Iraq waiting for the next shoe to
drop By Kathleen Ridolfo
The latest attack by Sunni insurgents on
al-Askari (Golden) Mosque in Samarra, about 100
kilometers from Baghdad, is an apparent attempt to
goad Shi'ites into launching retaliatory actions.
The attack came just weeks after Shi'ite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr extended an olive branch to Sunni
Arabs and called on his followers to protect and
defend their Sunni brethren in the wake of
al-Qaeda's increasingly bloody attacks that target
all Iraqis without distinction.
The
February 22, 2006, bombing of al-Askari Mosque, which
destroyed the shrine's famous
golden dome, was a watershed moment in Iraq. It
set off a firestorm of sectarian attacks and
counterattacks between Sunni and Shi'ite Arabs in
the country that continues to this day, pushing
the country to the brink of civil war.
The
shrine, which houses the tombs of the 10th and
11th Shi'ite imams - Imam Ali al-Askari and his
son, Imam Hasan al-Askari - is immensely symbolic
to Shi'ites worldwide. They believe that the
revered 12th Imam, al-Mahdi, went into hiding at
the site and will only emerge on the day of
judgment.
The site is also immensely
symbolic to all Iraqis as a historic artifact, and
its destruction signifies a further degradation of
Iraqi history and culture.
As Iraqis brace
for more violence in the wake of Wednesday's
attack, which toppled two minarets at the
partially destroyed mosque, the Iraqi government
imposed a curfew in the capital until further
notice. A curfew is likely to be called in Samarra
as well; the city has a majority Sunni population
and is a base for several insurgent groups,
including al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State of
Iraq.
Divided insurgency Just
how Iraqis respond to the bombing will reveal much
about the emerging climate in the country. In
recent weeks, Sunni insurgents have taken up arms
against the Islamic State, which, because of its
composition of foreign fighters, is viewed as an
outside force that is doing more harm than good to
the home-grown Sunni insurgency.
The
Islamic Army in Iraq, one of the most powerful
Sunni insurgent groups, has publicly chastised the
Islamic State for its attacks on Iraqi civilians.
The Islamic Army has also clarified its position
on the Shi'ites, saying Iraqi Shi'ite civilians
should not be targeted; only those Shi'ites
working to support the so-called Iranian agenda in
Iraq - including the US-supported Iraqi military
and police - should be seen as legitimate targets.
That position has cost the Islamic Army
dearly in terms of wider support among Arab
mujahideen and their supporters, though it is a
position largely supported by other home-grown
Sunni insurgent groups. Such a position matters
because it speaks to the extent that sectarianism
in Iraq has largely been fomented by an outside
force (al-Qaeda) and implies that Muslim unity in
Iraq, though it may take years to salvage, is not
beyond repair.
Muqtada's role
While many of Iraq's most influential
Shi'ite religious leaders have tried to maintain
support for Muslim unity over the past two years,
their message has largely been drowned out by
sectarian hate speech of Sunni and Shi'ite
politicians, and by the actions of Shi'ite
militias, which have contributed to internecine
violence through their actions and rhetoric.
The changing position of Shi'ite
politicians such as Muqtada, who now purports to
support and defend Sunni Arabs, is largely the
result of the political climate surrounding Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki's administration. Muqtada
has always positioned himself as a "nationalist"
Iraqi who, unlike many of Iraq's current leaders,
never fled the country during Saddam Hussein's
regime, but rather remained on Iraqi soil to
defend his nation.
The Iraqi opposition,
he claims, returned to Iraq in 2003 as an outside
force - bent on exploiting Iraq's wealth with the
help of the United States and with no knowledge of
or interest in serving the needs of the Iraqi
people. It is this position that enabled Muqtada
to emerge as a force to be reckoned with.
Though Muqtada has called on his followers
to remain calm and not retaliate, it is likely
that reprisal attacks will be carried out. Muqtada
has increasingly lost control of his militia, the
Mahdi Army, in recent months. The militia has
continued to carry out attacks on Sunni Arabs
despite their leader's call to defend the Sunni
Arab population. Media reports from
Sunni-dominated neighborhoods in Baghdad in recent
days indicate that the Mahdi Army continues to try
to intimidate and impose its will on the Sunni and
minority Christian populations.
Kathleen Ridolfo is the Iraq
analyst for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Online. She writes on Iraq's political, social,
and economic development for the daily RFE/RL
Newsline III and RFE/RL Iraq Report publications.
She worked on Middle East issues for governmental
and non-governmental organizations in Washington
and in the West Bank before joining RFE/RL.
(Copyright 2007 RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington, DC 20036.)
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