LONDON - It's a field day for political
obituary writers. Next Wednesday, Tony Blair
leaves Downing Street after a decade in power,
handing over as prime minister to Chancellor
Gordon Brown. Having announced last year that he
would not serve a full third term as prime
minister, Blair is bowing out early. A new
political era is set to unfold in the United
Kingdom. For Blair, a role as a special Middle
East envoy may be next.
Blair's record is
profoundly mixed. Taking office in May 1997, his
was
a hugely controversial premiership. His policies
toward the Middle East have left him admired and
reviled in equal measure at home and abroad. One
thing is certain. In any assessment of the Blair
years, Iraq will loom large.
A popular
British aphorism has it that "all political
careers end in failure". If true, then Blair has
been keen to buck the trend. During the past six
weeks he has rounded off his premiership with a
Bill Clinton-style "farewell tour", unprecedented
for a British premier. Critics have denounced this
as hollow "legacy hunting", akin to the mid-life
crisis of an aging 1970s rock star. Keen to keep
the public wanting more, his visits to world
leaders and summits were clearly designed to
promote the positive aspects of his 10-year
premiership. Historians will now decide.
The caravan moves on First the
good news for Blair. His place in British
political history as the first Labour Party leader
to win three elections in succession is secure.
His formidable political gifts - acknowledged by
supporters and detractors alike - have drawn
admiration across the international political
spectrum. He is now a global brand.
As he
leaves office, Blair will find near-unanimous
support in the United States. Deeply appreciated
in the US, he is regarded, after a decade's
passing, as an articulate, courageous and
steadfast ally. After he positioned the UK as
America's key coalition partner after September
11, 2001, the US/UK "special relationship" is as
strong as ever. He is personally responsible for
the close ties enjoyed between his government and
that of US President George W Bush ever since.
In Britain, it's a different story. Here,
critics claim that Blair was deeply - shamefully -
involved in the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003
against international law and opinion. And they
question the real influence over the Bush
administration he wielded in practice. Many in the
British press and in Parliament charge that in
2002-03 he massaged intelligence contained in
"dodgy dossiers" in support of a US administration
bent on war with Iraq.
Blair, it should be
remembered, told the British people that Iraqi
weapons of mass destruction could reach British
targets in as little as 45 minutes. Such weapons
were never found. He went on to survive charges of
lying and no fewer than four damaging and
high-profile British inquiries into his conduct,
becoming a political Houdini in the process. He
rapidly earned the sobriquet "Teflon Tony" in the
British press. It's a remarkable tale of British
political survival.
But he paid a heavy
price for supporting the Bush administration. Poll
after British poll has denounced him since 2005.
The key issue is trust. Initial British voter
infatuation long ago morphed into profound
distrust and alienation. Put simply, many Britons
increasingly came to believe they had "found Blair
out". Though winning re-election in 2005, his
share of the popular vote was reduced. His ability
to use parliamentary majority to win set-piece
votes faltered and political colleagues
increasingly voiced ever louder dissent. Many of
his own members of Parliament (MPs) now say they
were actively misled over the most serious of
responsibilities - taking a nation to war.
Domestically, plusses and minuses co-exist
uneasily. Blair leaves an economically healthy
Britain yet one anxious over unprecedented levels
of immigration and the tensions created by two
decades of controversial multiculturalism
policies. After the events in London of July 7,
2005, he also leaves a British nation with
experience of mass murder in the name of political
Islam for the first time. More attacks in the UK
by Muslim terrorists are "inevitable", say senior
police officers.
The security service MI5
claims that some 2,000 home-grown extremists in
more than 30 networks pose critical security
risks. It's a time of terror plots real and
suspected in Britain, straight out of the pages of
Joseph Conrad. Trials and convictions of British
Muslims in British courts abound even as the 43
human-rights laws Blair's government brought in
since 1997 hamper successive home secretaries in
their fight against terrorism. Civil libertarians
charge Blair with excessive response, particularly
with proposed measures on indefinite detention
without trial; the tabloids not enough. Surveys of
British Muslim opinion point to the deleterious
effects of his foreign-policy record.
The
domestic controversy continues. Blair bequeaths
constitutional change and devolution powers
granted to Scotland and Wales - with corresponding
English resentment - whose real impact has yet to
be felt. He leaves an entrenched political
establishment modeled wholesale on the Clinton
White House at the expense of the Whitehall
civil-service system. Coteries of media-obsessed
spin doctors, special advisers and "sofa
government" have all altered British political
life, and not for the better. A damaging
cash-for-honors probe has also yet to report.
Blair - though not considered a suspect - was
questioned by police twice, a first for a sitting
British prime minister.
He leaves a
British public weary of thespian political
performances, with each and every issue discussed
in messianic language and in terms of "perpetual
revolution". He hopes his tangible legacy will be
a lasting political settlement in Northern
Ireland, even if built on previous conservative
opposition efforts.
Finally, Blair needs
to answer this political question: Have any of the
major British institutions - supporting health,
education, defense and criminal justice - improved
since 1997? The answers are not encouraging.
But it is in foreign affairs where the
questions really come thick and fast. Blair made
high-profile promises to Africa. He has increased
funding toward alleviating that continent's
suffering totaling some 0.07% of British gross
domestic product - minuscule, perhaps, but still
larger than that of the United States per capita.
He leaves a British foreign policy
reordered from principles of national interest to
a Gladstonian-style "liberal interventionism".
This has reaped political benefits and huge kudos
for Blair in Kosovo and Sierra Leone. The policy -
engineered by late foreign secretary Robin Cook -
undoubtedly saved lives in former Yugoslavia and
Africa. Critics suggest it ignored Zimbabwe and
Darfur. You can say that again.
On
relations with the European Union, climate change
and the so-called Third Way politics, once so in
vogue among the progressive
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