Page 1 of
2 A shot in the arm for
Lebanon By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - There is no new Middle East. It
is "gone with the wind". These were the words of
Hasan Nasrallah, the secretary general of
Hezbollah, addressing a crowd of supporters on the
first anniversary of last summer's Israeli war on
Lebanon. Nasrallah believes that the new Middle
East touted by US President George W Bush is not a
reality.
Indeed, Washington has all but
abandoned its democracy-promotion rhetoric, as
evidenced by the ongoing swing through
the
region by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
Defense Secretary Robert Gates to distribute US$43
billion in new weaponry for Egypt, Jordan, Israel,
Saudi Arabia and Arab states on the Persian Gulf.
Rice spoke of "the commitment of the
United States to security and stability and
progress in the Middle East" after a meeting in
Egypt with the six members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the
United Arab Emirates and Oman) plus Egypt and
Jordan. Rice said the US had had "very intensive
discussions about the various political issues
facing the region ... of the Israeli-Palestinian
issue, of Iraq, of the situation in Lebanon, and
other political issues".
Rice and Gates
will make the usual stops in Egypt and Saudi
Arabia, and Israel, to talk about these problems.
But they won't be going to Syria, and certainly
not to Iran, even though the situation in Lebanon
is at crisis point and these two countries need to
be engaged to help defuse the situation.
The mantle for tackling the Lebanon issue
has been taken up by France, for it, unlike the
US, is at least prepared to acknowledge the
existence of Hezbollah, and its role in Lebanese
politics.
France reconnected On
one front in Lebanon, fighting continues in the
north between the army and the radical Islamic
group Fatah al-Islam. On another front, targeted
political assassinations continue, aimed at the
March 14 Coalition that is headed by parliamentary
majority leader Saad al-Hariri, son of the
assassinated former premier Rafik al-Hariri.
Certain figures in the opposition, such as
Christian leader General Michel Aoun, accuse the
government of corruption, authoritarianism and
working with the US to wipe out the Shi'ites of
Lebanon, because they are a threat to Israel and
an ally of Iran. Hezbollah, which is in
alliance with Aoun, has been demonstrating against
the pro-Western cabinet of Fouad al-Siniora, is
still in the streets of Beirut, refusing to give
in until Siniora steps down. Its position is
backed wholeheartedly by Syria and Iran.
Amid all this tension came the mediating
efforts of France, which last week sent Foreign
Minister Bernard Kouchner to Beirut to meet with
senior players in Lebanon. The French have always
been interested in Lebanon, a former colony to
which they attach tremendous political and
cultural importance.
Relations had been
personalized under former president Jacques
Chirac, who rallied the French behind the Hariri
family because of his personal friendship with
Rafik Hariri. Chirac was unable to deal with
Lebanon (at least not since 2005) as an honest or
impartial broker. That resulted in his strained
relationship with Syria, since he believed, like
March 14, that Syria was responsible for the
murder of Hariri.
That changed when
Nicolas Sarkozy came to power in May. In his
mediating efforts, the new French leader reached
out to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, realizing that
any deal in Lebanon could not be implemented - let
alone made - without compliance of these principal
players with whom Chirac had simply refused to
deal, as the US still does.
It did not
really matter if Sarkozy agreed with Syria, or
even liked Damascus; what mattered was that he
needed Syria to help solve the problems in
Lebanon. This new French approach, along with the
possibility of Sarkozy going to Damascus, has been
greatly welcomed by Syria. That is why it
encouraged its allies in Lebanon to take part in
the French-sponsored talks.
Kouchner's
visit to Lebanon, however, was not entirely
satisfactory, despite Syrian and Iranian efforts
to make it succeed. Sarkozy was bringing both
countries back into the limelight, recognizing
their say in Lebanon at a time when the US has
been trying all possible ways to undermine their
regional influence. They fact that they are being
consulted, and involved, is very important.
At the French-sponsored dialogue in
Beirut, Kouchner pushed for the following
points:
All parties must guarantee that presidential
elections be held as scheduled in September to
avoid creating a constitutional vacuum.
There should be agreement between all rival
parties on who the new president will be, someone
who is accepted by both March 14 and the
Hezbollah-led opposition. The president will be
elected by a two-thirds majority in Parliament, as
customarily done since the 1940s.
When and if a cabinet of national unity is
created, representing all parties, then all should
pledge not to resign from office no matter what
the circumstances, so as not to bring the country
back to Square 1.
A joint committee of all sides will be
created, under the auspices of the French, to
facilitate the creation of a new
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