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2 All power to the weak in
Lebanon By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Lebanon's Parliament on Tuesday
postponed the first stage in electing a new
president after a Hezbollah boycott. If
legislators do manage to complete the process -
despite the mountainous obstacles - it will be the
first real election in Lebanon since the country
erupted into civil war in 1975.
Parliament's 127 deputies will now vote
next month on who should replace pro-Syrian
President Emile Lahoud, whose term ends on
November 23. Parliament has
until then to finalize the issue, though there is
disagreement over just how this should be done to
get a new man in Baabda Palace.
Lebanese
politics is sharply polarized into two camps,
which refuse to back down. On another level, the
contenders are divided Lebanon caught in a proxy
war between the great powers.
One faction
is headed by Saad al-Hariri, the
parliamentary-majority leader who rose to fame
after the assassination of his father, former
prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, in 2005. It
includes heavyweights from the Sunni community,
like Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora, the
Christian community, including former warlord
Samir Gagegea and ex-president Amin Gemayel, and
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
Most of this
team (with the exception of Gagegea and Gemayel)
were once loudly pro-Syrian. They worked with and
legitimized the Syrian military presence in
Lebanon throughout the 1990s. As long as the
Syrians continued to support and reward them with
government office, they remained pro-Syrian. All
of them, including Jumblatt and Siniora, were
ministers under Rafik Hariri, during the Syrian
heyday in Lebanon.
Matters changed,
however, when the Syrians abandoned Hariri in
favor of Lahoud. They feared that Hariri had
become too strong in the international community
(thanks to his friendship with then-French
president Jacques Chirac), and too independent in
Lebanon. The only person to "clip his wings" was a
military officer - someone like Lahoud, Damascus
reasoned.
Hariri objected to Lahoud's
ascent in 1998 on the grounds of democracy,
claiming that an officer would turn Lebanon into a
police state. As a result, he resigned and moved
into the opposition in 1998-2000. Lahoud greatly
persecuted the Hariri bloc and brought charges of
corruption against many of its members, including
then-finance minister Siniora.
Hariri made
a thundering comeback in 2000, winning
parliamentary elections and imposing himself on
Lahoud, who was becoming increasingly unpopular
within Lebanon. Relations were poor between the
president and his new prime minister. Hariri tried
hard to continue appeasing the Syrians and even -
very unwillingly - agreed to extend Lahoud's
mandate in 2004.
Relations between
Hariri's team and both Lahoud and Syria broke
after Hariri's assassination in February 2005. The
Hariri bloc blamed Syria and Lahoud's generals for
the murder. This explains why this team is so bent
today on electing a new president from within its
parliamentary bloc. Controlling the premiership
through their parliamentary majority (won in 2005)
they would be in complete control of Lebanon if
the presidency went their way as well.
This team, known as the March 14
Coalition, is backed by the United States, France
and Saudi Arabia. All three are traditional
friends of the Hariri family and support his
political movement for a variety of reasons.
First, it is pro-Western and opposes the Syrians.
Second, it holds Sunni heavyweights who are
opposed to the strengthening of Iran-backed
Lebanese Shi'ites (mainly Hezbollah).
Supporting Hariri is part of the US scheme
(devised by Deputy National Security Adviser
Eliott Abrams and Vice President Dick Cheney) to
counterbalance Iranian influence in the Arab world
and halt the spread of so-called Shi'itification.
After all, Hariri and Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah have very different agendas for
Lebanon. One wants to transform Lebanon into an
investment hub and tourist center for the Arabs.
The other wants it as a hotbed to combat the
Israelis. One is committed to a booming economy.
The other wants to liberate the Sheeba Farms (and
Palestine) from Israeli occupation. The Saudis, in
addition to their strong ties to the Hariri
family, are very much opposed to seeing Lebanon
ablaze. They have too much at stake (both in
financial and political investments) to see
Lebanon fall apart. They cannot let Lebanon fall
into the hands of the Iranians. That is why they
are betting on Hariri to bring down the Hezbollah
coalition.
Scramble over candidates
In this presidential race, there are three
candidates from March 14: Boutros Harb, Robert
Ghanem and Nassib Lahoud. All of them, by nature
of Lebanese norm, are Maronite Christians. Two
have to step down for March 14 to choose one
candidate for the job.
That choice,
undoubtedly, will rest on what the Christian
heavyweights in March 14 (Gagegea and Gemayel)
decide, and what is advised by the US, France and
Saudi Arabia. Ghanem, who has little support, is
unlikely to continue. The draw remains between
Harb and Lahoud.
Sources in Lebanon claim
that the Americans "prefer" Harb and the Saudis
"prefer" Lahoud. The French are undecided, with an
official line saying they will back whoever is
selected by the Lebanese people. Press reports in
Beirut, however, claim that France is in favor of
avoiding a crisis by bringing army commander
Michel Suleiman - a compromise candidate - to
Baabda Palace.
The proposal envisages an
interim period of two years, during which a new
election law will be devised and current tensions
will be resolved. That suggestion is problematic,
however, because it would require a constitutional
amendment to allow Suleiman to run as he is a
government employee and thereby barred from
standing.
Suleiman is neither pro- nor
anti-Syrian and is a decorated officer whose
approval ratings have skyrocketed in recent weeks
after his men defeated Fatah al-Islam, a terrorist
Islamic group, at the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp
in northern Lebanon. March 14 does not object to
him and Hezbollah likes him because he firmly
believes in the need to combat Israel, saying at
every occasion: "The rifles of the Lebanese Army
should always remain pointed at the Israelis."
If he becomes president, he will not work
to disarm Hezbollah - on the contrary, he will try
to find common ground between it and March 14 and
lobby to give Hezbollah and the Shi'ites in
general a greater role in decision-making. That
scores him points with the Syrians and Iranians,
but limits the chances of his success with March
14, Saudi Arabia and the US.
The
Saudis' man The Saudis like Lahoud
because, of all the March 14 candidates, he is by
far the most principled. Lahoud, a cousin of the
current president and son of Salim, a former
minister, is from Baabdat, Metn province, in Mount
Lebanon. He studied engineering in
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