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2 Iran ahead of the game - for
now By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
"The US is not escalating tensions with
Iran," said a Pentagon spokesperson in reference
to the major US naval exercise in Persian Gulf
"off the coast of Iran", per the wire reports.
That is, a hair stretch beyond Iran's
12-nautical-mile territorial waters.
The
Iranians can be excused if they think otherwise -
that the purpose of the massive US maneuver at
their doorstep, involving two aircraft-carrier
task forces and some 10,000 troops, is to send a
"strong signal" to them about the price they may
have to pay if
they
persist in defying the will of US power and its
allies. This is not to mention a French aircraft
carrier making a solidarity appearance in Persian
Gulf waters at the same time, thus adding to the
overall Western menace with regard to Iran.
As usual, the US double-speak has
continued unabated. Thus, precisely at a time when
the overwhelming weight of US firepower is put on
full display against the Iranians, Defense
Secretary Robert Gates has expressed the his
country's readiness to engage in "high-level"
dialogue with Iran, as if to make a small dent in
any Iranian paranoia about the military intentions
of the United States.
Gates' small words
of comfort have been overshadowed, however, by the
physical assemblage of brute force piled up in the
narrow corridors of the Persian Gulf and, more so,
by the dire warning issued by British Prime
Minister Tony Blair in response to the Iranian
seizure if 15 British sailors.
Yet no
sooner had Blair threatened to take the issue to
"the next phase" than his foreign secretary tried
damage control by mollifying his statement and
putting the emphasis on "back-door channels".
The latter, it turns out, includes the
Turkish government, which has jumped at the
opportunity to prove Turkey's value to Europe as a
bridge to the Muslim Middle East by offering to
mediate in the standoff and to inspect the seized
sailors. Should Turkey achieve a breakthrough in
this unfolding "dangerous" crisis, the
ramifications with respect to its bid to join the
European Union will be huge.
Simultaneously, there are other reasons to
expect a prominent role for Turkey, given a
growing expressed desire in Iran for a "prisoners'
exchange" and the fact that at least one, and
perhaps as many as five, Iranians apprehended by
the US were abducted in Turkey. Others, including
some diplomats, were abducted from Iraq.
As a result, if Turkey is to be
instrumental in resolving the Iran-British crisis,
its leadership must do so with an eye toward an
exchange of prisoners. Turkey's failure, on the
other hand, will probably cast a large cloud over
an Iraq security summit that is scheduled to take
place in Istanbul in April. Among others,
representatives from the US and Iran are due to
meet.
All signs indicate that with the
exception of the sole female sailor, the release
of the other 14 captives is not imminent, no
matter how tough Blair's rhetoric or the pressures
exerted by the British government and the EU.
Various Iranian politicians, including a
powerful member of parliament (Majlis), Mohammad
Reza Bahonar, have stated that London should not
expect Iran to ignore the violation of Iran's
sovereignty lightly. Iran's embassy in London,
contradicting the British claim that the sailors
were in Iraqi waters, has issued a statement that
puts the sailors half a mile inside Iranian
territorial waters.
Such categorical
statements by both sides invite a lengthy standoff
and tie the hands of those in Iran who may wish a
quick end to this controversy. This is
particularly so in light of the economic pinch
caused by the British government's freeze on
bilateral trade with Iran (worth some US$2
billion). Should Iran make good on its threat to
begin legal proceedings against the
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