Turkey flirts with the Iraq
quagmire By Hilmi Toros
ISTANBUL - Turkey is beefing up military
preparedness against Iraq-based Kurdish rebels as
a prelude to a possible cross-border incursion
that is opposed by the United States, the European
Union and the Iraqi government.
Three
Turkish provinces bordering Iraq have already been
declared "special security" zones, limiting
civilian access in the wake of an increase in bomb
blasts in urban areas, including the capital
Ankara and Istanbul, and attacks on the military.
Although no one has claimed responsibility,
official and public condemnation goes
to
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) insurgents slipping
in from Iraq. In addition, troops and military
hardware are being amassed in Turkey's rugged and
impoverished southeast, in the country's
Kurdish-populated areas.
The daily
newspaper Milliyet reported on Saturday that
Turkish troops were already shelling PKK rebels in
frontier areas within Iraq.
So far,
despite public outcry for a decisive move against
an estimated 3,000 secessionist PKK rebels holed
up in Iraq, there has been no major incursion. But
it has not been ruled out. And if it happens, it
may have serious consequences for Turkey, Iraq and
beyond.
General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of
staff of Turkey's powerful military, announced
publicly in April that a cross-border operation is
feasible - even advisable - if the government
gives the go-ahead. The government of Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, facing opposition
from allies abroad and with national elections on
July 22, took a softer line and said decisive
action is needed against Kurdish rebels within
Turkey before venturing into those holed up in
Iraq. He did not exclude an eventual military
expedition into northern Iraq.
But the
government of the Islamic-rooted Justice and
Development Party (AKP) may not have its way even
if it has 353 members in the 550-seat Parliament.
"Extra-parliamentary" power - particularly
the military and public opinion - has its say too,
as evidenced recently. Erdogan, once a firebrand
Islamist, withdrew his possible candidacy for the
presidency after mass protests against the move,
organized by the secular establishment.
Then, when the ruling AKP nominated
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, also a former
Islamist, for the presidency, the military weighed
in with a sudden midnight announcement seen as
opposing Gul's candidacy. It warned against the
encroachment of Islamic values in a secular
republic.
Gul's candidacy failed to obtain
the required parliamentary majority, and a
constitutional amendment is pending to have the
people, rather than Parliament, elect the next
president.
This time, despite moderation
by the prime minister, retired generals and
opposition parties are appearing on television
talk shows urging tough military action against
PKK rebels, including a foray into Iraq.
Funerals for fallen soldiers often turn
into protests against the government for its
perceived soft stand.
In another move
independent from the government, the military has
urged "mass reaction" by the public against PKK
terrorism. A series of public demonstrations are
scheduled in coming days.
What is at
stake? While incursion into Iraq to chase
PKK rebels will certainly calm the Turkish public,
it may also backfire - and any apparent success
may be more damaging in the long run, according to
some analysts.
Professor Sedat Laciner,
head of the independent International Strategic
Research Organization, a Turkish think-tank,
questioned the wisdom of a large-scale move into
Iraq in a report that has become the subject of
national debate.
"It may irreversibly push
Turkey away from its domestic and foreign
objectives [economic growth and EU membership] and
events could get out of hand once they begin,"
Laciner told Inter Press Service.
He said
a cross-border operation could result in the death
of a "few hundred terrorists", but could also pave
the way for recruitment of many more insurgents.
Laciner does not rule out the possibility
that Turkish troops chasing PKK rebels would be
opposed by Iraqi Kurds and even the US military.
The Kurds in Iraq are the main allies of the
United States in a splintered Iraq: they sided
with the US invasion, while the Turkish Parliament
refused to let the US open a front from its
territory in the war against Saddam Hussein.
Turkey is irked that the United States,
its erstwhile North Atlantic Treaty Organization
ally for more than 50 years and now with a
dominant voice in Iraq, is not firm enough in
pushing the central Iraqi government or the local
Kurdish administration to move against PKK rebels.
Professor Ilter Turan, former rector of
Istanbul's Bilgi University and a vice president
of the International Political Science
Association, said Turkey and the US will find a
way that could satisfy both parties, such as a
limited military operation by Turkey.
According to Laciner, a full-scale Turkish
military action in Iraq before the July 22
election is unlikely, but he expects Turkey to
move in to establish a "buffer zone" before the
summer is out, even if opposed by the US.
The EU and the Iraqi government have also
come out against any Turkish military involvement
in Iraq beyond what is already known: the presence
of some 2,000 Turkish troops on the Iraqi side of
the border in an arrangement made with Saddam in
1997.
While the current focus is on the
PKK (listed by Turkey, the US and the EU as a
terrorist organization), there exists a larger
"Kurdish problem". Turkey, Syria and Iran also
have sizable Kurdish minorities and have
experienced occasional flare-ups of ethnic
tensions.
The Laciner report also says
that if any Turkish military action goes beyond
flushing out PKK rebels to involve fighting with
Iraqi Kurds, it may lead to pan-Kurdish solidarity
that could spell trouble for Turkey, Syria and
Iran, as well as Iraq. The main Turkish concern is
that a strong Kurdish entity in northern Iraq,
including an independent one in case of an Iraqi
meltdown, could embolden its own Kurds to seek
similar status.
The Kurdish population in
the region is estimated at 24 million, with 12
million in Turkey, 4 million in Iran and 2 million
in Syria. Iraqi Kurds claim a population of 5
million.
If there is a Turkish military
foray into Iraq, Turkey's powerful Business and
Industry Association warned of serious economic
consequences, while Moody's Corporation said the
country's credit rating could take a tumble.
Laciner estimates that financial losses
from a large-scale military operation, apart from
military expenditure, could range from US$1
billion to $10 billion, depending on the flight of
foreign capital from Turkey.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
