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2 Tehran ignores the bluff and
bluster By M K Bhadrakumar
The talks between the United States and
Iran at the ambassadorial level, scheduled to take
place in Baghdad on Monday, appear to have begun
meandering even before they commence.
As
such, even if they are held, they may serve little
purpose. But things needn't be as gloomy as they
seem. No one expects an immediate effect or sudden
results. Washington is manifestly uneasy that it
is being called on to negotiate with Iran from a
position of weakness.
On its part, Iran senses that the US is
only seeking a very limited dialogue restricted to
solving its problems in Iraq in practical terms,
without getting into the "big Iraqi picture". And
Iran senses that the US is not committed to
adopting a constructive approach that could lay
the foundations for better mutual understanding
that may lead to cooperation between the two
adversaries and even rapprochement.
Iran's
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while
addressing a gathering of religious figures in the
holy city of Mashhad on May 16, posed the
question, "How is it possible to hold talks with
the US's arrogant, bullying, expansionist
administration and its impolite, reckless and
demanding officials?"
There are no easy
answers. As the countdown began for the Baghdad
talks, in a series of moves, Washington rebuffed
Iran's search for "logical, principled and fair
ties" (to quote Foreign Minister Manouchehr
Mottaki) with the US.
First, Washington
has adopted an inexplicably obdurate stance over
the detention of five Iranian diplomats who were
kidnapped by US forces in the northern Iraqi town
of Irbil in January. Their continued detention is
illogical insofar as their kidnapping itself has
turned out to be a fiasco, a case of mistaken
identity. The US has turned down the Iranian
request for consular access to the detainees,
sought through the International Committee of the
Red Cross.
Arguably, the US is provoking a
"hostage crisis" with Iran. Tehran understands
Washington's game plan. So far it has reacted with
prudence. However, patience is wearing thin.
Mottaki said on May 18, "In meetings with the
Iraqi president, prime minister, foreign minister
and other senior officials, I have told them
clearly that the Iraqi government is responsible
for releasing the kidnapped Iranian diplomats, and
no excuse is acceptable." A crisis is no doubt
brewing unless Washington releases the diplomats
during the next couple of weeks.
Within
two days of Mottaki's warning, Tehran charged a
noted American scholar at the Smithsonian
Institution's Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars, Haleh Esfandiari (who was visiting
Iran), with subversive activities against the
Iranian regime. The Iranian authorities have
detained four Iranian-American nationals in recent
weeks.
Tehran is drawing the attention of
the US public to a potential hostage issue
developing unless Washington releases the
diplomats under detention for close to six months.
Indeed, Esfandiari's case has hit the headlines.
Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama,
Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden have demanded her
release. The US Senate's 16 female members have
jointly sought "urgent" intervention by the United
Nations secretary general. A media campaign has
begun, castigating "Tehran's theocrats". President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been warned of the
"chilling impact" of Esfandiari's detention on
scholars worldwide.
Meanwhile, Washington
launched a virulent media campaign last week to
the effect that Iran is planning a "summer
offensive" against US forces in Iraq by "linking
al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shi'ite
militia allies".
Unnamed US officials in
Baghdad and Washington have alleged a sinister
Iran-al-Qaeda linkup with the intent of giving a
humiliating political and diplomatic defeat to the
US in Iraq. The entire thrust of the propaganda
blitz is that Iran needs to be firmly dealt with,
and that it is only the language of coercion that
the Iranian leadership will respect.
Then,
on Tuesday, came a leak to the American
Broadcasting Co (ABC) by "current and former
officials in the intelligence community" that the
US Central Intelligence Agency has received secret
presidential approval for mounting a "black"
operation to destabilize the Iranian government.
According to the "leak", President George W Bush
has signed a "non-lethal presidential finding"
that puts into motion a covert CIA plan.
The "leak" coincides with a report by
Iranian television that last Sunday Iranian
authorities captured 10 men crossing Iran's
Sistan-Balochistan border with Pakistan with half
a million US dollars in cash along with sensitive
maps and sophisticated surveillance equipment. ABC
quoted unnamed intelligence officials as admitting
that men belonging to Jundullah, a terrorist group
operating in Sistan-Balochistan province, were
involved, and that the group has been receiving US
money and weapons through Pakistani military and
intelligence services.
Significantly,
these sensitive media "leaks" of a highly
provocative nature have appeared virtually on the
eve of the talks in Baghdad. But Washington's
decision to undertake a major show of force off
Iran's coast at this juncture must still come as a
bizarre curtain-raiser to the talks. On Wednesday,
nine US battleships, including two aircraft
carriers, with about 17,000 personnel and 140
aircraft, sailed through the Strait of Hormuz to
participate in exercises that will take place off
Iran's coast over the next few weeks.
If
Tehran had any lingering hopes that Washington
would "soften" the atmospherics for the Baghdad
talks, they will have been conclusively dashed
with the muscle-flexing by the US Navy in the
Persian Gulf. Nonetheless, senior Iranian
officials have made several conciliatory overtures
to the US.
There is good evidence that
while sizing up US intentions, Tehran kept open
until almost the eleventh hour the possibility of
fielding its ambassador to the UN, Javad Zarif, as
its representative in Baghdad. (Washington named
its ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, several days
ago.) By the mere suggestion on Wednesday that the
choice may not after all fall on Zarif, Tehran may
have signaled that it doesn't expect any serious
negotiations to take place.
Tehran would
have calculated that Zarif, who spent half his
adult life in the United States, enjoys excellent
rapport with US officials, politicians and media
persons, and instills confidence in his
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