Page 2 of 2 A shot in the arm for
Lebanon By Sami Moubayed
government.
Since there will be no parliamentary elections,
March 14 will still have a majority. Meaning, the
new prime minister will be a member of the Hariri
coalition.
Hezbollah has accepted all of
Kouchner's points except the first, saying that it
cannot guarantee that presidential elections will
be held on time, since Parliament will not be
reopened and no quorum will be reached as long as
the Siniora cabinet remains in power. It calls for
the resignation of Siniora first, and presidential
elections second. March 14
says the exact opposite.
The two sides
differ on what the new cabinet will look like.
March 14 has proposed a "19+10+1" formula that
keeps 19 seats with the Hariri bloc, 10 with the
opposition, and one independent. The opposition,
however, says this is too little, demanding 13
seats for Hezbollah and its allies and only 17 for
the Hariri bloc and March 14.
Speaking at
a press conference after these differences
resurfaced in Beirut, Kouchner said: "What
happened over the last three days was not failure.
It was progress." The French see that the
situation is so tense that the mere fact that
these leaders are sitting around a table, talking
rather than trading accusations, is a step
forward.
Kouchner added, "War is possible
in Lebanon. Because I know Lebanon's history,
unfortunately, there are 64 years of Lebanon's
existence, and 34 years of war. This is not a
surprise." Ending on a positive note, he said,
"The people who can make war tomorrow can have
dialogue today."
Immediately after the
French minister's visit came that of Spanish
Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos, who also
met with members of Hezbollah, notably Sheikh
Naiim Qasim, its deputy secretary general. This is
new, since Europe has been following the US line
on Hezbollah for some time, and shows European
seriousness to take the lead in Lebanon and find a
solution, regardless of US interests in the Middle
East.
In March, Javier Solana, the
European Union's foreign-policy chief, visited
Syria to talk the Syrians into finding solutions
for Lebanon. Among other things he promised a set
of incentives, such as Damascus signing a
partnership agreement with the EU. This time,
after Moratinos visited Beirut, Solana said the
ball "is in Syria's court", calling on Damascus
again to use its considerable influence with
Hezbollah to talk them into a political agreement
with March 14 that will spare the country more
chaos and confusion.
Meanwhile, while
Europe is trying to compartmentalize and find
common ground with the Lebanese, the US is still
working to undermine Hezbollah. One method has
been to freeze assets of organizations accused of
financing the Lebanese group. This week, the US
targeted the Tehran-based Shaheed Organization
because the head of its Beirut branch, Qasim Alik,
was a ranking member of Hezbollah who now works
with the Hezbollah-owned Jihad for Construction
Company that is rebuilding southern Lebanon.
Another way is to increase its military
aid to Israel by 25% (about $30 billion over a
10-year period). Both gestures were downplayed by
Nasrallah, who insisted in a message aimed at the
US, and Israel: "We possess, and will continue to
have, missiles that can reach any place in
occupied Palestine."
Nasrallah, who was in
Damascus last week to meet with Iranian President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad, seems as defiant as ever,
stressing at every possibility that civil war for
Lebanon is not on his agenda.
Speaking on
the war anniversary, Nasrallah said, "Our message
is clear. We want Lebanon to be a country for all
its sons and sects. We do not want to change the
political structure and do not aim at ruling
Lebanon, or controlling it. The maximum of what we
want is political partnership. The maximum of what
we want is that electricity reaches our districts
[the Shi'ite districts that are greatly
underdeveloped] like it reaches others. The
maximum of what we want is to be treated as
Lebanese citizens," a reference to those in March
14 who accuse Hezbollah of taking orders from
Tehran and Damascus.
Then, referring to
the media war against Hezbollah, Nasrallah added,
"There is no need for anybody to talk about an
Islamic state, the Islamification of Lebanon, or
control of the Shi'ites. All of that is illusions
aimed at conflict."
Will the US be able to
solve the issues in Lebanon without turning to
Iran, Syria and Hezbollah? The Americans refuse to
recognize reality. The French - more experienced
in the Middle East - know better. They realize
that results are not achieved overnight in the
Arab world and it takes patience, wisdom and
concessions to get things done with the Arabs.
Perhaps Round 1 of Kouchner's talks in
Beirut did not go as planned. Other rounds are
needed. As long as he can bring all parties
together, and use France's considerable weight to
get March 14 to work with Hezbollah, then progress
is possible in Lebanon.
Hezbollah wants
somebody in the international community to realize
- and say - that it has a right to live in
Lebanon. By inviting Hezbollah to Paris, the
French are actually saying that. If this is the
price Paris has to pay to get Lebanon on its feet,
then so be it.
Sami Moubayed is
a Syrian political analyst.
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2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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