Troops stay in their barracks - for
now By Jacques N Couvas
ANKARA - For a few weeks in the run-up to
Turkey's elections on Sunday, it looked as if the
military would invade northern Iraq. But Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's fingers are expert
at navigating between the buttons of the yellow
and red traffic lights of the road to Irbil.
The decision this week by Erdogan to
postpone military operations on Iraqi soil with
the purpose of neutralizing the armed militia of
the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) had been
anticipated by opposition leaders. A week earlier,
he stated his decision to
order the intervention,
subject to parliamentary approval, during an
impromptu meeting with President Ahmet Necdet
Sezer.
Erdogan had obviously played the
card of reconciliation in the interest of the
nation, while under pressure by Sezer, who was
voicing the concerns of a large part of the
population, and particularly that of the armed
forces, over the government's inaction against
Iraq-based PKK guerrillas.
The prime
minister a week ago had little space to maneuver,
as the president could, theoretically at least,
and in time of recess of the National Assembly,
decide to switch on the green light and let the
military have its way. So Erdogan let everyone
believe that he was prepared to call for an
extraordinary session of Parliament to decide on
the military incursion.
Speaking on
Turkish television, the prime minister was cool
about the whole issue and simply clarified that
"the possibility of getting parliamentary approval
for an operation is not on our agenda right now".
Did he change his mind, or is it yet
another political move on the home straight before
the elections? A reason for the new position, put
forward by members of the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP), is that the timing for a
full-scale offensive in Iraq is bad, as any
distraction of the population could be detrimental
to the democratic process.
More likely are
other considerations, both internal and external.
Turkish Kurds, an ethnic minority with political
rights, are spread over 11 provinces in the
southeastern part of the country and in isolated
villages in other regions, with their total number
estimated to be about 12 million, although
official population statistics show less than 10
million.
A large Kurdish community lives
in Istanbul and its suburbs. In recent years,
Kurdish migration has expanded to other major
urban areas of western Turkey. Some Kurds have
succeeded as tradespeople or qualified workers,
but many lead poor lives in growing shanty suburbs
around large cities.
Kurds from the most
impoverished areas have shown allegiance to the
AKP in recent years. Like most Turks, they are
Sunni Muslims, but their devotion to religion is
pronounced; it is therefore understandable that
the Islamist-origin governing party prefers
caution on a matter as sensitive as a major
offensive against the PKK just days before the
elections.
But there is evidence that
Erdogan is also taking into account external
factors in his cautious approach toward the PKK in
northern Iraq. According to sources in Ankara, US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a
telephone conversation with Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul, requested that Turkey wait
for the steps the US and the Iraqi central
government will take against the PKK before
launching an operation. Earlier reports said Rice
received no firm assurance from Gul that Turkey
would not carry out a cross-border operation.
Erdogan said this week that he was
concerned over recent PKK suicide attacks against
Turkoman minorities living in northern Iraq, the
defense of which is given as one of the reasons
for Turkish military incursion into that area. In
spite of the severe irritation of his government
over the Iraqi authorities' inaction to prevent
such events, he reiterated his proposal that the
whole matter be dealt with through trilateral
talks among Turkey, Iraq and the US.
In
reality, Turkey is disappointed with US support to
the Iraqi government and its tolerance of the
PKK's growing terrorist actions within eastern
Turkey, with use of sophisticated foreign-supplied
weapons. The Iraqi government has repeatedly
reassured Turkey of its willingness to clamp down
on the guerrillas.
The Turkish population,
regardless of geography, political affiliation or
social class, is increasingly vocal in its
anti-Americanism, as recent polls have revealed
and the press reflects on a daily basis. Ahead of
the elections, some candidates adroitly use the
"ugly American" card, and conspiracy theories
abound.
Many analysts, including business
executives and academics, seem genuinely convinced
that the US government plans to create a Kurdish
state, cutting into Iraq and Turkey, under a model
inspired by the creation of the state of Israel in
1948.
An opinion poll conducted last month
on behalf of a private Istanbul university showed
that 35.6% of Turks consider the United States, a
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, a
threat to their nation. The formation of an
independent Kurdish state in Iraq ranks second as
a major threat, with 25.8%, and even Israel is
perceived as inimical to Turkish national
interests by just 4.2% of the persons interviewed.
The rationale for American-phobia is that,
by creating an independent Kurdish state, the US
would seek to destabilize Syria and Iran, whose
populations include large numbers of Kurds -
ranging between 10% and 7% of the country's
citizens.
An argument advanced to support
this theory is that the Kurds of Iraq, who
represent 20-25% of the population, were
instrumental in the demise of Saddam Hussein's
regime. They could, accordingly, be used to
undermine social peace in Iran and Syria.
Rumors on the streets of Ankara and other
cities around the country, as well as in the
editorial offices of newspapers and television
stations, purport that the Turkish security
services are in possession of videotapes of
weapons deliveries by US military staff to PKK
combatants in northern Iraq. These, say critics of
the administration of President George W Bush, are
proof of US perfidy.
Although the prime
minister's reasons to postpone the march to Irbil
in northern Iraq are consistent with his
pragmatism in many areas of his governance, it is
less clear what the feelings, and plans, of the
army are. It would seem unlikely that the - mildly
put - 90-degree turn in policy, although
temporary, could have been announced to
action-hungry armed forces without previous
consensus among the military staff, the presidency
and the government. According to current reports,
80% of active career officers have submitted
voluntary declarations for deployment in the
combat zone.
A claim this week by Iraqi
Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd from
northern Iraq, that Turkey had massed 140,000
soldiers on its border with Iraq put nerves to
test on both sides of the border. Turkey's
military command had no comment, and the US State
Department said there had been no such massive
buildup. Turkey possesses the largest military
force among NATO member states after the US.
In reality, however, Turkish forces are
already operating within 15 or 25 kilometers
beyond the border, in what is called an
anti-terrorist and policing operation, with the
tacit acceptance of the Iraqi government and the
US occupation authorities.
As Turkish tank
commanders patiently queue up before the red light
to the east, it is everyone's guess when, or
whether, Erdogan's fingers will find the green
button.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
