Page 2 of 2 Syria and Israel flirt with
war By Sami Moubayed
wrongs" done
to his image in Lebanon. Only after waging a war -
and either winning or not losing it - can Olmert
project himself as a peacemaker.
Egypt's
Anwar al-Sadat could not go to Camp David in 1978
without having waged the October war against
Israel in 1973. Yitzhak Rabin could not have gone
to Oslo in 1993 without having obtained plenty of
war medals in every Israeli war since 1948. And
the
same applies to Olmert. That is why war - rather
than peace - is more likely on the prime
minister's agenda.
This war would have to
be either with Syria or with Hezbollah. In his
latest speech before Parliament in May, President
Bashar al-Assad said defeated leaders (like
Olmert) can do strange things - such as go to war
rather than make peace with their neighbors. In a
speech in July, Assad re-emphasized his country's
willingness for peace, saying: "The most Syria
could do is send a Syrian to a neutral place to
negotiate with a third party, who in turn would
convey Syria's message to the Israelis, who might
be staying at another hotel. Direct talks between
Syria and Israel are also out of the question at
this stage."
The basis of any Syrian
cooperation would be the borderline of June 4,
1967. He also asked for guarantees, saying that
from experience in the 1990s, Syria does not trust
the Israelis. "We did not trust them before the
1990s and now distrust them further." He asked for
something similar to the agreement reached with
the late Israeli leader Yitzhak Rabin, which
promised to restore the Golan Heights in full to
Syria.
Peace with Syria was initially
vetoed by US President George W Bush in the
aftermath of the occupation of Iraq in 2003, when
he said "Syria has to wait" until all other
pending issues are solved in the Middle East. That
was seconded by both prime minister Ariel Sharon,
who was not interested in talks with the Syrians,
and his successor, Ehud Olmert.
This lack
of interest continued until 2006. Then Israel
suddenly seemed to change course with regard to
Syria. Public opinion in Israel shifted. Many
believe that only Syria can secure Israel's border
with Lebanon. Making peace with the Syrians, the
Israelis believed, seemed all the more logical
since it automatically would mean a calm front
with Hezbollah.
Early this year, the
Israeli daily Ha'aretz said secret talks had taken
place in Europe between Israelis and a private
Syrian citizen. In April, US House of
Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to
Damascus with a message to Assad from Olmert. The
Israeli press went into a frenzy in revisiting the
Syrian-Israeli peace track. The "Syria story" made
headlines in the Israeli press, and quotes from
Syrian newspapers began appearing in leading
Israeli dailies, to monitor Syria's readiness for
peace.
One reason for the about-turn was
domestic pressure on the Israeli prime minister.
His Kadima-Labor cabinet seemed on the verge of
collapse. The Winograd Report on the summer war
nearly destroyed his career, because its findings
implicated some of his top officials in
wrongdoings during the Lebanon war of 2006. The
premier needed to divert Israeli attention - fast
- to steal the limelight from former prime
minister Ehud Barak, who was making a political
comeback in Israel.
In July, Olmert
appeared on Al-Arabiyya TV, addressing the Syrian
leader: "Bashar al-Assad, you know that I am ready
for direct talks with you. I am ready to sit with
you and talk about peace, not war." He added, "I
will be happy if I could make peace with Syria. I
do not want to wage war against Syria." The US did
not seem to mind this change of policy, since it
also needed the Syrians to cooperate on two
issues: Iraq and Lebanon. Bush would also be
interested in a rapprochement with the Syrians,
either for dialogue with Iran, via Syria, or to
learn more about the Iranians through Damascus.
The Syrians were unimpressed by the
Israeli conditions for peace, which included
halting Syria's cooperation with Hamas, Hezbollah
and Iran. In response, the Jerusalem Post ran an
article on July 11 saying war with Syria was
"possible". This coincided with mobilization of
the IDF on the Golan border, and reports in
Israeli dailies saying that 70% of the army's
reservists were taking part in exercises along the
Golan.
Israel also declared that one of
its famous units, the Golan Brigade, had just
completed intensive training in war games. Guy
Hazoot, the officer in charge of the 91st Division
deployed along the border with Lebanon, noted:
"The worst case is war, and we have to be prepared
for the worst case."
The Jerusalem Post
added that if war were to break out with Syria, it
would be many times worse for Israel than its
confrontation with Hezbollah in 2006. While all of
that was coming out of Israel, raising red alerts,
there were also contradicting gestures by Israeli
officials.
One came from deputy chief of
staff of the IDF, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky,
who said: "I hear the voice, but to the best of
our assessment, which is also my personal
assessment, we do not expect a war this summer
from Syria." Israel's mobilization on the Syrian
border was in response to Syrian troop movements,
he added, calling it a "defensive" measure.
United Press International, however,
quoted "well-informed sources in Washington"
saying that a "confrontation between Syria and
Israel may happen this summer". This was echoed by
Dennis Ross, a Middle East envoy of the era of US
president Bill Clinton, who was quoted in the
online version of Yediot Aharonot as saying there
was a serious "risk" of war between both
countries, adding, "The Syrians are positioning
themselves for war."
At this stage, all
options are on the table, although a political
decision for war has not been reached by either
country because war would be devastating to the
already troubled Middle East.
Israel and
the US cannot ignore the fiasco in Iraq. They are
unable to predict what the Iranian response would
be to an Israeli war with Syria, or how Hezbollah
and Hamas would react. The rational center in the
US would certainly not allow it - given their
stance on troubled Iraq.
Finally, the
Israelis are thinking twice about what it means to
go to war with Syria. Although sometimes warfare
with traditional bulky armies can be easier than
with guerrilla groups like Hezbollah, the Syrian
army is not an easy one to tackle. It has strong
defenses, and a well-built missile system - not
just Katyusha rockets - that could cause real pain
within Israel.
Officials within the
Israeli system say Syria will regret its actions
if it goes to war against Israel. The Syrians are
saying it is Israel that will suffer from war with
Damascus. They seem confident that the myth of the
IDF's superiority was shattered by its poor
performance against Hezbollah in 2006.
Although they may not win a war with
Israel, the Syrians could certainly make Israel
suffer. One thing is certain from all the talk
coming out of Damascus: the Syrians do not want
war.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
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