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2 Turkey approaches its 'finest
hour' By Sami Moubayed
member state would be considered an
attack on all of them combined, calling for
collective defense. Turkey has been a member of
NATO since 1952, and since then Article 5 has only
been implemented once, after September 11, 2001,
when it came to defending American security. The
Turks claim that the PKK is to them what al-Qaeda
is to America. They wonder whether the US would
tolerate a silent Turkey if al-Qaeda launched a new
terrorist attack on
Washington, DC, or New York City?
The
international media are abuzz with editorials on
how far the Turks will go in their military
threats against the PKK. Many say very far.
Others, however, remain skeptical, saying that
Turkey will not engage in a full-scale war that
could damage its relations with Iraq and the
United States. One Turkish columnist even wrote:
"If Turkey intervenes in northern Iraq, it will be
the beginning of the break-up of Turkey." That
argument is hard to believe; it sounds almost
ludicrous that a military operation could spell
Armageddon for Ankara. On the contrary, a standoff
with the PKK, or a "surgical strike" into Iraqi
Kurdistan, would do wonders for Erdogan.
Turkish unity Let us not forget
that combating the PKK is one thing on which all
Turks seem to agree. There is no disagreement at
any level of the political spectrum, from radical
secularists to ultra-conservatives, on the need to
root out terrorism on Turkey's border with Iraq.
By taking a tough stance against the PKK, Erdogan
brings disgruntled secularists - and the military
officers - under his wing.
The officers,
loyal to the secularism of Kemalist Turkey, have
believes for the past four years that Erdogan had
a hidden Islamic agenda. Signals coming out of the
Prime Minister's Office were wrongly received by
members of the military establishment - sometimes
on purpose. The fact that his wife is veiled, that
he has improved relations with Palestine, Iran and
Syria, and that his party does have a moderate
Islamic program all sent alarms ringing in the
Turkish army, whose officers consider themselves
"vanguards" of secular Turkey.
Changes in
Turkey's foreign policy, however, did not
negatively affect its relationships with the
European Union, to which Turkey is seeking
admittance. Erdogan has always argued that a party
pursuing a leftist Islamic agenda would never seek
membership in the European Union. The officers and
secularists were not listening, busy trying to
discredit the government.
They panicked
when the AKP ran for office again this year,
claiming that its platform, and the candidacy of
then presidential candidate Abdullah Gul, were "a
threat to the secular and democratic nature of the
Turkish Republic". The thought of a veiled woman -
Gul's wife, the current first lady - at the
presidential palace, was seemingly too much for
them to bear. The military delivered an unusually
sharp warning to the AKP and secularists came out
with approximately 400,000 people, demonstrating
against the ruling party in the capital Ankara.
One of the slogans read: "We want neither sharia
[Islamic law] nor another coup, but a democratic
Turkey."
In the past, the Turkish general
staff has often proved that they will not hesitate
in using brutal force to defend their powers. The
Turkish military has carried out no fewer than
four coups in recent history; in 1960, 1971, 1980
and 1997. They were seemingly on alert to do it
again. Justice Minister Cemil Cicek denounced the
threats and declared that, according to the
constitution, "the army is subordinate to the
prime minister". In a democratic constitutional
state, it is "inconceivable" that the general
staff sets itself against the government, he said.
This summer, some observers believed that
if the seculars failed to win the elections, the
US and Israel would spark off a confrontation
between the PKK and Erdogan, via the Iraqi border.
That would give the military establishment enough
ammunition to use against the prime minister,
having failed to nail him at the polls. It would
give them justification to launch a coup, claiming
that he was unable to bring security to Turkey.
Well, clearly, they have tried to do so,
not expecting an ultra-nationalistic stance from
the prime minister. He literarily overshadowed
seculars and officers who claimed to defend Turkey
better than the prime minister. The US today
cannot find a single officer in Turkey - if they
are contemplating a coup to oust the AKP - willing
to jeopardize his career by coming to blows with
Erdogan. The man has simply become too popular.
Written appeal Not only has
Erdogan stretched a hand to adversaries like
seculars and officers but also to disgruntled
Kurds and Armenians. To the Kurds he has pumped a
lot of government money to improve their districts
in southern Turkey. As for the Armenians, they are
furious that the US Congress has delayed passing a
nonbinding resolution, claiming that the Ottoman
Army committed genocide against Armenian Turks
during World War I. Put up by the Democrats, it
was strongly opposed by Ankara, and postponed by
Bush, who feared that Erdogan could respond either
by shelling Kurdistan or by cutting off supply
lines to US troops stationed to Iran, running
through Turkey.
Defense Secretary Robert
Gates also lobbied against the resolution, saying
that congressional approval could damage relations
with Turkey, "perhaps beyond repair". He added,
"Having worked this issue in the last Bush
administration, I don't think the Turks are
bluffing. I think it is meaningful to them. I
think there is a very real risk."
Erdogan
recently wrote an article for the Western media,
saying, "While we search for ways to address this
painful issue [the events of World War I] and
develop our relations with Armenia, we cannot live
in the past. Our sincere efforts for dialogue and
reconciliation is on the table." He then proposed
a joint historical commission to revisit the
killings of 1915. His article may not be enough,
but it is a symbolic message telling the world,
"We want more friends and fewer enemies for
Turkey."
And then there is Kirkuk One theory says that in addition to anger at
what the PKK is doing, Turkey is opposed to the
very essence of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurds
(including the PKK) want to create a Kurdish state
out of southeastern Turkey, northeastern Iraq,
northeastern Syria and northwestern Iran. They now
have their eyes set on oil-rich Kirkuk, which as
of the late 1990s still had a reserve of 10
billion barrels.
They plan on annexing it
to Kurdistan. If given to the Kurds, with its 1
million barrels per day, the city would add
tremendous political, geographical and financial
wealth to Iraqi Kurds, which in turn would
threaten neighboring countries like Turkey, Iran
and Syria.
The Turks fear that autonomy
and stability in Kurdistan mean that the Kurds
will encourage more violence against Turkey and
instigate, either directly or by virtue of their
"success story" in Iraqi, their Turkish
counterparts to demand similar autonomy within
Turkey.
That should never happen, believes
the prime minister. Remembering British statesman
Winston Churchill's famous quote during World War
II, that Britain's "finest hour" had come in
resisting Adolf Hitler, Erdogan and Turkey could
now be approaching their "finest hour".
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
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