encouraged Israel to wage war on Lebanon, while on
the other hand they are stirring up internal
conflict between the Palestinian parties. They
regarded Iran as the center of democratic movement
and put the country under pressure. They do not
abandon the pretext of the nuclear issue ...
Today, Washington intends to achieve its goals by
causing differences between Shi'ite and Sunni
Muslims."
The rhetoric must be putting
many in a quandary. It sounds like what
"hardliner" Ahmadinejad has been saying all along.
These nuances apart, it is clear that Washington
has to go the extra league to make amends for the
past five years of its flawed Iran policy. But
will the powerful Jewish lobby in the US allow
that to happen?
In Shakespeare's play,
Lysander listed a number of difficulties to be
overcome if love was to advance - differences in
birth or age ("misgrafted in respect of years"),
and difficulties caused by friends or "war, death
or sickness", which make love seem "swift as a
shadow, short as any dream". But most important,
Hermia noted, lovers must nonetheless persevere
and remain hopeful of a happy ending.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
more than 29 years, with postings including
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
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