Page 2 of
2 All power to the weak in
Lebanon By Sami Moubayed
Britain and returned to Lebanon to
start an engineering company serving the Middle
East. At the end of the civil war, he became
ambassador to the United States and became a
parliamentarian in 1991, re-elected in 1992, 1996
and 2000.
Lahoud, founder and head of the
Democratic Renewal Movement, is highly respected
within Lebanon, although he failed in the
parliamentary elections of 2005. Although the
Saudis see him as the best bet, they do not want
to force him on the Lebanese. If
that
happens, they fear that Hezbollah will rebel and
refuse to recognize his legitimacy, electing a
pro-Iranian president instead, resulting into two
parallel governments in Lebanon.
One would
be backed by the Saudis and the international
community. The other would be recognized only by
Syria and Iran and possibly other anti-US
countries. Inasmuch as the Saudis want to support
their Lebanese allies, they also are striving to
localize the conflict rather than internationalize
it.
They are already not pleased with how
March 14 took the issue of the tribunal into
Hariri's death to the United Nations. That is why
the Saudis have not lobbied aggressively for the
Lebanese presidency, but rather supported a recent
initiative by Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally who is
Speaker of Parliament.
The initiative says
that the Hezbollah-led opposition will stop
calling for the downfall of the Siniora cabinet
(they have been demonstrating against it since
last December). In return, both parties have to
agree on who the next president will be and find a
candidate that is acceptable both to Hezbollah
(meaning Syria and Iran) and March 14 (meaning
Saudi Arabia, France and the US).
Saudi
Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal welcomed the Berri
initiative, and King Abdullah sent a strong
message to the Hezbollah-led opposition by
receiving one of their patrons, Sheikh Abdul-Amir
Qabalan, in Saudi Arabia. Qabalan heads the Higher
Islamic Shi'ite Council in Lebanon.
The
other main March 14 candidate is Boutros Harb. A
lawyer by profession, he was minister of education
in the early 1990s. If he doesn't work out, the US
is betting on a third solution - a compromise
candidate just like Suleiman.
The
Americans' man is Riad Salameh, the veteran
governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon. Salameh,
a highly accomplished man, is an independent who
is accredited for stabilizing the Lebanese pound
during the troubled times the country has gone
through (including a war with Israel) since 2005.
Few will mind bringing him to power if
their original candidates are vetoed by the other
party. Salameh's main obstacle, like Suleiman, is
the constitution. To find an excuse to bring him
to Baabda, if all else fails, the Lebanese are
saying that Salameh is "contracted" by the
government and not officially employed by it.
While the Syrians and Iranians will not
oppose Salameh, they nevertheless are very much
opposed to anybody from March 14. They fear that
an anti-Syrian president will disarm Hezbollah and
transform the country into a hotbed for
anti-Syrian activity. Additionally, all of Syria's
friends will become marginalized in a state
controlled by a president and prime minister from
March 14. The fact that the US is so involved in
these elections, although it has called on all
parties to stand back, makes things more worrying
for the Syrians.
US Ambassador Jeffrey
Feltman said Lebanon is a strategic partner for
the US in the Middle East. Feltman has prolonged
his stay in Lebanon until after the elections, and
his successor, Michele Sison, has not arrived from
the United Arab Emirates. That too worries the
Syrians, who suspect foul play. As far as the
Syrians are concerned, this means the US is
planning to try to manipulate the elections
through Feltman, an outright supporter of March
14.
If asked whom they prefer, Syrians
generally give a neutral answer, similar to that
of France. Syria's stance has been to distance
itself, at least in public, from showing any
partisan attitude with regard to Lebanon. This was
clear in President Bashar al-Assad's inauguration
speech in July, when he made no mention whatsoever
of Lebanese affairs.
Deep at heart,
however, the Syrians are not sure who their best
bet is. The obvious choice is Michel Aoun, the
former army commander who is allied to Hezbollah.
Aoun, however, is known for being a loudly
anti-Syrian statesmen since he launched war
against the Syrian army in Lebanon in the late
1980s.
The Syrians defeated him and exiled
him to France, where he remained until the Syrians
left Lebanon in 2005. He allied himself with
Hezbollah not because of love but because of
demographics. He has always wanted the presidency
and realized that because of Shi'ite numerical
superiority, he needed their support to reach
Baabda Palace. Relying on Christians alone, as
Samir Gagegea is doing, is no longer sufficient
for Aoun. As a president he would need broad
consensus from the Lebanese public, a majority of
which is Shi'ite.
For now his campaign
seems to be opposed to Western hegemony in
Lebanon, Saudi interference in Lebanese affairs,
and any talk of disarming Hezbollah. He accuses
March 14 of corruption and of keeping him away in
exile for so many years just to please the
Syrians. If there is anyone to blame for the
1990s, he argues, it is Rafik Hariri and his team,
who legitimized the Syrians in Lebanon.
The Syrians are worried about Aoun. The
March 14 Coalition does not want him president
because it fears the influence of a strong
Christian who undoubtedly would overshadow his
Sunni prime minister.
In such a troubled
scenario, where none of the candidates is
acceptable to any party, the chances for weaker -
untested - men become higher. One is naturally
Salameh. The other is law professor Chibli Mallat,
who is an independent backed by nobody. His power
lies in his weakness at this stage - a potential
president who can be manipulated by all parties.
This might be the kind of compromise candidate of
whom all parties are speaking.
Outgoing
President Emile Lahoud has threatened that if
Parliament fails to elect his replacement by
November, he will appoint a military government
minutes before leaving office. If that drastic
action is taken, then Lebanon is back to Square 1
- or worse.
Sami Moubayed is a
Syrian political analyst.
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