Page 2 of 2 Political infighting
hinders Lebanon stability By Benedetta Berti
the future chances for dialogue with the opposition. Furthermore, Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora - in what is likely to be perceived as a contentious
move by the opposition - asked the United Nations and the newly established UN
international tribunal for Lebanon to help investigate the killing.
The international community reacted with similar condemnation, and reiterated
its interest in seeing the current Lebanese political
crisis promptly resolved, as the current stalemate is seen as potentially
destabilizing for the entire region. In this regard, the European Union urged
Lebanon to overcome the current impasse and proceed with the presidential
elections.
A similar statement, calling for the Lebanese elections to be "independent and
free from foreign influence" came from the UN Security Council on the day
following Ghanem's assassination. This declaration was later criticized by
pro-Syrian parliamentary speaker Berri, who asked the UN not to interfere with
Lebanese affairs. Another (unintended) effect of Ghanem's killing in the
international arena has been the renewal of international attention on the UN
tribunal established to investigate the 2005 killing of Hariri. As an indicator
of this trend, the United States recently pledged to contribute US$5 million to
the tribunal. The tribunal, in fact, is seen as a potentially effective way to
place a constraint over Syrian influence on Lebanese politics.
Finally, official statements from both Iranian and Syrian officials condemned
the killing. Iran, unsurprisingly, sided with the Hezbollah-led opposition and
declared: "Iran backs ongoing actions including Lebanon's Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri's compromise plan to solve the country's political crisis." Despite
official denials of Syrian involvement in the current escalation of political
violence, it seems quite obvious that the country would benefit greatly from
avoiding the replacement of pro-Syrian Lahoud with a majority candidate, and
that it could use the current polarization and ungovernability to re-establish
its influence over Lebanon.
Conclusion
The escalation of political violence and the failure to reach an agreement
among the parties led to the failure of the first round of presidential
elections. On September 25, the opposition bloc decided to boycott the
parliamentary session, denying the March 14 alliance the required two-thirds
quorum to elect the new Lebanese president. The parliament will now reconvene
on October 23.
If a consensus candidate is not nominated by then, the majority parties have
already declared that they would proceed to elect a candidate relying on a
simple majority. This outcome would be extremely problematic, as it would
likely lead to the rejection of the presidential nominee by the opposition
parties, with the subsequent designation of an alternative candidate. The
possibility of having two parallel governments operating within Lebanon would
only deepen the political crisis and create a semi-permanent state of
ungovernability.
Furthermore, opposition presidential candidate Michel Aoun expressed his strong
rejection to this scenario by declaring: "Our message is clear: the election by
a simple majority would be a declaration of war …The issue of the legal quorum
is not open to discussion, and countries that back such a president [elected by
a simple majority] will have to dispatch troops to protect him." This statement
is particularly relevant, as it confirms the hypothesis that a unilateral
election by the majority forces would lead to renewed factional divisions and
violence, with an enormous potential for escalation.
Additionally, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi recently confirmed that both
opposition and pro-government groups are currently running armed training camps
across the country, a factor that only enhances the potential for internal
strife and inter-ethnic violence.
Finally, renewed internal hostilities between the pro-government and opposition
parties could enhance Syria's role in Lebanon, and it is difficult to predict
whether its involvement would be limited to logistics assistance, or whether
the country would consider more direct participation to support the
Hezbollah-led opposition.
On the other hand, even a continuation of the current stalemate and the failure
to nominate a successor to Lahoud before the end of his term would be
detrimental to Lebanese stability, especially as the parties would hardly agree
on any viable interim solution. Francois Bassil, head of the Association of
Banks of Lebanon, recently stated that a renewed political impasse could lead
to a widespread and severe economic crisis, which would further contribute to
destabilizing and polarizing the country. Furthermore, a weak and paralyzed
Lebanon would impair the country's national security and it would increase the
threat of Islamist militants - in some cases connected to transnational
terrorist networks such as al-Qaeda and operating within Lebanon - to openly
challenge the government and assert their influence.
The best way to avoid this predicament would be the appointment of a consensus
candidate between the two main political coalitions. In the days following the
failed presidential elections, there have been a few positive steps in this
direction. A first potential breakthrough was the meeting between parliamentary
speaker Berri and prominent anti-Syrian leader Saad Hariri to discuss the
nomination of a joint candidate. These talks were positively greeted by
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, who could play an important role by
legitimizing the consensus candidate chosen by the two coalitions.
Furthermore, there have been talks about potential joint presidential nominees,
such as Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh or army chief General Michel
Suleiman - who enjoys a wide degree of popular support, representing the only
stable institution in Lebanon. A negotiated agreement between the parties would
hopefully lead to the beginning of a national reconciliation process, and
ultimately to a normalization of the Lebanese political arena.
The next two weeks will be crucial in determining the short term future of
Lebanese politics and whether it will be characterized by the renewal of a
national reconciliation process, or by increased polarization and instability.
The ability of the local political leadership to agree on a presidential
candidate, along with the effective prevention of further episodes of political
violence in the weeks preceding the October elections will be crucial factors
in shaping Lebanon's political horizon.
Published with permission of the
Power and Interest News Report, an analysis-based publication
that seeks to provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
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