Page 2 of 2 Ahmadinejad scores 'fair'
in mid-term report By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
to enhance Iran's Islamist ties of solidarity, particularly within the OIC
(Organization of Islamic Conference); the OIC, like NAM, has provided solid
support for Iran's nuclear rights.
Projecting power with principles, championing NAM's cause of a multi-polar
world order and the rights of oppressed Palestinians, while maintaining good
relations with the new governments in Kabul and Baghdad, as well as with
practically all of the other neighboring states and "near-neighbors" in Central
Asia, the
Caucasus, and the Middle East, these are among the chief foreign policy pluses
cited by Ahmadinejad's supporters. There are, however, several problem areas
that paint a somewhat different, less glorious, picture, including the
following:
Iran's policy in the Caspian Sea region has been neglected. In light of the
upcoming summit of the leaders of the five Caspian littoral states in Tehran in
mid-October, Iran's relative neglect of this facet of the country's foreign
policy has begun to receive public attention and the upcoming summit provides
an opportunity for Ahmadinejad to quiet his critics by causing a much-needed
breakthrough in the stalled, marathon negotiations on the legal status of the
Caspian Sea. Russia, which has already parcelled out parts of the Caspian Sea
to Kazakhastan and Azerbaijan,(1) must show serious initiative as well,
otherwise this summit will turn into another failure, as was the case in the
Asghabat summit.(2) But, of course, this summit is Russia's opportunity to
prove its friendship with Iran, by committing itself to complete the Bushehr
power plant irrespective of the nuclear row.
Iran-Russia relations need improvement. Indeed, the current setbacks in
relations, represent a minus on Ahmadinejad's record, and yet the situation can
be reversed with deft diplomacy, due to shared Iranian and Russian
apprehensions about the US's interventionist policies, NATO's eastward
expansion, and the like.
Iran's EU policy needs a facelift. Iran cannot realistically afford the present
negative trend in its relations with Europe, Iran's main trade partner. Thirty
seven percent of Iran's foreign trade is with Europe, and yet almost all the
relevant statistics about Iran-EU trade in 2006 reflect a declining trend
which, when combined with the new French president's anti-Iran stance, will
likely continue barring a breakthrough in the nuclear stalemate. Iranian
officials have recently gone on the offensive, reminding the French in
particular that their national interests will be harmed if they persist in
their Iran bashing. France is the leading lender to Iran, with Iran owing some
US$5.8 billion to the French banks, France depends on Iran for oil and gas
imports, and Iran has signed major contracts with French firms. According to
Tehran, it is unwise for President Nicholas Sarkozy to get on the US bandwagon
against Iran since that would harm French economic interests.
In conclusion, the above cursory look at Ahmadinejad's foreign policy is of
course not a substitute for an in-depth, critical assessment at the level of
country-to-country, regional, and international units of analysis with the help
of appropriate methodology and "risk analysis". The compass of such a mid-term
report can shed much light on the areas where Ahmadinejad needs to show more
energy and imagination, where continuity and or adjustments or even
discontinuities are needed, for the remainder of his presidency.
Notes (1) Iran's relations with the republic of Azerbaijan have become
tense again, due to the publication of a map in Baku that depicts Iran as part
of ancient Azerbaijan. Iranian politicians and press have lashed out at the
Azeri government for allowing this to happen, reminding them that Baku was a
part of Iran until the Russian-Iranian wars of the early 19th century that led
to the peace treaties of Golestan and Turkmenchai, ceding not only Baku but
also many other parts of the Caucasus from Iran.
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