A hidden menace in Bush's words on Iran
By Trita Parsi
WASHINGTON - The George W Bush administration has seemingly taken advantage of
the Congressional recess to escalate tensions with Iran.
This month, the State Department revealed plans to designate the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a global terrorist organization. On
Tuesday, in a speech to US war veterans in Nevada, Bush raised the temperature
further by declaring his intent to "confront Tehran's murderous activities" in
Iraq.
But what on the surface may appear as business as usual in the war of words
between Tehran and Washington may in reality
repeat an earlier pattern widely suspected to have been aimed at provoking war
with Iran.
With Congress gearing up for a fight with the White House on the "surge" policy
in Iraq, Bush has arguably many reasons to talk up tensions with Iran. Focusing
on Iran may help deflect attention away from the "surge" strategy's failure to
turn the tide in Iraq. It can also help convince Congress that Iran is
responsible for US misfortunes in Iraq and that cutting the funds for the war
would embolden the clergy in Tehran.
Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is certainly not making the work of the
administration more difficult. Shortly before Bush's address to the Nevada war
veterans, Ahmadinejad did his part in ratcheting up tensions.
"Soon, we will see a huge power vacuum in the region," he predicted at a press
conference. "Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap, with the help of
neighbors and regional friends like Saudi Arabia, and with the help of the
Iraqi nation," he continued in a clear reference to the US's declining position
in the Middle East and Iran's bid to reclaim a regional leadership role.
Still, the nature and implications of the Bush administration's recent moves do
not have the characteristics of a customary rhetorical deflection exercise.
Accusing Iran of seeking to put an already unstable Middle East under "the
shadow of a nuclear holocaust" and promising to confront Tehran - whose actions
"threaten the security of nations everywhere" - before it is too late echo
statements made by the Bush White House about Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein
prior to the invasion of Iraq.
In fact, Bush's speech to the veterans in Nevada has several similarities to
his address to the nation on January 10. That was also slated as a major speech
on Iraq, though it spelled out little new about Washington's strategy except to
call for staying the course. Instead, it revealed key elements of the US's new
aggressive posture on Iran.
For the first time, the president accused Iran of "providing material support
for attacks on American troops" while promising to "disrupt the attacks on our
forces" and "seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and
training to our enemies in Iraq".
Moments after the president's speech in January, US Special Forces stormed an
Iranian consulate in Irbil in northern Iraq, arresting five Iranians who Tehran
said were diplomats. Washington described the detained Iranians as agents and
members of the IRGC. Later that day, US forces almost clashed with Kurdish
Peshmerga militia forces when seeking to arrest more Iranians at Irbil's
airport.
The US move drew stark criticism from the Iraqi government. "What happened ...
was very annoying because there has been an Iranian liaison office there for
years and it provides services to the citizens," Iraq's Minister of Foreign
Affairs Hoshiyar Zebari told Al-Arabiya television.
Similarly, Bush's harsh words for Iran in Nevada were promptly followed by a
raid at the Sheraton Ishtar Hotel in Baghdad where eight Iranian nationals were
arrested. The group included two diplomats and six members of a delegation from
Iran's Electricity Ministry. A US-funded radio station reported that the
Iranian delegation was in Baghdad to negotiate contracts on electric power
stations.
While the eight Iranians were later released - unlike the five taken in Irbil
who still remain in US custody - actions of this kind combined with the
intensified war of words can, intentionally or by accident, trigger a larger
crisis. (A US official later called the Sheraton incident "regrettable" and
denied that it was related to Bush's remarks in Nevada).
In January, the president's allegations against Iran were widely seen as
preparing the grounds for war. Key lawmakers in the newly elected Democratic
Congress moved swiftly to challenge the administration and demand evidence for
its claims.
At a hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee a day after the
president's January 10 address, Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska drew parallels
with the Richard Nixon administration's attempt to deceive the public regarding
the US government's efforts to expand the Vietnam War into Cambodia.
"[O]ur government lied to the American people and said we didn't cross the
border going into Cambodia. In fact we did," he told Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice. "I think this speech given last night by this president
represents the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in this country since
Vietnam, if it's carried out. I will resist it," Hagel continued.
Other lawmakers publicly questioned the veracity of the president's allegations
regarding Iranian involvement in Iraq. All in all, the pushback from Congress
in January is believed to have played a key role in preventing hawks in the
administration from forcing the US into a military confrontation with Iran.
But with Congress preparing for a fight over Iraq - not Iran - and with key
lawmakers planning to pass legislation imposing harsh new sanctions on Tehran,
Congress' ability and willingness to simultaneously contain deliberate or
unintentional escalation with Iran may be limited. If so, there may be little
business as usual about Washington and Tehran's intensified war of words.
Dr Trita Parsi is the author of Treacherous Alliances - The
Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States (Yale University Press,
2007). He is also president of the National Iranian American Council - http://www.niacouncil.org/.
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