Page 1 of
2 Maliki's options rapidly
shrinking By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - As Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki wrapped up a two-day visit to Syria
aimed at appeasing the Arab neighborhood and the
Sunnis within Iraq, a criminal court in Baghdad
was bringing charges of genocide against 15 of
Saddam Hussein's strongmen.
Judge Mohammad
Uraibi, head of the Higher Criminal Court, accused
former senior Iraqi officials of mass murder
against Shi'ites in southern and central Iraq in
1991. The trials made it on
to the
inner pages of Al-Hayat, the leading pan-Arab
daily newspaper. (The Syria visit made page 1.)
Standing trial was Ali Hasan al-Majid,
known in the West as "Chemical Ali", who has
already been sentenced to death by an Iraqi court
for war crimes during the era of the late
president Saddam Hussein. When asked to say his
name before court, he arrogantly replied: "I am
the warrior Ali Hasan al-Majid. I worked in the
great Iraqi Army to serve dear Iraq."
His
response spoke volumes about how the Sunnis regard
their role in Iraq. They are still living in a
bygone era, clinging to a status that has been
denied them by the post-2003 rulers of Baghdad, a
status that - if anything - is very detached from
reality. Majid, who certainly does not represent
Iraqi Sunnis but nevertheless is one of them,
refuses to acknowledge that he is no longer a
"warrior". The "great Iraqi Army" that he served
no longer exists, and "dear Iraq" is now in chaos
and civil war.
What is happening in Iraq
is a dialogue of the deaf. Maliki's Shi'ite-led
coalition refuses to listen to the Sunnis -
despite the cosmetic talk coming out to the media
- and the Sunnis refuse to collaborate with the
new administration, unless their conditions are
met, their power base is enhanced, and their
political rights are guaranteed.
One week
before Maliki went to Damascus, a new coalition
called The Moderate Front was announced in
Baghdad. It has been described as a
Shi'ite-Kurdish alliance because its prime
architects are, in addition to Maliki (who is a
Shi'ite), Adel Abdul-Mehdi (of the Supreme Iraqi
Islamic Council or SIIC and another Sh'iite), and
the Kurdish leaders Masoud al-Barzani, president
of Iraqi Kurdistan, and Jalal Talabani, president
of Iraq.
The alliance is the product of
several factors. One is the walkout of 17
ministers in Maliki's 37-member cabinet. He has
been abandoned by Sadrists, Sunnis, and supporters
of the former Iraqi prime minister, the secular
Iyad Allawi. Maliki is in desperate need of allies
to prevent his cabinet from collapse. The
alliance's support of towering figures such as
Talabani, Barzani and Abdul-Mehdi is believed to
cover up the walkout of the Iraqi Accordance
Front, the Fadila Party, the Iraqi National List
of Allawi, and the Sadrists.
The truth
remains, however, that the new alliance does not
represent all Iraqis. It does not have any Sunnis
within it, nor does it have any independent
Shi'ites who are not pro-Iran. The Shi'ites
represented are all from the middle-class,
affluent sectors of society. The alliance has no
Sadrists, who represent the poor and the youth of
Iraqi slums.
The US Embassy in Baghdad was
not enthusiastic about it, claiming that it should
not have been announced until Sunnis were allowed
to join. That is the legacy of former US
ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, who left Baghdad
preaching to all parties involved to work with the
Sunnis. Without them there will be no stability in
Iraq.
Maliki turned a deaf ear to these
words of wisdom, and instead provoked the Sunnis
who were in government at the time into walking
out on him. Current Ambassador Ryan Crocker played
down the importance of the new alliance, saying,
what good is an alliance of parties that are
already allied? The Kurds and Shi'ites of the
United Iraqi Alliance already have much to gain
from one another.
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the
leader of the SIIC, has called for the creation of
an autonomous Shi'ite district in southern Iraq.
With the Sunnis clearly opposing it, since it
would further carve up Iraq and deprive them of
oil, he needs the Kurds to support him. For their
part, the Kurds are seeking the annexation of
oil-rich Kirkuk to Iraqi Kurdistan. This also is
vehemently opposed by the Sunnis - and by Syria,
Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
The Kurds fear that the expansion of the
United Nations' duties in Iraq will in effect
internationalize several pending problems, such as
the issue of Kirkuk, and this is something that is
not in their favor. The Shi'ites have promised to
cooperate with the Kurds on this issue, which
explains the marriage of convenience between them.
Maliki has voiced his support for Article 140 of
the constitution, which calls for a referendum in
Kirkuk to see whether its inhabitants want to be
annexed to Kurdistan. To tip the vote in favor of
annexation, he has started to resettle thousands
of Arabs in other parts of Iraq, to increase the
Kurdish population of Kirkuk. In response to
this newfound alliance, an opposition one is being
formed by Sunnis and opponents of the prime
minister. It will likely include the Iraqi
Accordance Front (which has 44 seats of
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