Page 2 of 2 The al-Qaeda 'caravan'
visits Algiers By Michael Scheuer
above and a total inventory now
nearing 40 makes those negative arguments moot.
The grassroots instigation bin Laden has been
conducting is working.
Second, the
organizations discussed herein are often referred
to as al-Qaeda "franchises" by terrorism experts
who also argue that the threat from these groups
has replaced the threat from what they refer to as
"al-Qaeda Central" - the insurgent apparatus
directly
commanded and controlled by bin Laden and
Zawahiri.
Recent media reports, statements
by US officials, and especially those by the
director general of the British Security Service
(MI5), Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, whose public
description of a working set of al-Qaeda training
camps in Pakistan strongly suggests that al-Qaeda
Central is not out of business and that the West
now faces two tiers of threat, rather than one
from al-Qaeda. [6]
Third, the list above
appears to reflect bin Laden's success in using
Iraq as contiguous territory from which to reach
into the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula and even
Europe.
Historically, al-Qaeda does not
expend effort, funds and manpower in regions that
do not afford it contiguous safe haven from which
to operate; this consideration kept the group from
making a major effort in the Balkans, and to date
has made it unable to hit the Israelis at home.
Yet of the 24 groups listed above, 16 are
in places that al-Qaeda believed new safe havens
in Iraq would provide it opportunities for
expansion: Egypt (one); Europe (four); Palestine
(two); Lebanon (three); Syria (two); and Saudi
Arabia (four). Although more research needs to be
completed on the idea of Iraq being an al-Qaeda
base for projecting itself into adjacent
countries, it seems that not all of al-Qaeda's
time has been spent fighting US-led coalition
forces in Iraq. [7]
In conclusion, the
GSPC's decision to come under al-Qaeda's umbrella
is in itself an important story; it is a lethal
and talented group that will benefit from its ties
to al-Qaeda while extending the capabilities and
reach of bin Laden's fighters, especially in
Europe and Canada.
Yet its accession is
clearly part of a bigger story that is seeing
al-Qaeda's plans for instigating Muslims to join a
jihad aimed at the far enemy beginning to bear
fruit, and also how those plans are being
furthered by al-Qaeda's ability to operate from
bases in Iraq. As the late Sheikh Abdullah
Azzam claimed when he and bin Laden worked
together in the 1980s, it is the job of Islamist
leaders to persuade Muslims to join "the caravan
fighting in God's way". Bin Laden is carrying on
his mentor's work successfully.
Notes 1. See recent
issues of Terrorism Focus and Terrorism Monitor,
and the GSPC's declaration of allegiance to
al-Qaeda, "The statement and the good news of the
joining with and the pledge of allegiance to
Sheikh Abu Abdullah Osama bin Laden, may God
protect him," Salafist Group for Call and Combat
website, September 13, 2006. 2. Peter G
Tsouras, Civil War Quotations: In the Words of
the Commanders, New York: Sterling Publishing,
Inc, 1998, p 90. 3. Bin Laden defined this
mission in his "Declaration of Jihad against the
United States", Al-Islah, September 2, 1996. He
has restated it many times since. 4.
"Declaration of the World Islamic Front against
Crusaders and Jews", February 26, 1998. 5.
"Al-Zawahiri announces Egypt's Islamic group
leaders joined al-Qaeda", Al-Jazeera TV, August 5,
2006. See also Terrorism Focus, October 10, 2006.
6. Mark Mazetti, "New generation of al-Qaeda
chiefs seen on the rise", New York Times, April 2,
2007. 7. See, for example, Thair Abbas,
"Al-Qaeda presence increases in Lebanon", Al-Sharq
al-Awsat, February 13, 2006; Abd-al-Rahman
al-Rashid, "Al-Qaeda in Syria", Al-Sharq al-Awsat,
July 4, 2005; and Annette Young, "Al-Qaeda gains a
foothold in Palestine", The Scotsman, May 21,
2005.
Michael Scheuer served in
the Central Intelligence Agency for 22 years
before resigning in 2004. He served as the chief
of the Bin Laden Unit at the Counterterrorist
Center from 1996 to 1999. He is the once-anonymous
author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is
Losing the War on Terror and Through Our
Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and
the Future of America. He is now a senior
fellow at The Jamestown Foundation.
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