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2 Turks have might, but it will be a
fight By Richard M Bennett
branch to the Turkish government,
claiming in an interview in the The Times of
London that he hoped a peaceful solution could be
found in the form of a devolved government for the
Kurdish areas of southern Turkey.
The HPG
successor to the ARGK and probable controller of
both the TAK and the HRK groups has a maximum of
about 3,500 armed insurgents equipped with an
extensive range of modern and
highly effective small arms
and light support weapons, including mortars,
anti-tank weapons and probably shoulder-launched
anti-aircraft missiles.
It is unlikely
that they have more than a small number of heavier
weapons hidden away in their border retreats.
Shortages of spare parts, ammunition and the lack
of training makes their effective use even less
likely. Unless the "official" forces of Iraqi
Kurdistan, the Peshmerga, become involved on their
side, then the balance will remain very heavily
weighted on the side of the Turkish military.
Endgame Time is running out for
a peaceful solution and the Turkish military is
straining at the leash. Further military action
seems almost inevitable as regional forces and
national interests conflict to prevent anything
other than the merest chance of a peaceful
outcome.
The Kurds are still far removed
from establishing a united homeland and indeed the
main players in this troubled region appear to be
intent on preventing a Kurdistan ever appearing on
the map as an independent nation. Few in Syria,
Iran or Iraq will be seriously unhappy if Turkish
patience finally snaps and a determined military
operation is launched to not only destroy the PKK
camps along the border, but perhaps even a more
widespread incursion that could undermine the
future of the present Iraqi Kurdish administration
in Kirkuk.
The Peshmerga, the armed forces
of the de facto Kurdish Regional Government of
northern Iraq, are now a largely conventional
force of over 100,000 and to some extent have been
integrated into the main structure of the new
Iraqi security forces.
Nationalism,
however, runs very deep among the beleaguered
Kurds and though publicly the administration and
its armed forces have distanced themselves from
the PKK, it remains to be seen whether this would
long survive any serious military action against
the Kurdish hinterland by a foreign power. Indeed,
the regional government has already publicly vowed
to resist any Turkish incursion, though no
official military response can be guaranteed if
the Turks restrict the attacks to the border
camps.
Only Israel and the US seem to have
a genuine stake in a future independent Kurdish
homeland and both Tel Aviv and Washington stand to
be the biggest losers, apart from the Kurds
themselves, should current tensions explode into a
major conflict in northern Iraq.
Note 1. Order of
battle/organization: Army command
(GHQ). It has one armored division, one
infantry division, three filo (squadrons) of
AH-1W/P attack helicopters.
The
First Army is deployed widely in the
European part of Turkey known historically as
Thrace, with responsibility for the defense of
that province, the Bosphorus and Dardanelles
straits, and the Kocaeli peninsula. It consists of
the First Army HQ Selimiye Barracks, Istanbul; 3rd
Corps, HQ Istanbul; 5th Corps, HQ Tekirdag; 2nd
Corps, HQ Gelibolu; 15th Corps, HQ Izmit; three
independent armored brigades; five independent
mechanized brigades; two independent infantry
brigades; 1st commando brigade, HQ Kayseri; 2nd
Commando Brigade, HQ Bolu; 5th Commando Brigade -
HQ Ankara.
The Second Army.
Based in southeastern Anatolia with a
defensive deployment facing Syria, Iraq and Iran.
This is the main source of units involved in
counter-insurgency against the Kurdish militants.
Shortly before the Gulf War of 1991, the Second
Army was deployed along the Iraqi border,
supported by some units from the Third Army. It
consist of 2nd Army, HQ Malatya; 6th Corps, HQ
Adana; 7th Corps, HQ Diyarbakir; two independent
armored brigades; five independent mechanized
brigades; three independent infantry brigades; 2nd
Commando Regiment, HQ Mardin (7th Corps).
The Third Army. Deployed
throughout the mountains and valleys of eastern
Anatolia, covering the borders with Georgia and
Armenia. Under the new structure, most of the
armored, mechanized and commando brigades are
located in the central region with the mission of
rapidly reinforcing brigades in each theater as
required and acting particularly as a reserve for
Second Army operations against the Kurds. It
consist of 3rd Army HQ, Erzingan; 8th Corps, HQ
Elazig; one independent armored brigade; three
independent mechanized brigades; three independent
infantry brigades.
The Aegean Army
(sometimes called the Fourth Army).
Organized in the mid-1970s in response to tensions
with Greece in the Aegean Sea, it is responsible
for the vast area facing the Aegean coast from the
Dardanelles in the north to the southernmost Greek
offshore islands. Turkish commanders have
described the Aegean Army as being largely
composed of training elements from which the major
army units are supplied. It consist of the 4th
Army HQ, Izmir; 4th Corps, HQ Ankara; two
independent armored brigades; three independent
mechanized brigades; three independent infantry
brigades; 3rd Amphibious Marine Commando Brigade,
HQ Foca/Izmir; 4th Commando Brigade, HQ Iskenderun
(Aegean/Cyprus); 5th Commando Regiment, HQ
Gokceada; 9th Corps (North Cyprus); 28th Infantry
Division, HQ Asha; 39th Infantry Division, HQ
Morphorus; 14th Independent Armored Brigade, HQ
Asha; four aviation battalions (two training); one
Presidential Guard regiment; five border defense
regiments; 26 border defense battalions.
The air force The two Tactical
Air Force Commands (TACs) split the country into
east and west. The first TAC consists of four
major air wings situated in the western part of
Turkey. The headquarters are situated in
Eskisehir. The headquarters of the second TAC in
Diyarbakir has the responsibility of three major
air wings in the east and south of Turkey. In
addition, there are a further two commands:
Tactical Air Force Command, HQ Izmir; and Air
Logistics Command, responsible for fulfilling
logistic needs.
The navy While
not directly involved in action against the
Kurdish insurgency, the navy still plays a
significant role in defense of the nation, with
three operational areas: the Northern Sea Area
Command, based at Istanbul; the Fleet Command at
Gulcuk; and the Southern Sea Area Command at
Izmir.
The principle combatants include:
six Gaziantep (OH Perry) class missile frigates;
four Muavenet (Knox) class ASW missile frigates;
four Barbaros class (MEKO 200TN type) missile
frigates; four Yavuz class (MEKO 200 type) missile
frigates and six Burak (D'Estienne D'Orves) class
ASW missile corvettes.
There are five
Preveze class (Type 209/1400) class coastal
submarines and six Atilay class (Type 209/1200)
coastal submarines.
Fast patrol craft
include missile and torpedo boats.
Richard M Bennett, intelligence
analyst, AFI Research.
AFI Research provides
expert information on the world's intelligence
services, armed forces and conflicts. Contact
rbmedia@supanet.com.
(Copyright 2007 AFI
Research. Used with permission.)
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