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2 Turkey not done with the
Kurds By M K Bhadrakumar
While discussing Russia's
military-education system recently, prominent
military thinker and former deputy defense
minister Vitaly Shlykov said, "We have a
completely distorted understanding of military
professionalism.
"Professionalism in the
armed forces, first and foremost, means a solid
liberal-arts education," Shlykov explained. A good
soldier must be rooted well in "purely civilian
disciplines, foreign
languages and history, as well
as tactics".
Shlykov could as well have
been describing the role model of the Turkish
Pashas. The officer corps of the Turkish armed
forces is highly professional by Shlykov's
yardstick. That is what keeps the international
community guessing about the Turkish Army's
intentions toward northern Iraq.
Any
decision by the Turkish Army to move into northern
Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish terrorists operating
out of that region will not be based on security
considerations alone. The Pashas know Mesopotamia
and its history, Kurds and their violent past,
Kurdistan's tangled mountains and Turkey's
complicated geopolitics. They will act cautiously.
But they also know first things come
first. They know a like-minded government in power
in Ankara is a prerequisite. Last Friday, the
Turkish General Staff issued an extraordinary
statement virtually calling on the people to come
out and hold mass rallies over the issue of
terrorism in Turkey. It said, "The Turkish Armed
Forces expects the Turkish nation to show its mass
reflex to resist these terrorist acts."
The statement condemned the critics of
"Kemalism", who include core supporters of the
pro-Islamic ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP). "Turkey has been subjected to a view that
its national and unitary structure was outdated.
Our nation has to be aware of this dangerous
approach. It is evident that the escalating acts
of terror are the clear signs of such ideas and
the distorted mentalities of those who support
these ideas directly or indirectly," the statement
said.
The military expects the people to
take to the streets, just as they did recently
under the banner of "secularism", and demonstrate
against the government. A cat-and-mouse game is
under way. The military says it is ready to act
against the Kurdish terrorists based in northern
Iraq. The government says it and the military
speak with one mind. But the military says it
needs governmental approval for crossing the
border into northern Iraq, and the government says
such approval will follow a written request from
the military.
Meanwhile, Friday's military
statement taps into popular opinion. Parliament is
in recess, as Turkey prepares for polls on July
22. The government says it has no plans to convene
Parliament, while the constitution requires
parliamentary approval for any military operations
on foreign soil.
The AKP hopes to win a
renewed mandate to form the government. The
"Kemalist" camp looks insipid and the rightist
opposition remains in disarray. Except if
nationalist sentiments rise to a crescendo, the
AKP's ideology-based platform seems to appeal to
the electorate. The military's statement on Friday
raises the ante. The AKP cannot jeopardize Western
backing by ordering the military to cross into
Iraq.
Political exigencies require the AKP
to ensure the "Kemalists" do not ride the
nationalist wave, especially the huge groundswell
of "anti-Americanism". The AKP leader, Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has to reiterate
his commitment to fight terrorism, and demand that
the US should act against Kurdish terrorism
bleeding Turkey. The bottom line seems to be that
any major Turkish military operation in Iraq is
unlikely before the parliamentary polls.
Consolidation of political power in Ankara is the
overriding priority of all protagonists at the
moment.
However, there is the inherent
danger that the force of events on the ground may
overtake politicians. There is indeed a new ground
situation. A Kurdish terrorist wave is once again
sweeping across Turkey, reminiscent of the scale
of violence 10 years ago. The Turkish military is
taking heavy casualties. Popular feelings are
running high all over Anatolia and tremendous
anger is building up within the Turkish military.
On the other hand, what can the military
do? It could launch "hot pursuit" attacks inside
Iraq, which fall short of a full-fledged military
operation. But this is already happening. Turkish
troop concentration in border areas is a recurring
feature every year with the advent of spring when
cross-border movement by Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK) militants begins. This year too, from April
onward, the border region has been declared a
special security zone. Turkish artillery has
routinely pounded suspected positions of PKK
guerrillas inside Iraq, and the air force has been
conducting reconnaissance missions. Not
infrequently, "hot pursuit" missions are
undertaken.
During 1983-98 when PKK
terrorism was rampant, the Turkish military
conducted cross-border operations inside Iraq
about 36 times. Some operations were of a large
scale, involving air force and heavy armor. In
1997, troops at corps strength of up to 50,000
crossed the border and went 200 kilometers into
Iraqi territory.
But circumstances were
different then. Saddam Hussein connived in the
muzzling of Kurdish irredentist nationalism. The
US was Turkey's staunch North Atlantic Treaty
Organization ally. Iraqi Kurdish leaders, who
depended on handouts from Ankara, collaborated.
And Iraq wasn't the cynosure of attention in world
politics - let alone Kurdistan's remote mountains.
Now, circumstances have changed. There is
no effective government in Baghdad. Kurdish
nationalism is boiling. Iraqi Kurdish leaders
oppose any crackdown on their fellow Kurds
belonging to the PKK. A de facto Kurdish
government is
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