Page 2 of 2 Iran's moment of nuclear
scrutiny By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
political science professor. He has
urged the government to accept the proposal and to
seek tangible incentives from the international
community in return. [1]
However, a number
of other analysts and politicians are concerned
that (a) Iran's acceptance of a "time-out" will be
misinterpreted as a sign of its weakness and (b)
would embolden the US and its allies to capitalize
on it for a permanent cessation of Iran's nuclear
fuel program. This is a legitimate concern that
should
be addressed by the IAEA officials in their
meetings in Tehran.
In view of China's
stance against new sanctions and Russia's official
position that it will back further sanctions only
if the IAEA formally condemns Iran for a breach of
its obligations, Iran's current path of
cooperation with the IAEA is aimed at softening
the international community's opposition to Iran's
uranium-enrichment program.
The idea of
"zero enrichment" is no longer feasible and some
European diplomats are tilting toward the revised
approach reportedly favored by Solana, that is,
the idea of putting a ceiling on low-enriched
uranium under a rigorous IAEA inspection system.
This idea, repeatedly put forth by Iran as
part of its proposed "objective guarantees", is
still adamantly opposed by the US, which
stubbornly clings to, among other things, the
notion of an "international consortium" to produce
nuclear fuel for Iran on foreign, eg, Russian,
territories.
But the pace of developments
on the ground with respect to Iran's nuclear
progress has made those suggestions moot. After
his summit with Bush, Putin's officials have
reiterated Russia's guarantee regarding the return
of spent fuel to Russia, and they are under
contractual obligation to finish Bushehr, or face
embarrassment internationally as untrustworthy
business partners.
Iran has called for a
meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran in
the near future to discuss the nuclear crisis and,
given NAM's past support for Iran's positions,
this will bolster Iran's nuclear diplomacy both
inside and outside the IAEA (and the Security
Council).
If events proceed as envisioned
by Iran, the US will increasingly appear as the
odd man out, playing the spoiler role with regard
to the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Congress is
in the process of devising its own nuclear policy
toward Iran through pending legislation that would
deny US nuclear cooperation to countries that
assist Iran's nuclear program.
If adopted
and signed by Bush, this bill would seriously
complicate the already complex US-Russia
relations, as well as set back the US-Iran
dialogue on Iraq's security, given the bill's
other provision calling for the State Department's
designation of Iran's Revolutionary Guards as
"terrorist".
Such legislative initiatives
would, in effect, torpedo both the nuclear talks
and the Iraq diplomacy. More fruitful would be a
serious consideration of returning Iran's nuclear
dossier from the Security Council to the IAEA if
the Iran-IAEA negotiations prove successful.
There is, after all, the absence of a
legal basis to continue pressing Iran with
sanctions as long as its nuclear activities are
legal within the framework of the NPT, and
monitored by the IAEA. Even leading arms control
experts such as former senator Sam Nun have
admitted as much. Perhaps some of that wisdom will
trickle down to the US Congress and the White
House.
Kaveh L
Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After
Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy
(Westview Press) and co-author of "Negotiating
Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World
Affairs, Volume XII, Issue 2, Summer 2005, with
Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping Iran's
nuclear potential latent", Harvard International
Review, and is author of Iran's Nuclear
Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction.
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