QANDIL MOUNTAINS, Iraq-Iran-Turkey - The
fragile quiet in this no-man's land was broken by
a young fighter shooting into the air at a regular
morning ceremony to "commemorate martyrs". The
firing was more than ceremonial. A new threat of
war is looming in this mountain range in the north
of Iraq, cutting into Turkey and Iran.
All
three countries have large Kurdish populations,
and their governments are worried about a Kurdish
uprising for a separate homeland. Only in Iraq do
Kurds have an autonomous region of
their
own.
Over
the past few months, Turkey and Iran have been
threatening to sweep positions held by the
Kurdistan Workers' Party of
Turkey (PKK)
off these mountains. They accuse the PKK of
launching cross-border operations from Iraq's soil
into Turkey and Iran.
The PKK announced a
unilateral ceasefire last October 1, symbolically
on World Peace Day, but it was rejected by the
Turkish government.
"We don't want to be
forced to fight, and are still expecting a
positive response to our ceasefire message from
the relevant parties," said Rostam Joudi, a member
of the PKK's leadership council. "Otherwise, we
are quite prepared to counter any [Turkish]
military operation. We can raise the level of the
conflict ... and it may get bigger than [the] Iraq
and Arab-Israeli conflicts."
The PKK is on
the terror list of Turkey, the United States and
the European Union. The group's fight for a
Kurdish homeland in Turkey since the early 1980s
has claimed more than 35,000 lives. The
prospect of a conflict between PKK and Turkish
troops has worried Iraqi Kurds who fear that a
Turkish attack on PKK bases will lead to long-term
occupation of their Kurdistan region in northern
Iraq.
It was mainly Iraqi Kurds who
persuaded the PKK to announce the ceasefire,
hoping it would open the channel for diplomacy.
But the move backfired; Turks argued that it was a
sign of Iraqi Kurds' relations with PKK.
Turkish army chief General Yasar Buyukanit
accused Iraqi Kurdish political parties last month
of being "the biggest supporter of the PKK at the
moment". Iraq's Kurdish political parties are now
uncertain how to deal with the PKK.
Kurdistan regional President Massoud
Barzani told the Turkish NTV channel that his
forces will not simply stand by should Turkish
troops enter northern Iraq. The Kurdistan regional
government also rejects military action against
the PKK guerrillas; a Turkish attack on Kurds
would be strongly opposed by the public.
Kurdish leaders in Iraq are well aware
that the PKK presence imperils the stability of
their region and makes it a target for Turkish as
well as Iranian forces. Since last spring Turkish
and Iranian forces have occasionally shelled
villages on the borders. Several Kurds have been
killed.
The Kurdish leadership in Iraq has
frequently called on the Turkish government to
treat its own Kurdish population better and for a
general amnesty for PKK guerrillas. This, they
hope, would persuade PKK members to go for a
political struggle and leave the mountains of
Iraqi Kurdistan.
But PKK leaders reject
disbanding their party and leaving Qandil. "The
presence of our forces in the [Iraqi] Kurdistan
region is not something to negotiate over," Joudi
said, adding that the PKK does not use Iraqi
Kurdistan soil to launch its attacks; it has
fighters on Turkish soil for that.
Recent
developments in the region have not been in the
PKK's interest. Iran is seeking to build a
regional alliance with Turkey to defuse
international pressure on its nuclear program. As
a part of this plan it has shelled PKK positions
in Qandil in an apparent bid to appease Turkey.
Iran has also been taking on the Kurdistan
Free Life Party (PJAK), an offshoot of the PKK in
the Kurdish regions of Iran.
The PJAK,
which PKK officials said enjoys limited US
support, has conducted several guerrilla
operations in the predominantly Kurdish areas of
western Iran. The fighting has left dozens of
casualties on both sides.
PKK leaders are
expecting a Turkish military invasion in the
spring. They expect the attack to have limited
scope in terms of "the time and area of
operation".
As the likelihood of a fierce
battle between the PKK and Turkey rises, the
guerrillas' determination is not shaken.
Heval Aslan, now 24, joined the PKK eight
years ago after his village was twice razed by the
Turkish army. He has a serious leg injury, but he
says he can fight - if he has to. "No one wants to
die or to kill. Our motto is that we are prepared
for both peace and war."
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Turkey (PKK)
off these mountains. They accuse the PKK of
launching cross-border operations from Iraq's soil
into Turkey and Iran. 
